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Deep Learning-based Prediction of Clinical Trial Enrollment with Uncertainty Estimates

Do, Tien Huu, Masquelier, Antoine, Lee, Nae Eoun, Crowther, Jonathan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Clinical trials are a systematic endeavor to assess the safety and efficacy of new drugs or treatments. Conducting such trials typically demands significant financial investment and meticulous planning, highlighting the need for accurate predictions of trial outcomes. Accurately predicting patient enrollment, a key factor in trial success, is one of the primary challenges during the planning phase. In this work, we propose a novel deep learning-based method to address this critical challenge. Our method, implemented as a neural network model, leverages pre-trained language models (PLMs) to capture the complexities and nuances of clinical documents, transforming them into expressive representations. These representations are then combined with encoded tabular features via an attention mechanism. To account for uncertainties in enrollment prediction, we enhance the model with a probabilistic layer based on the Gamma distribution, which enables range estimation. We apply the proposed model to predict clinical trial duration, assuming site-level enrollment follows a Poisson-Gamma process. We carry out extensive experiments on real-world clinical trial data, and show that the proposed method can effectively predict the number of patients enrolled at a number of sites for a given clinical trial, outperforming established baseline models.


The Choice of Divergence: A Neglected Key to Mitigating Diversity Collapse in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Reward

Li, Long, Hao, Jiaran, Liu, Jason Klein, Zhou, Zhijian, Miao, Yanting, Pang, Wei, Tan, Xiaoyu, Chu, Wei, Wang, Zhe, Pan, Shirui, Qu, Chao, Qi, Yuan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A central paradox in fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) with Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Reward (RLVR) is the frequent degradation of multi-attempt performance (Pass@k) despite improvements in single-attempt accuracy (Pass@1). This is often accompanied by catastrophic forgetting, where models lose previously acquired skills. While various methods have been proposed, the choice and function of the divergence term have been surprisingly unexamined as a proactive solution. We argue that standard RLVR objectives -- both those using the mode-seeking reverse KL-divergence and those forgoing a divergence term entirely -- lack a crucial mechanism for knowledge retention. The reverse-KL actively accelerates this decay by narrowing the policy, while its absence provides no safeguard against the model drifting from its diverse knowledge base. We propose a fundamental shift in perspective: using the divergence term itself as the solution. Our framework, Diversity-Preserving Hybrid RL (DPH-RL), leverages mass-covering f-divergences (like forward-KL and JS-divergence) to function as a rehearsal mechanism. By continuously referencing the initial policy, this approach forces the model to maintain broad solution coverage. Extensive experiments on math and SQL generation demonstrate that DPH-RL not only resolves the Pass@k degradation but improves both Pass@1 and Pass@k in- and out-of-domain. Additionally, DPH-RL is more training-efficient because it computes f-divergence using generator functions, requiring only sampling from the initial policy and no online reference model. Our work highlights a crucial, overlooked axis for improving RLVR, demonstrating that the proper selection of a divergence measure is a powerful tool for building more general and diverse reasoning models.



Interactive Real-Time Speaker Diarization Correction with Human Feedback

He, Xinlu, Guan, Yiwen, Paurana, Badrivishal, Dai, Zilin, Whitehill, Jacob

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most automatic speech processing systems operate in "open loop" mode without user feedback about who said what; yet, human-in-the-loop workflows can potentially enable higher accuracy. We propose an LLM-assisted speaker diarization correction system that lets users fix speaker attribution errors in real time. The pipeline performs streaming ASR and diarization, uses an LLM to deliver concise summaries to the users, and accepts brief verbal feedback that is immediately incorporated without disrupting interactions. Moreover, we develop techniques to make the workflow more effective: First, a split-when-merged (SWM) technique detects and splits multi-speaker segments that the ASR erroneously attributes to just a single speaker. Second, online speaker enrollments are collected based on users' diarization corrections, thus helping to prevent speaker diarization errors from occurring in the future. LLM-driven simulations on the AMI test set indicate that our system substantially reduces DER by 9.92% and speaker confusion error by 44.23%. We further analyze correction efficacy under different settings, including summary vs full transcript display, the number of online enrollments limitation, and correction frequency.


Speaker Embeddings to Improve Tracking of Intermittent and Moving Speakers

Iatariene, Taous, Cui, Can, Guérin, Alexandre, Serizel, Romain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Speaker tracking methods often rely on spatial observations to assign coherent track identities over time. This raises limits in scenarios with intermittent and moving speakers, i.e., speakers that may change position when they are inactive, thus leading to discontinuous spatial trajectories. This paper proposes to investigate the use of speaker embeddings, in a simple solution to this issue. We propose to perform identity reassignment post-tracking, using speaker embeddings. We leverage trajectory-related information provided by an initial tracking step and multichannel audio signal. Beamforming is used to enhance the signal towards the speakers' positions in order to compute speaker embeddings. These are then used to assign new track identities based on an enrollment pool. We evaluate the performance of the proposed speaker embedding-based identity reassignment method on a dataset where speakers change position during inactivity periods. Results show that it consistently improves the identity assignment performance of neural and standard tracking systems. In particular, we study the impact of beamforming and input duration for embedding extraction.


