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Predicting Targeted Therapy Resistance in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Using Multimodal Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lung cancer is the primary cause of cancer death globally, with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) emerging as its most prevalent subtype. Among NSCLC patients, approximately 32.3% have mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene. Osimertinib, a third-generation EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), has demonstrated remarkable efficacy in the treatment of NSCLC patients with activating and T790M resistance EGFR mutations. Despite its established efficacy, drug resistance poses a significant challenge for patients to fully benefit from osimertinib. The absence of a standard tool to accurately predict TKI resistance, including that of osimertinib, remains a critical obstacle. To bridge this gap, in this study, we developed an interpretable multimodal machine learning model designed to predict patient resistance to osimertinib among late-stage NSCLC patients with activating EGFR mutations, achieving a c-index of 0.82 on a multi-institutional dataset. This machine learning model harnesses readily available data routinely collected during patient visits and medical assessments to facilitate precision lung cancer management and informed treatment decisions. By integrating various data types such as histology images, next generation sequencing (NGS) data, demographics data, and clinical records, our multimodal model can generate well-informed recommendations. Our experiment results also demonstrated the superior performance of the multimodal model over single modality models (c-index 0.82 compared with 0.75 and 0.77), thus underscoring the benefit of combining multiple modalities in patient outcome prediction.


Development and Validation of a Dynamic Kidney Failure Prediction Model based on Deep Learning: A Real-World Study with External Validation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), a progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality, has become a significant global public health problem. At present, most of the models used for predicting the progression of CKD are static models. We aim to develop a dynamic kidney failure prediction model based on deep learning (KFDeep) for CKD patients, utilizing all available data on common clinical indicators from real-world Electronic Health Records (EHRs) to provide real-time predictions. Findings: A retrospective cohort of 4,587 patients from EHRs of Yinzhou, China, is used as the development dataset (2,752 patients for training, 917 patients for validation) and internal validation dataset (917 patients), while a prospective cohort of 934 patients from the Peking University First Hospital CKD cohort (PKUFH cohort) is used as the external validation dataset. The AUROC of the KFDeep model reaches 0.946 (95\% CI: 0.922-0.970) on the internal validation dataset and 0.805 (95\% CI: 0.763-0.847) on the external validation dataset, both surpassing existing models. The KFDeep model demonstrates stable performance in simulated dynamic scenarios, with the AUROC progressively increasing over time. Both the calibration curve and decision curve analyses confirm that the model is unbiased and safe for practical use, while the SHAP analysis and hidden layer clustering results align with established medical knowledge. Interpretation: The KFDeep model built from real-world EHRs enhances the prediction accuracy of kidney failure without increasing clinical examination costs and can be easily integrated into existing hospital systems, providing physicians with a continuously updated decision-support tool due to its dynamic design.


Effect of Clinical History on Predictive Model Performance for Renal Complications of Diabetes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes is a chronic disease characterised by a high risk of developing diabetic nephropathy, which, in turn, is the leading cause of end-stage chronic kidney disease. The early identification of individuals at heightened risk of such complications or their exacerbation can be of paramount importance to set a correct course of treatment. In the present work, from the data collected in the DARWIN-Renal (DApagliflozin Real-World evIdeNce-Renal) study, a nationwide multicentre retrospective real-world study, we develop an array of logistic regression models to predict, over different prediction horizons, the crossing of clinically relevant glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) thresholds for patients with diabetes by means of variables associated with demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, pathology, and therapeutic data. In doing so, we investigate the impact of information coming from patient's past visits on the model's predictive performance, coupled with an analysis of feature importance through the Boruta algorithm. Our models yield very good performance (AUROC as high as 0.98). We also show that the introduction of information from patient's past visits leads to improved model performance of up to 4%. The usefulness of past information is further corroborated by a feature importance analysis.


Understanding eGFR Trajectories and Kidney Function Decline via Large Multimodal Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) is an essential indicator of kidney function in clinical practice. Although traditional equations and Machine Learning (ML) models using clinical and laboratory data can estimate eGFR, accurately predicting future eGFR levels remains a significant challenge for nephrologists and ML researchers. Recent advances demonstrate that Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) can serve as robust foundation models for diverse applications. This study investigates the potential of LMMs to predict future eGFR levels with a dataset consisting of laboratory and clinical values from 50 patients. By integrating various prompting techniques and ensembles of LMMs, our findings suggest that these models, when combined with precise prompts and visual representations of eGFR trajectories, offer predictive performance comparable to existing ML models. This research extends the application of foundation models and suggests avenues for future studies to harness these models in addressing complex medical forecasting challenges.


Predicting Drug-Gene Relations via Analogy Tasks with Word Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing (NLP) is utilized in a wide range of fields, where words in text are typically transformed into feature vectors called embeddings. BioConceptVec is a specific example of embeddings tailored for biology, trained on approximately 30 million PubMed abstracts using models such as skip-gram. Generally, word embeddings are known to solve analogy tasks through simple vector arithmetic. For instance, $\mathrm{\textit{king}} - \mathrm{\textit{man}} + \mathrm{\textit{woman}}$ predicts $\mathrm{\textit{queen}}$. In this study, we demonstrate that BioConceptVec embeddings, along with our own embeddings trained on PubMed abstracts, contain information about drug-gene relations and can predict target genes from a given drug through analogy computations. We also show that categorizing drugs and genes using biological pathways improves performance. Furthermore, we illustrate that vectors derived from known relations in the past can predict unknown future relations in datasets divided by year.


