Our main result is a matching upper and lower bound for the secretary ranking problem.

Live cell microscopy captures 5-D $(x,y,z,channel,time)$ movies that display patterns of cellular motion and signaling dynamics. We present here an approach to finding spatiotemporal patterns of cell signaling dynamics in 5-D live cell microscopy movies unique in requiring no a priori knowledge of expected pattern dynamics, and no training data. The proposed cell signaling structure function (SSF) is a Kolmogorov structure function that optimally measures cell signaling state as nuclear intensity w.r.t. surrounding cytoplasm, a significant improvement compared to the current state-of-the-art cytonuclear ratio. SSF kymographs store at each spatiotemporal cell centroid the SSF value, or a functional output such as velocity. Patterns of similarity are identified via the metric normalized compression distance (NCD). The NCD is a reproducing kernel for a Hilbert space that represents the input SSF kymographs as points in a low dimensional embedding that optimally captures the pattern similarity identified by the NCD throughout the space. The only parameter is the expected cell radii ($\mu m$). A new formulation of the cluster structure function optimally estimates how meaningful an embedding from the RKHS representation. Results are presented quantifying the impact of ERK and AKT signaling between different oncogenic mutations, and by the relation between ERK signaling and cellular velocity patterns for movies of 2-D monolayers of human breast epithelial (MCF10A) cells, 3-D MCF10A spheroids under optogenetic manipulation of ERK, and human induced pluripotent stem cells .

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on exogenous variables, and functional assignments. Specifying such models can be extremely difficult in practice. The process requires substantial domain expertise, and does not scale easily to large systems, multiple systems, or novel system modifications. At the same time, many application domains, such as molecular biology, are rich in structured causal knowledge that is qualitative in nature. This manuscript proposes a general approach for querying a causal biological knowledge graph, and converting the qualitative result into a quantitative structural causal model that can learn from data to answer the question. We demonstrate the feasibility, accuracy and versatility of this approach using two case studies in systems biology. The first demonstrates the appropriateness of the underlying assumptions and the accuracy of the results. The second demonstrates the versatility of the approach by querying a knowledge base for the molecular determinants of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced cytokine storm, and performing counterfactual inference to estimate the causal effect of medical countermeasures for severely ill patients.