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AT Proofs

Neural Information Processing Systems

We then follow the proof of Theorem 3 in Farnia and Tse [2016]. Our formulation differs from Nowak-Vila et al. [2020] in the fact that we allow probabilistic prediction to be ground truth. Proposition 4. Let G be a multi-graph. We follow the proof of Friesen [2019] for simple graphs. Proposition 5. Let G be a multi-graph.


Interpretable Multivariate Conformal Prediction with Fast Transductive Standardization

Fan, Yunjie, Sesia, Matteo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a conformal prediction method for constructing tight simultaneous prediction intervals for multiple, potentially related, numerical outputs given a single input. This method can be combined with any multi-target regression model and guarantees finite-sample coverage. It is computationally efficient and yields informative prediction intervals even with limited data. The core idea is a novel \emph{coordinate-wise} standardization procedure that makes residuals across output dimensions directly comparable, estimating suitable scaling parameters using the calibration data themselves. This does not require modeling of cross-output dependence nor auxiliary sample splitting. Implementing this idea requires overcoming technical challenges associated with transductive or full conformal prediction. Experiments on simulated and real data demonstrate this method can produce tighter prediction intervals than existing baselines while maintaining valid simultaneous coverage.


PAC-Bayes Bounds for Multivariate Linear Regression and Linear Autoencoders

Guo, Ruixin, Jin, Ruoming, Li, Xinyu, Zhou, Yang

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Linear Autoencoders (LAEs) have shown strong performance in state-of-the-art recommender systems. However, this success remains largely empirical, with limited theoretical understanding. In this paper, we investigate the generalizability -- a theoretical measure of model performance in statistical learning -- of multivariate linear regression and LAEs. We first propose a PAC-Bayes bound for multivariate linear regression, extending the earlier bound for single-output linear regression by Shalaeva et al., and establish sufficient conditions for its convergence. We then show that LAEs, when evaluated under a relaxed mean squared error, can be interpreted as constrained multivariate linear regression models on bounded data, to which our bound adapts. Furthermore, we develop theoretical methods to improve the computational efficiency of optimizing the LAE bound, enabling its practical evaluation on large models and real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our bound is tight and correlates well with practical ranking metrics such as Recall@K and NDCG@K.