Background Childhood Anemia affects an estimated 40% of children aged 6-59 months globally and arises from heterogeneous nutritional, infectious, and socioeconomic factors that vary substantially across settings. This variability challenges the generalizability of predictive machine learning models, which often degrade under cross-population or temporal shifts. We investigated the utility a modern transformer-based tabular foundation model (TabPFN) as a complementatry framework with respect to supervised classical machine learning methods across diverse country contexts, with particular attention to data-scarce settings where surveillance capacity is most limited. Methods We conducted a multi-country prediction study using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) children's recode data from 16 countries spanning Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caucasus, and the Middle East. The harmonized analytic cohort comprised of (n = 68,856)children aged 6-59 months with valid hemoglobin measurements. Anemia was defined using WHO age and altitude-adjusted thresholds and treated as a binary outcome. We trained Logistic Regression, XGBoost, and LightGBM models using standard supervised learning, and evaluated TabPFN v2.6 in an in-context learning setting. Performance was assessed using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) and other standard classification metrics, with calibration evaluated via Brier score and expected calibration error (ECE). Uncertainty in performance estimates was quantified using bootstrap resampling to derive 95% confidence intervals. Robustness was assessed in a few-shot learning setting. Cross-population generalization was examined using leave-one-country-out (LOCO) validation and reverse-LOCO experiments to assess directional transferability. Subgroup analyses were conducted across five demographic strata: child age group, sex, maternal education, residence type, and household wealth quintile. Feature importance was assessed using standard linear and tree-based explainer SHAP values for the three supervised models and an adapted version of SHAP for TabPFN, aggregated across countries and examined at the country level. TabPFN also yielded the best probabilistic calibration across all 16 countries, achieving the lowest mean Brier score (0.203) and Expected Calibration Error (ECE = 0.042) of all models evaluated; LightGBM and Logistic Regression exhibited the greatest miscalibration, particularly at higher predicted probabilities. Under full-data conditions, within-country discrimination was moderate across all models (AUC-ROC 0.59-0.76) Under LOCO validation, performance declined modestly (AUC-ROC 0.58-0.69) Reverse-LOCO analyses revealed asymmetric and directional transferability, with epidemiologically diverse populations serving as more informative training sources and certain target populations remaining persistently difficult to predict regardless of model or training data.

Jurisprudence It Was One of DOGE's Most Absurd Abuses. One year ago, the Trump administration canceled more than 1,400 grants from the National Endowment for the Humanities. More than $100 million in congressionally appropriated funds awarded to scholars, writers, archivists, and researchers across the country was snatched up in three days. There was no due process. Just a chatbot and two guys from DOGE who had no legal authority to be there in the first place.

The Brier score conflates two distinct properties of probabilistic predictions: reliability (calibration error) and resolution (discriminatory power). We introduce the Manokhin Probability Matrix, a BCG-style two-dimensional diagnostic framework that separates them. Classifiers are placed on a 2x2 grid by Spiegelhalter Z-statistic and AUC-ROC expected rank, then assigned to one of four archetypes: Eagle (good on both axes), Bull (strong discrimination, poor calibration), Sloth (well-calibrated, weak discriminator), and Mole (poor on both). Each archetype carries a distinct prescription. We populate the matrix from a large-scale empirical study spanning 21 classifiers, 5 post-hoc calibrators, and 30 real-world binary classification tasks from the TabArena-v0.1 suite. The assignment is unambiguous. CatBoost, TabICL, EBM, TabPFN, GBC, and Random Forest are Eagles. XGBoost, LightGBM, and HGB are Bulls; Venn-Abers calibration cuts log-loss by 6.5 to 12.6% on Bulls but degrades Eagles by 2.1%. SVM, LR, LDA, and the empirical base-rate predictor are Sloths. MLP, KNN, Naive Bayes, and ExtraTrees are Moles. A theoretical asymmetry follows: no order-preserving post-hoc calibrator can add discriminatory power (Proposition 1), so calibration is the fixable part and discrimination is the hard part. The practical rule is direct: do not optimise aggregate Brier score without first decomposing it; optimise discrimination first, then fix calibration post-hoc. Code and raw experimental data are available at https://github.com/valeman/classifier_calibration.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have significantly advanced image synthesis, however, the synthesis quality drops significantly given a limited amount of training data. To improve the data efficiency of GAN training, prior work typically employs data augmentation to mitigate the overfitting of the discriminator yet still learn the discriminator with a bi-classification (i.e., real vs.

Crucial for building trust in deep learning models for critical real-world applications is efficient and theoretically sound uncertainty quantification, a task that continues to be challenging. Useful uncertainty information is expected to have two key properties: It should be valid (guaranteeing coverage) and discriminative (more uncertain when the expected risk is high). Moreover, when combined with deep learning (DL) methods, it should be scalable and affect the DL model performance minimally. Most existing Bayesian methods lack frequentist coverage guarantees and usually affect model performance. The few available frequentist methods are rarely discriminative and/or violate coverage guarantees due to unrealistic assumptions. Moreover, many methods are expensive or require substantial modifications to the base neural network. Building upon recent advances in conformal prediction [13, 33] and leveraging the classical idea of kernel regression, we propose Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals (LVD), a simple, efficient and lightweight method to construct discriminative prediction intervals (PIs) for almost any DL model. With no assumptions on the data distribution, such PIs also offer finite-sample local coverage guarantees (contrasted to the simpler marginal coverage). We empirically verify, using diverse datasets, that besides being the only locally valid method for DL, LVD also exceeds or matches the performance (including coverage rate and prediction accuracy) of existing uncertainty quantification methods, while offering additional benefits in scalability and flexibility.

We explore the minimax optimal error associated with a demographic parityconstrained regression problem within the context of a linear model. Our proposed model encompasses a broader range of discriminatory bias sources compared to the model presented by Chzhen and Schreuder [6]. Our analysis reveals that the minimax optimal error for the demographic parity-constrained regression problem under our model is characterized by Θ(dM/n), where ndenotes the sample size, d represents the dimensionality, and M signifies the number of demographic groups arising from sensitive attributes. Moreover, we demonstrate that the minimax error increases in conjunction with a larger bias present in the model.

We explore the minimax optimal error associated with a demographic parityconstrained regression problem within the context of a linear model. Our proposed model encompasses a broader range of discriminatory bias sources compared to the model presented by Chzhen and Schreuder [6]. Our analysis reveals that the minimax optimal error for the demographic parity-constrained regression problem under our model is characterized by Θ(dM/n), where ndenotes the sample size, d represents the dimensionality, and M signifies the number of demographic groups arising from sensitive attributes. Moreover, we demonstrate that the minimax error increases in conjunction with a larger bias present in the model.

Few-shot object detection (FSOD) aims to detect new objects based on few annotated samples. To alleviate the impact of few samples, enhancing the generalization and discrimination abilities of detectors on new objects plays an important role. In this paper, we explore employing Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to boost both the generalization and discrimination abilities. In specific, we propose a novel method, namely, SVD-Dictionary enhancement, to build two separated spaces based on the sorted singular values. Concretely, the eigenvectors corresponding to larger singular values are used to build the generalization space in which localization is performed, as these eigenvectors generally suppress certain variations (e.g., the variation of styles) and contain intrinsical characteristics of objects. Meanwhile, since the eigenvectors corresponding to relatively smaller singular values may contain richer category-related information, we can utilize them to build the discrimination space in which classification is performed.