As patients and employers look for alternatives to pricey GLP-1 drugs, Silicon Valley startup Twin Health is using AI and wearable sensors to help people make healthier choices. Rodney Buckley has lost 100 pounds in less than a year, not by using a GLP-1 drug but with the help of a digital twin. Last March, the 55-year-old retired firefighter turned village mayor of Third Lake, Illinois, was 376 pounds. He had tried different diets over the years and would typically lose some weight but eventually gain it back. When his wife's employer started offering a program from startup Twin Health, he thought he would give it a try.

All UK children could be offered screening for type 1 diabetes using a simple finger-prick blood test, say researchers who have been running a large study. Currently, many young people go undiagnosed and risk developing a life-threatening complication called diabetic ketoacidosis that needs urgent hospital treatment. Identifying diabetes earlier could help avoid this and mean treatments to control problematic blood sugar levels can be given sooner. Some 17,000 children aged three to 13 have already been checked as part of the ELSA (Early Surveillance for Autoimmune diabetes) study, funded by diabetes charities. Imogen, who is 12 and from the West Midlands, is one of those found to have diabetes thanks to the screening.

Diabetes is a serious worldwide health issue, and successful intervention depends on early detection. However, overlapping risk factors and data asymmetry make prediction difficult. To use extensive health survey data to create a machine learning framework for diabetes classification that is both accurate and comprehensible, to produce results that will aid in clinical decision-making. Using the BRFSS dataset, we assessed a number of supervised learning techniques. SMOTE and Tomek Links were used to correct class imbalance. To improve prediction performance, both individual models and ensemble techniques such as stacking were investigated. The 2015 BRFSS dataset, which includes roughly 253,680 records with 22 numerical features, is used in this study. Strong ROC-AUC performance of approximately 0.96 was attained by the individual models Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM.The stacking ensemble with XGBoost and KNN yielded the best overall results with 94.82\% accuracy, ROC-AUC of 0.989, and PR-AUC of 0.991, indicating a favourable balance between recall and precision. In our study, we proposed and developed a React Native-based application with a Python Flask backend to support early diabetes prediction, providing users with an accessible and efficient health monitoring tool.

The global rise in type 2 diabetes underscores the need for scalable and cost-effective screening methods. Current diagnosis requires biochemical assays, which are invasive and costly. Advances in consumer wearables have enabled early explorations of machine learning-based disease detection, but prior studies were limited to controlled settings. We present SweetDeep, a compact neural network trained on physiological and demographic data from 285 (diabetic and non-diabetic) participants in the EU and MENA regions, collected using Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 devices in free-living conditions over six days. Each participant contributed multiple 2-minute sensor recordings per day, totaling approximately 20 recordings per individual. Despite comprising fewer than 3,000 parameters, SweetDeep achieves 82.5% patient-level accuracy (82.1% macro-F1, 79.7% sensitivity, 84.6% specificity) under three-fold cross-validation, with an expected calibration error of 5.5%. Allowing the model to abstain on less than 10% of low-confidence patient predictions yields an accuracy of 84.5% on the remaining patients. These findings demonstrate that combining engineered features with lightweight architectures can support accurate, rapid, and generalizable detection of type 2 diabetes in real-world wearable settings.

Abstract--Tree-based ensemble methods consistently outperform single models on tabular classification tasks, yet the conditions under which ensembles provide clear advantages--and prevent overfitting despite using high-variance base learners--are not always well understood by practitioners. We study four real-world classification problems (Breast Cancer diagnosis, Heart Disease prediction, Pima Indians Diabetes, and Credit Card Fraud detection) comparing classical single models against nine ensemble methods using five-seed repeated stratified cross-validation with statistical significance testing. Our results reveal three distinct regimes: (i) On nearly linearly separable data (Breast Cancer), well-regularized linear models achieve 97% accuracy with <2% generalization gaps; ensembles match but do not substantially exceed this performance. We systematically quantify dataset complexity through linearity scores, feature correlation, class separability, and noise estimates, explaining why different data regimes favor different model families. Cross-validated train/test accuracy and generalization-gap plots provide simple visual diagnostics for practitioners to assess when ensemble complexity is warranted. Statistical testing confirms that ensemble gains are significant on nonlinear tasks (p < 0.01) but not on near-linear data (p > 0.15). The study provides actionable guidelines for ensemble model selection in high-stakes tabular applications, with full code and reproducible experiments publicly available. A model that almost perfectly fits its training data can still fail badly on new cases. This gap between training performance and real-world behaviour is the essence of overfitting, and it is particularly problematic in domains such as medical diagnosis and financial fraud detection, where mistakes are costly: missed tumours delay treatment, and undetected fraud translates directly into monetary loss.

-- Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) affects millions worldwide, requiring continuous monitoring to prevent severe hypo-and hyperglycemic events. While continuous glucose monitoring has improved blood glucose management, deploying predictive models on wearable devices remains challenging due to computational and memory constraints. T o address this, we propose a novel Lightweight Sequential Transformer model designed for blood glucose prediction in T1D. The model is optimized for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices and incorporates a balanced loss function to handle the inherent data imbalance in hypo-and hyperglycemic events. Experiments on two benchmark datasets, OhioT1DM and DiaTrend, demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting glucose levels and detecting adverse events. This work fills the gap between high-performance modeling and practical deployment, providing a reliable and efficient T1D management solution. Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) [1] is a chronic autoimmune condition requiring lifelong blood glucose concentration (BGC) monitoring to prevent life-threatening complications such as hypoglycemia (BGC below 70 mg/dL [2]) and hyperglycemia (BGC above 180 mg/dL [3]).

Deep sequence models for blood glucose forecasting consistently fail to leverage clinically informative drivers--insulin, meals, and activity--despite well-understood physiological mechanisms. We term this Driver-Blindness and formalize it via $Δ_{\text{drivers}}$, the performance gain of multivariate models over matched univariate baselines. Across the literature, $Δ_{\text{drivers}}$ is typically near zero. We attribute this to three interacting factors: architectural biases favoring autocorrelation (C1), data fidelity gaps that render drivers noisy and confounded (C2), and physiological heterogeneity that undermines population-level models (C3). We synthesize strategies that partially mitigate Driver-Blindness--including physiological feature encoders, causal regularization, and personalization--and recommend that future work routinely report $Δ_{\text{drivers}}$ to prevent driver-blind models from being considered state-of-the-art.

There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED (Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMED on real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.

To us, in the hands of an expert analyst with careful prior elicitation, the Bayesian conditional argument is the more persuasive for posterior and predictive uncertainty. However, to make such strong statements, the Bayesian must usually make the strict assumption of the model being well-specified. At the end of the day, the Bayes and frequentist answer different questions, and the common confusion arises when treating them as answering the same. As long as we are aware they are addressing different needs, we believe both solutions are informative and useful, and indeed that is our recommendation in this paper. In practice, it may be helpful to compute both the Bayesian and CB intervals and compare.