Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate uncertainty quantification in existing methods. We introduce the Causal Diffusion Model (CDM), the first denoising diffusion probabilistic approach explicitly designed to generate full probabilistic distributions of counterfactual outcomes under sequential interventions. CDM employs a novel residual denoising architecture with relational self-attention, capturing intricate temporal dependencies and multimodal outcome trajectories without requiring explicit adjustments (e.g., inverse-probability weighting or adversarial balancing) for confounding. In rigorous evaluation on a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic tumor-growth simulator widely adopted in prior work, CDM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art longitudinal causal inference methods, achieving a 15-30% relative improvement in distributional accuracy (1-Wasserstein distance) while maintaining competitive or superior point-estimate accuracy (RMSE) under high-confounding regimes. By unifying uncertainty quantification and robust counterfactual prediction in complex, sequentially confounded settings, without tailored deconfounding, CDM offers a flexible, high-impact tool for decision support in medicine, policy evaluation, and other longitudinal domains.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In this paper, we study decision rules induced by deep, fully connected feedforward ReLU BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss. We show that, for fixed prior scales, the induced Bayes decision rule is not minimax. We then propose a hyperprior on the effective output variance of the BNN prior that yields a superharmonic square-root marginal density, establishing that the resulting decision rule is simultaneously admissible and minimax. We further extend these results from the quadratic loss setting to the predictive density estimation problem with Kullback--Leibler loss. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings numerically through simulation.

Dropout has been witnessed with great success in training deep neural networks by independently zeroing out the outputs of neurons at random. It has also received a surge of interest for shallow learning, e.g., logistic regression. However, the independent sampling for dropout could be suboptimal for the sake of convergence. In this paper, we propose to use multinomial sampling for dropout, i.e., sampling features or neurons according to a multinomial distribution with different probabilities for different features/neurons. To exhibit the optimal dropout probabilities, we analyze the shallow learning with multinomial dropout and establish the risk bound for stochastic optimization. By minimizing a sampling dependent factor in the risk bound, we obtain a distribution-dependent dropout with sampling probabilities dependent on the second order statistics of the data distribution. To tackle the issue of evolving distribution of neurons in deep learning, we propose an efficient adaptive dropout (named \textbf{evolutional dropout}) that computes the sampling probabilities on-the-fly from a mini-batch of examples. Empirical studies on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed dropouts achieve not only much faster convergence and but also a smaller testing error than the standard dropout. For example, on the CIFAR-100 data, the evolutional dropout achieves relative improvements over 10\% on the prediction performance and over 50\% on the convergence speed compared to the standard dropout.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) stand at the forefront of many recent developments in deep learning. Yet a major difficulty with these models is their tendency to overfit, with dropout shown to fail when applied to recurrent layers.

Multiplicative noise, including dropout, is widely used to regularize deep neural networks (DNNs), and is shown to be effective in a wide range of architectures and tasks. From an information perspective, we consider injecting multiplicative noise into a DNN as training the network to solve the task with noisy information pathways, which leads to the observation that multiplicative noise tends to increase the correlation between features, so as to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of information pathways. However, high feature correlation is undesirable, as it increases redundancy in representations. In this work, we propose non-correlating multiplicative noise (NCMN), which exploits batch normalization to remove the correlation effect in a simple yet effective way. We show that NCMN significantly improves the performance of standard multiplicative noise on image classification tasks, providing a better alternative to dropout for batch-normalized networks. Additionally, we present a unified view of NCMN and shake-shake regularization, which explains the performance gain of the latter.

Deep neural networks often work well when they are over-parameterized and trained with a massive amount of noise and regularization, such as weight decay and dropout. Although dropout is widely used as a regularization technique for fully connected layers, it is often less effective for convolutional layers. This lack of success of dropout for convolutional layers is perhaps due to the fact that activation units in convolutional layers are spatially correlated so information can still flow through convolutional networks despite dropout. Thus a structured form of dropout is needed to regularize convolutional networks. In this paper, we introduce DropBlock, a form of structured dropout, where units in a contiguous region of a feature map are dropped together. We found that applying DropbBlock in skip connections in addition to the convolution layers increases the accuracy. Also, gradually increasing number of dropped units during training leads to better accuracy and more robust to hyperparameter choices. Extensive experiments show that DropBlock works better than dropout in regularizing convolutional networks. On ImageNet classification, ResNet-50 architecture with DropBlock achieves $78.13\%$ accuracy, which is more than $1.6\%$ improvement on the baseline.

Stochastic regularisation is an important weapon in the arsenal of a deep learning practitioner. However, despite recent theoretical advances, our understanding of how noise influences signal propagation in deep neural networks remains limited. By extending recent work based on mean field theory, we develop a new framework for signal propagation in stochastic regularised neural networks. Our \textit{noisy signal propagation} theory can incorporate several common noise distributions, including additive and multiplicative Gaussian noise as well as dropout. We use this framework to investigate initialisation strategies for noisy ReLU networks. We show that no critical initialisation strategy exists using additive noise, with signal propagation exploding regardless of the selected noise distribution. For multiplicative noise (e.g.\ dropout), we identify alternative critical initialisation strategies that depend on the second moment of the noise distribution. Simulations and experiments on real-world data confirm that our proposed initialisation is able to stably propagate signals in deep networks, while using an initialisation disregarding noise fails to do so.