Knowledge tracing (KT) models are a crucial basis for pedagogical decision-making, namely which task to select next for a learner and when to stop teaching a particular skill. Given the high stakes of pedagogical decisions, KT models are typically required to be interpretable, in the sense that they should implement an explicit model of human learning and provide explicit estimates of learners' abilities. However, to our knowledge, no study to date has investigated whether the interpretability of KT models actually helps human teachers to make teaching decisions. We address this gap. First, we perform a simulation study to show that, indeed, decisions based on interpretable KT models achieve mastery faster compared to decisions based on a non-interpretable model. Second, we repeat the study but ask $N=12$ human teachers to make the teaching decisions based on the information provided by KT models. As expected, teachers rate interpretable KT models higher in terms of usability and trustworthiness. However, the number of tasks needed until mastery hardly differs between KT models. This suggests that the relationship between model interpretability and teacher decisions is not straightforward: teachers do not solely rely on KT models to make decisions and further research is needed to investigate how learners and teachers actually understand and use KT models.

Personalized recommendation is a key feature of intelligent tutoring systems, typically relying on accurate models of student knowledge. Knowledge Tracing (KT) models enable this by estimating a student's mastery based on their historical interactions. Many KT models rely on human-annotated knowledge concepts (KCs), which tag each exercise with one or more skills or concepts believed to be necessary for solving it. However, these KCs can be incomplete, error-prone, or overly general. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model that learns sparse binary representations of exercises, where each bit indicates the presence or absence of a latent concept. We refer to these representations as auxiliary KCs. These representations capture conceptual structure beyond human-defined annotations and are compatible with both classical models (e.g., BKT) and modern deep learning KT architectures. We demonstrate that incorporating auxiliary KCs improves both student modeling and adaptive exercise recommendation. For student modeling, we show that augmenting classical models like BKT with auxiliary KCs leads to improved predictive performance. For recommendation, we show that using auxiliary KCs enhances both reinforcement learning-based policies and a simple planning-based method (expectimax), resulting in measurable gains in student learning outcomes within a simulated student environment.

In contrast to pedagogies like evidence-based teaching, personalized adaptive learning (PAL) distinguishes itself by closely monitoring the progress of individual students and tailoring the learning path to their unique knowledge and requirements. A crucial technique for effective PAL implementation is knowledge tracing, which models students' evolving knowledge to predict their future performance. Based on these predictions, personalized recommendations for resources and learning paths can be made to meet individual needs. Recent advancements in deep learning have successfully enhanced knowledge tracking through Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT). This paper introduces generative AI models to further enhance DKT. Generative AI models, rooted in deep learning, are trained to generate synthetic data, addressing data scarcity challenges in various applications across fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). This study aims to tackle data shortage issues in student learning records to enhance DKT performance for PAL. Specifically, it employs TabDDPM, a diffusion model, to generate synthetic educational records to augment training data for enhancing DKT. The proposed method's effectiveness is validated through extensive experiments on ASSISTments datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the AI-generated data by TabDDPM significantly improves DKT performance, particularly in scenarios with small data for training and large data for testing.

Knowledge tracing consists in predicting the performance of some students on new questions given their performance on previous questions, and can be a prior step to optimizing assessment and learning. Deep knowledge tracing (DKT) is a competitive model for knowledge tracing relying on recurrent neural networks, even if some simpler models may match its performance. However, little is known about why DKT works so well. In this paper, we frame deep knowledge tracing as a encoderdecoder architecture. This viewpoint not only allows us to propose better models in terms of performance, simplicity or expressivity but also opens up promising avenues for future research directions. In particular, we show on several small and large datasets that a simpler decoder, with possibly fewer parameters than the one used by DKT, can predict student performance better.

We propose Adaptive Deep Kernel Fitting with Implicit Function Theorem (ADKF-IFT), a novel framework for learning deep kernel Gaussian processes (GPs) by interpolating between meta-learning and conventional deep kernel learning. Our approach employs a bilevel optimization objective where we meta-learn generally useful feature representations across tasks, in the sense that task-specific GP models estimated on top of such features achieve the lowest possible predictive loss on average. We solve the resulting nested optimization problem using the implicit function theorem (IFT). We show that our ADKF-IFT framework contains previously proposed Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) and Deep Kernel Transfer (DKT) as special cases. Although ADKF-IFT is a completely general method, we argue that it is especially well-suited for drug discovery problems and demonstrate that it significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods on a variety of real-world few-shot molecular property prediction tasks and out-of-domain molecular property prediction and optimization tasks. Many real-world applications require machine learning algorithms to make robust predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty given very limited training data. One important example is drug discovery, where practitioners not only want models to accurately predict biochemical/physicochemical properties of molecules, but also want to use models to guide the search for novel molecules with desirable properties, leveraging techniques such as Bayesian optimization (BO) which heavily rely on accurate uncertainty estimates (Frazier, 2018). Despite the meteoric rise of neural networks over the past decade, their notoriously overconfident and unreliable uncertainty estimates (Szegedy et al., 2013) make them generally ineffective surrogate models for BO. Instead, most contemporary BO implementations use Gaussian processes (GPs) (Rasmussen & Williams, 2006) as surrogate models due to their analytically-tractable and generally reliable uncertainty estimates, even on small datasets. Traditionally, GPs are fit on hand-engineered features (e.g., molecular fingerprints), which can limit their predictive performance on complex, structured, high-dimensional data where designing informative features is challenging (e.g., molecules). Naturally, a number of works have proposed to improve performance by instead fitting GPs on features learned by a deep neural network: a family of models generally called Deep Kernel GPs.