Screening of BindingDB database ligands against EGFR, HER2, Estrogen, Progesterone and NF-kB receptors based on machine learning and molecular docking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Breast cancer, the second most prevalent cancer among women worldwide, necessitates the exploration of novel therapeutic approaches. To target the four subgroups of breast cancer "hormone receptor-positive and HER2-negative, hormone receptor-positive and HER2-positive, hormone receptor-negative and HER2-positive, and hormone receptor-negative and HER2-negative" it is crucial to inhibit specific targets such as EGFR, HER2, ER, NF-kB, and PR. In this study, we evaluated various methods for binary and multiclass classification. Among them, the GA-SVM-SVM:GA-SVM-SVM model was selected with an accuracy of 0.74, an F1-score of 0.73, and an AUC of 0.94 for virtual screening of ligands from the BindingDB database. This model successfully identified 4454, 803, 438, and 378 ligands with over 90% precision in both active/inactive and target prediction for the classes of EGFR+HER2, ER, NF-kB, and PR, respectively, from the BindingDB database. Based on to the selected ligands, we created a dendrogram that categorizes different ligands based on their targets. This dendrogram aims to facilitate the exploration of chemical space for various therapeutic targets. Ligands that surpassed a 90% threshold in the product of activity probability and correct target selection probability were chosen for further investigation using molecular docking. The binding energy range for these ligands against their respective targets was calculated to be between -15 and -5 kcal/mol. Finally, based on general and common rules in medicinal chemistry, we selected 2, 3, 3, and 8 new ligands with high priority for further studies in the EGFR+HER2, ER, NF-kB, and PR classes, respectively.


CRISPR-GPT: An LLM Agent for Automated Design of Gene-Editing Experiments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The introduction of genome engineering technology has transformed biomedical research, making it possible to make precise changes to genetic information. However, creating an efficient gene-editing system requires a deep understanding of CRISPR technology, and the complex experimental systems under investigation. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in various tasks, they often lack specific knowledge and struggle to accurately solve biological design problems. In this work, we introduce CRISPR-GPT, an LLM agent augmented with domain knowledge and external tools to automate and enhance the design process of CRISPR-based gene-editing experiments. CRISPR-GPT leverages the reasoning ability of LLMs to facilitate the process of selecting CRISPR systems, designing guide RNAs, recommending cellular delivery methods, drafting protocols, and designing validation experiments to confirm editing outcomes. We showcase the potential of CRISPR-GPT for assisting non-expert researchers with gene-editing experiments from scratch and validate the agent's effectiveness in a real-world use case. Furthermore, we explore the ethical and regulatory considerations associated with automated gene-editing design, highlighting the need for responsible and transparent use of these tools. Our work aims to bridge the gap between beginner biological researchers and CRISPR genome engineering techniques, and demonstrate the potential of LLM agents in facilitating complex biological discovery tasks.


Explainable Machine Learning System for Predicting Chronic Kidney Disease in High-Risk Cardiovascular Patients

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As the global population ages, the incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is rising. CKD often remains asymptomatic until advanced stages, which significantly burdens both the healthcare system and patient quality of life. This research developed an explainable machine learning system for predicting CKD in patients with cardiovascular risks, utilizing medical history and laboratory data. The Random Forest model achieved the highest sensitivity of 88.2%. The study introduces a comprehensive explainability framework that extends beyond traditional feature importance methods, incorporating global and local interpretations, bias inspection, biomedical relevance, and safety assessments. Key predictive features identified in global interpretation were the use of diabetic and ACEI/ARB medications, and initial eGFR values. Local interpretation provided model insights through counterfactual explanations, which aligned with other system parts. After conducting a bias inspection, it was found that the initial eGFR values and CKD predictions exhibited some bias, but no significant gender bias was identified. The model's logic, extracted by scoped rules, was confirmed to align with existing medical literature. The safety assessment tested potentially dangerous cases and confirmed that the model behaved safely. This system enhances the explainability, reliability, and accountability of the model, promoting its potential integration into healthcare settings and compliance with upcoming regulatory standards, and showing promise for broader applications in healthcare machine learning.


Pareto Optimization to Accelerate Multi-Objective Virtual Screening

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The discovery of therapeutic molecules is fundamentally a multi-objective optimization problem. One formulation of the problem is to identify molecules that simultaneously exhibit strong binding affinity for a target protein, minimal off-target interactions, and suitable pharmacokinetic properties. Inspired by prior work that uses active learning to accelerate the identification of strong binders, we implement multi-objective Bayesian optimization to reduce the computational cost of multi-property virtual screening and apply it to the identification of ligands predicted to be selective based on docking scores to on- and off-targets. We demonstrate the superiority of Pareto optimization over scalarization across three case studies. Further, we use the developed optimization tool to search a virtual library of over 4M molecules for those predicted to be selective dual inhibitors of EGFR and IGF1R, acquiring 100% of the molecules that form the library's Pareto front after exploring only 8% of the library. This workflow and associated open source software can reduce the screening burden of molecular design projects and is complementary to research aiming to improve the accuracy of binding predictions and other molecular properties.


A speech corpus for chronic kidney disease

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we present a speech corpus of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) that will be used for research on pathological voice analysis, automatic illness identification, and severity prediction. This paper introduces the steps involved in creating this corpus, including the choice of speech-related parameters and speech lists as well as the recording technique. The speakers in this corpus, 289 CKD patients with varying degrees of severity who were categorized based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), delivered sustained vowels, sentence, and paragraph stimuli. This study compared and analyzed the voice characteristics of CKD patients with those of the control group; the results revealed differences in voice quality, phoneme-level pronunciation, prosody, glottal source, and aerodynamic parameters.