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Unsupervised Identification and Removal of Spurious Correlations During Fine-Tuning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fine-tuning a pretrained language model on a curated dataset can produce spurious correlations between the fine-tuning task and unintended latent factors -- such as misaligned personas or political slant -- that the curation procedure has entangled with the task. The model can latch onto these spurious correlations, leading to bias and reduced out-of-distribution generalisation. We prove that under reasonable assumptions on task complexity and the spurious correlation, such latent factors can be identified, without supervision, from the weights of a naive LoRA fine-tune. Existing approaches to removing bias, such as activation steering, remove identified factors from residual-stream activations, either at inference or during training. We argue, however, that the goal should be to remove the spurious correlation, not the latent factor itself, as the pretrained model may rely on it for genuine task signal. To enable this, we propose GRASP, GRadient projection of Associated Spurious Patterns, which prevents the model from acquiring new reliance on the identified latent factor while preserving any pretrained content along it. We validate on three fine-tuning tasks. The first two involve emergent misalignment, where fine-tuning on a narrow task -- in our case, writing insecure code and giving bad medical advice -- leads to misaligned responses on unrelated topics. Here our method completely removes misalignment in the insecure code case and reduces them by ~5x in the bad medical advice case, beating all baselines in the trade-off between misalignment-reduction and task-preservation. The last is a novel political-bias experiment, where fine-tuning on right-skewed Reddit financial-advice data causes political-lean drift on unrelated topics. Here our method reduces drift by more than half, while improving financial task performance, beating all baselines.


Distributionally Robust Transfer Learning with Structurally Missing Covariates, with Application to Cross-National Cardiac Arrest Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.


Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Making calibrated online predictions is a central challenge in modern AI systems. Much of the existing literature focuses on fully adversarial environments where outcomes may be arbitrary, leading to conservative algorithms that can perform suboptimally in more benign settings, such as when outcomes are nearly stationary. This gap raises a natural question: can we design online prediction algorithms whose calibration error automatically adapts to the degree of non-stationarity in the environment, smoothly interpolating between i.i.d. and adversarial regimes? We answer this question in the affirmative and develop a suite of algorithms that achieve adaptive calibration guarantees under multiple calibration measures. Specifically, with $T$ being the number of rounds, $K$ being the unknown number of i.i.d. segments of the environment, and $C\in[0,T]$ being another unknown non-stationary measure defined as the minimal $\ell_1$ deviation of the mean outcomes, our algorithms attain $\widetilde{O}(\min\{\sqrt{T}+(TC)^{\frac{1}{3}}, \sqrt{KT}\})$ for $\ell_1$ calibration error and $\widetilde{O}(\min\{(1+C)^{\frac{1}{3}}, K\})$ for both $\ell_2$ and pseudo KL calibration error. These bounds match the optimal rates in the stationary case ($C=0$ and $K=1$) and recover known guarantees in the fully adversarial regime ($C, K=Ω(T)$). Our approach builds on and extends prior work [Hu et al., 2026, Luo et al., 2025], introducing an epoch-based scheduling together with a novel non-uniform partition of the prediction space that allocates finer resolution near the underlying ground truth.


Do Not Trust The Auctioneer: Learning to Bid in Feedback-Manipulated Auctions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Shilling is the use of artificial bids to make competition appear stronger and push prices upward. We study repeated first-price auctions in which shilling affects feedback but not allocation: the learner wins or loses against the real competing bid, but after a loss observes the maximum of the real bid and an independent shill bid. Thus the manipulation changes what the learner observes and hence how it learns to bid, without changing the outcome of the current auction. We analyze regret with respect to the best bid benchmark, assuming that the shill-bid distribution is known. Even then, shilling can mask the real bid, while useful side information appears only through intermittent low-shill events. Our algorithm combines a robust interval-elimination branch, which ignores the shilled report and achieves the dynamic-pricing rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$, with an optimistic branch that debiases losing-side reports and exploits the resulting suffix information when it is reliable and achieves the first-price auctions rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$. A validation and racing procedure lets the algorithm use these optimistic updates without knowing the right scale or feedback geometry in advance. We complement the upper bounds with a matching lower bound, up to logarithmic factors, in the single-active-region case. Overall, the results show that even feedback-only shilling can sharply alter the statistical difficulty of repeated bidding.


Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Representation Autoencoders (RAE) replace traditional VAE with pretrained vision encoders. In this paper, we systematically investigate several design choices and find three insights which simplify and improve RAE. First, we study a generalized formulation where the representation is defined as sum of the last k encoder layers rather than solely the final layer. This simple change greatly improves reconstruction without encoder finetuning or specialized data (e.g., text, faces). Second, we study the prevalent assumption that RAE (using pretrained representation as encoder) replaces representation alignment (REPA), which distills the same representation to intermediate layers instead. Through large-scale empirical analysis, we uncover a surprising finding: RAE and REPA exhibit complementary working mechanisms, allowing the same representation to be used as both encoder and target for intermediate diffusion layers. Finally, the original RAE struggles with classifier-free guidance (CFG) and requires training a second, weaker diffusion model for AutoGuidance (AG). We show that REPA itself can be viewed as x-prediction in RAE latent space. By simply re-parameterizing the output of the DiT model, it can provide guidance for "free". Overall, RAEv2 leads to more than 10x faster convergence over the original RAE, achieving a state-of-the-art gFID of 1.06 in just 80 epochs on ImageNet-256. On FDr^k, RAEv2 achieves a state-of-the-art 2.17 at just 80 epochs compared to the previous best 3.26 (800 epochs) without any post-training. This motivates EP_FID@k (epochs to reach unguided gFID <= k) as a measure of training efficiency. RAEv2 attains an EP_FID@2 of 35 epochs, versus 177 for the original RAE. We also validate our approach across diverse settings for text-to-image generation and navigation world models, showing consistent improvements. Code is available at https://raev2.github.io.


QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning generative models in settings where the source and target distributions are only specified through unpaired samples is gaining in importance. Here, one frequently-used model are Schrödinger bridges (SB), which represent the most likely evolution between both endpoint distributions. To accelerate training, simulation-free SBs avoid the path simulation of the original SB models. However, learning simulation-free SBs requires paired data; a coupling of the source and target samples is obtained as the solution of the entropic optimal transport (OT) problem. As obtaining the optimal global coupling is infeasible in many practical cases, the entropic OT problem is iteratively solved on minibatches instead. Still, the repeated cost remains substantial and the locality can distort the global transport geometry. We propose quantized diffusion Schrödinger bridges (QDSB), which compute the endpoint coupling on anchor-quantized endpoint distributions and lift the resulting plan back to original data points through cell-wise sampling. We show that the regularized optimal coupling is stable w.r.t. anchor quantization, with an error controlled by the quality of the anchor approximation. In real-world experiments, QDSB matches the sample quality of existing baselines, requiring substantially less time. Code and data are available at github.com/mathefuchs/qdsb.


It Just Takes Two: Scaling Amortized Inference to Large Sets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose elements depend not only on the target but also on unknown factors shared across the set. Optimal inference therefore requires treating the set jointly, which in turn requires training the estimator at the deployment set size -- a regime where memory and compute quickly become prohibitive. We introduce a simple, theoretically grounded strategy that decouples representation learning from posterior modeling. Our method trains a mean-pool Deep Set on sets of size at most two, producing an encoder that generalizes to arbitrary set sizes. The inference head is then finetuned on pre-aggregated embeddings, making training cost essentially independent of the deployment set size N. Across scalar, image, multi-view 3D, molecular, and high-dimensional conditional generation benchmarks with N in the thousands, our approach matches or outperforms standard baselines at a fraction of the compute.


Symbolic Regression via Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning - specifically deep learning - techniques have shown their capabilities in approximating dynamics from data, but a shortcoming of traditional deep learning is that there is little insight into the underlying mapping beyond its numerical output for a given input. This limits their utility in analysis beyond simple prediction. Simultaneously, a number of strategies exist which identify models based on a fixed dictionary of basis functions, but most either require some intuition or insight about the system, or are susceptible to overfitting or a lack of parsimony. Here we present a novel approach that combines the flexibility and accuracy of deep learning approaches with the utility of symbolic solutions: a deep neural network that generates a symbolic expression for the governing equations. We first describe the architecture for our model, then show the accuracy of our algorithm across a range of classical dynamical systems. The dynamics of quantities of interest are widely modeled A number of authors have approached system identificaas differential equations, often derived from first princi-tion by fitting coefficients of a linear combination of basis 3ples. However, this is not always possible, especially whenfunctions, dating at least back to Crutchfield and McNamara . The The set of basis functions typically includes nonlinear terms, identification of models from data has seen significant ad-for example terms which would arise in a Taylor series exvances with the advent of machine learning. While deeppansion about the origin of the system3-6 or a broader class neural networks have enabled sufficient accuracy in fore-of functions7. The coefficients of the basis functions are decasting dynamic data with unprecedented versatility, thetermined through comparison of the original data points with models they represent lack closed-form expressions thatpoints from computed solutions to the fitted models. Varican be conducive to interpretation and analysis.