Knowledge tracing (KT) refers to the problem of predicting future learner performance given their past performance in educational applications. Recent developments in KT using flexible deep neural network-based models excel at this task. However, these models often offer limited interpretability, thus making them insufficient for personalized learning, which requires using interpretable feedback and actionable recommendations to help learners achieve better learning outcomes. In this paper, we propose attentive knowledge tracing (AKT), which couples flexible attention-based neural network models with a series of novel, interpretable model components inspired by cognitive and psychometric models. AKT uses a novel monotonic attention mechanism that relates a learner's future responses to assessment questions to their past responses; attention weights are computed using exponential decay and a context-aware relative distance measure, in addition to the similarity between questions. Moreover, we use the Rasch model to regularize the concept and question embeddings; these embeddings are able to capture individual differences among questions on the same concept without using an excessive number of parameters. We conduct experiments on several real-world benchmark datasets and show that AKT outperforms existing KT methods (by up to $6\%$ in AUC in some cases) on predicting future learner responses. We also conduct several case studies and show that AKT exhibits excellent interpretability and thus has potential for automated feedback and personalization in real-world educational settings.

With the rapid development of online education system, knowledge tracing which aims at predicting students' knowledge state is becoming a critical and fundamental task in personalized education. Traditionally, existing methods are domain-specified. However, there are a larger number of domains (e.g., subjects, schools) in the real world and the lacking of data in some domains, how to utilize the knowledge and information in other domains to help train a knowledge tracing model for target domains is increasingly important. We refer to this problem as domain adaptation for knowledge tracing (DAKT) which contains two aspects: (1) how to achieve great knowledge tracing performance in each domain. (2) how to transfer good performed knowledge tracing model between domains. To this end, in this paper, we propose a novel adaptable framework, namely adaptable knowledge tracing (AKT) to address the DAKT problem. Specifically, for the first aspect, we incorporate the educational characteristics (e.g., slip, guess, question texts) based on the deep knowledge tracing (DKT) to obtain a good performed knowledge tracing model. For the second aspect, we propose and adopt three domain adaptation processes. First, we pre-train an auto-encoder to select useful source instances for target model training. Second, we minimize the domain-specific knowledge state distribution discrepancy under maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) measurement to achieve domain adaptation. Third, we adopt fine-tuning to deal with the problem that the output dimension of source and target domain are different to make the model suitable for target domains. Extensive experimental results on two private datasets and seven public datasets clearly prove the effectiveness of AKT for great knowledge tracing performance and its superior transferable ability.

Recent student knowledge modeling algorithms such as DKT and DKVMN have been shown to produce accurate predictions of problem correctness within the same learning system . However, these algorithms do not generate estimates of student knowledge. In this paper we present an extension that infers knowledge estimates from correctness predictions. We apply this extension to DKT and DKVMN, result ing in knowledge estimates that correlate better with a posttest than knowledge estimates produced by PFA or BKT. We also apply our extension to correctness predictions from PFA and BKT, finding that knowledge predictions produced with it correlate better with the posttest than BKT and PFA's own knowledge predictions. These findings are significant since the primary aim of education is to prepare students for later experiences outside of the immediate learning activity.

We introduce Disease Knowledge Transfer (DKT), a novel technique for transferring biomarker information between related neurodegenerative diseases. DKT infers robust multimodal biomarker trajectories in rare neurodegenerative diseases even when only limited, unimodal data is available, by transferring information from larger multimodal datasets from common neurodegenerative diseases. DKT is a joint-disease generative model of biomarker progressions, which exploits biomarker relationships that are shared across diseases. As opposed to current deep learning approaches, DKT is interpretable, which allows us to understand underlying disease mechanisms. Here we demonstrate DKT on Alzheimer's disease (AD) variants and its ability to predict trajectories for multimodal biomarkers in Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA), in lack of such data from PCA subjects. For this we train DKT on a combined dataset containing subjects with two distinct diseases and sizes of data available: 1) a larger, multimodal typical AD (tAD) dataset from the TADPOLE Challenge, and 2) a smaller unimodal Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA) dataset from the Dementia Research Centre (DRC) UK, for which only a limited number of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans are available. We first show that DKT estimates plausible multimodal trajectories in PCA that agree with previous literature. We further validate DKT in two situations: (1) on synthetic data, showing that it can accurately estimate the ground truth parameters and (2) on 20 DTI scans from controls and PCA patients, showing that it has favourable predictive performance compared to standard approaches. While we demonstrated DKT on Alzheimer's variants, we note DKT is generalisable to other forms of related neurodegenerative diseases. Source code for DKT is available online: https://github.com/mrazvan22/dkt.

Knowledge tracing is one of the key research areas for empowering personalized education. It is a task to model students' mastery level of a knowledge component (KC) based on their historical learning trajectories. In recent years, a recurrent neural network model called deep knowledge tracing (DKT) has been proposed to handle the knowledge tracing task and literature has shown that DKT generally outperforms traditional methods. However, through our extensive experimentation, we have noticed two major problems in the DKT model. The first problem is that the model fails to reconstruct the observed input. As a result, even when a student performs well on a KC, the prediction of that KC's mastery level decreases instead, and vice versa. Second, the predicted performance for KCs across time-steps is not consistent. This is undesirable and unreasonable because student's performance is expected to transit gradually over time. To address these problems, we introduce regularization terms that correspond to reconstruction and waviness to the loss function of the original DKT model to enhance the consistency in prediction. Experiments show that the regularized loss function effectively alleviates the two problems without degrading the original task of DKT.