Deep CNN Face Matchers Inherently Support Revocable Biometric Templates

Bhatta, Aman, King, Michael C., Bowyer, Kevin W.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One common critique of biometric authentication is that if an individual's biometric is compromised, then the individual has no recourse. The concept of revocable biometrics was developed to address this concern. A biometric scheme is revocable if an individual can have their current enrollment in the scheme revoked, so that the compromised biometric template becomes worthless, and the individual can re-enroll with a new template that has similar recognition power. We show that modern deep CNN face matchers inherently allow for a robust revocable biometric scheme. For a given state-of-the-art deep CNN backbone and training set, it is possible to generate an unlimited number of distinct face matcher models that have both (1) equivalent recognition power, and (2) strongly incompatible biometric templates. The equivalent recognition power extends to the point of generating impostor and genuine distributions that have the same shape and placement on the similarity dimension, meaning that the models can share a similarity threshold for a 1-in-10,000 false match rate. The biometric templates from different model instances are so strongly incompatible that the cross-instance similarity score for images of the same person is typically lower than the same-instance similarity score for images of different persons. That is, a stolen biometric template that is revoked is of less value in attempting to match the re-enrolled identity than the average impostor template. We also explore the feasibility of using a Vision Transformer (ViT) backbone-based face matcher in the revocable biometric system proposed in this work and demonstrate that it is less suitable compared to typical ResNet-based deep CNN backbones.


Target Speaker Extraction through Comparing Noisy Positive and Negative Audio Enrollments

Xu, Shitong, Yang, Yiyuan, Trigoni, Niki, Markham, Andrew

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Target speaker extraction focuses on isolating a specific speaker's voice from an audio mixture containing multiple speakers. To provide information about the target speaker's identity, prior works have utilized clean audio examples as conditioning inputs. However, such clean audio examples are not always readily available (e.g. It is impractical to obtain a clean audio example of a stranger's voice at a cocktail party without stepping away from the noisy environment). Limited prior research has explored extracting the target speaker's characteristics from noisy audio examples, which may include overlapping speech from disturbing speakers. In this work, we focus on target speaker extraction when multiple speakers are present during the enrollment stage, through leveraging differences between audio segments where the target speakers are speaking (Positive Enrollments) and segments where they are not (Negative Enrollments). Experiments show the effectiveness of our model architecture and the dedicated pretraining method for the proposed task. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in the proposed application settings and demonstrates strong generalizability across challenging and realistic scenarios.


Merging public elementary schools to reduce racial/ethnic segregation

Landry, Madison, Gillani, Nabeel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diverse schools can help address implicit biases and increase empathy, mutual respect, and reflective thought by fostering connections between students from different racial/ethnic, socioeconomic, and other backgrounds. Unfortunately, demographic segregation remains rampant in US public schools, despite over 70 years since the passing of federal legislation formally outlawing segregation by race. However, changing how students are assigned to schools can help foster more integrated learning environments. In this paper, we explore "school mergers" as one such under-explored, yet promising, student assignment policy change. School mergers involve merging the school attendance boundaries, or catchment areas, of schools and subsequently changing the grades each school offers. We develop an algorithm to simulate elementary school mergers across 200 large school districts serving 4.5 million elementary school students and find that pairing or tripling schools in this way could reduce racial/ethnic segregation by a median relative 20% -- and as much as nearly 60% in some districts -- while increasing driving times to schools by an average of a few minutes each way. Districts with many interfaces between racially/ethnically-disparate neighborhoods tend to be prime candidates for mergers. We also compare the expected results of school mergers to other typical integration policies, like redistricting, and find that different policies may be more or less suitable in different places. Finally, we make our results available through a public dashboard for policymakers and community members to explore further (https://mergers.schooldiversity.org). Together, our study offers new findings and tools to support integration policy-making across US public school districts.


Learning Multi-Manifold Embedding for Out-Of-Distribution Detection

Li, Jeng-Lin, Chang, Ming-Ching, Chen, Wei-Chao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is crucial for trustworthy AI in real-world applications. Leveraging recent advances in representation learning and latent embeddings, Various scoring algorithms estimate distributions beyond the training data. However, a single embedding space falls short in characterizing in-distribution data and defending against diverse OOD conditions. This paper introduces a novel Multi-Manifold Embedding Learning (MMEL) framework, optimizing hypersphere and hyperbolic spaces jointly for enhanced OOD detection. MMEL generates representative embeddings and employs a prototype-aware scoring function to differentiate OOD samples. It operates with very few OOD samples and requires no model retraining. Experiments on six open datasets demonstrate MMEL's significant reduction in FPR while maintaining a high AUC compared to state-of-the-art distance-based OOD detection methods. We analyze the effects of learning multiple manifolds and visualize OOD score distributions across datasets. Notably, enrolling ten OOD samples without retraining achieves comparable FPR and AUC to modern outlier exposure methods using 80 million outlier samples for model training.