dentification
Optimal Multi-Objective Best Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence
Chen, Zhirui, Karthik, P. N., Chee, Yeow Meng, Tan, Vincent Y. F.
We consider a multi-armed bandit setting with finitely many arms, in which each arm yields an $M$-dimensional vector reward upon selection. We assume that the reward of each dimension (a.k.a. {\em objective}) is generated independently of the others. The best arm of any given objective is the arm with the largest component of mean corresponding to the objective. The end goal is to identify the best arm of {\em every} objective in the shortest (expected) time subject to an upper bound on the probability of error (i.e., fixed-confidence regime). We establish a problem-dependent lower bound on the limiting growth rate of the expected stopping time, in the limit of vanishing error probabilities. This lower bound, we show, is characterised by a max-min optimisation problem that is computationally expensive to solve at each time step. We propose an algorithm that uses the novel idea of {\em surrogate proportions} to sample the arms at each time step, eliminating the need to solve the max-min optimisation problem at each step. We demonstrate theoretically that our algorithm is asymptotically optimal. In addition, we provide extensive empirical studies to substantiate the efficiency of our algorithm. While existing works on pure exploration with multi-objective multi-armed bandits predominantly focus on {\em Pareto frontier identification}, our work fills the gap in the literature by conducting a formal investigation of the multi-objective best arm identification problem.
Federated Best Arm Identification with Heterogeneous Clients
Chen, Zhirui, Karthik, P. N., Tan, Vincent Y. F., Chee, Yeow Meng
We study best arm identification in a federated multi-armed bandit setting with a central server and multiple clients, when each client has access to a {\em subset} of arms and each arm yields independent Gaussian observations. The goal is to identify the best arm of each client subject to an upper bound on the error probability; here, the best arm is one that has the largest {\em average} value of the means averaged across all clients having access to the arm. Our interest is in the asymptotics as the error probability vanishes. We provide an asymptotic lower bound on the growth rate of the expected stopping time of any algorithm. Furthermore, we show that for any algorithm whose upper bound on the expected stopping time matches with the lower bound up to a multiplicative constant ({\em almost-optimal} algorithm), the ratio of any two consecutive communication time instants must be {\em bounded}, a result that is of independent interest. We thereby infer that an algorithm can communicate no more sparsely than at exponential time instants in order to be almost-optimal. For the class of almost-optimal algorithms, we present the first-of-its-kind asymptotic lower bound on the expected number of {\em communication rounds} until stoppage. We propose a novel algorithm that communicates at exponential time instants, and demonstrate that it is asymptotically almost-optimal.
Optimal Best Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence in Restless Bandits
Karthik, P. N., Tan, Vincent Y. F., Mukherjee, Arpan, Tajer, Ali
We study best arm identification in a restless multi-armed bandit setting with finitely many arms. The discrete-time data generated by each arm forms a homogeneous Markov chain taking values in a common, finite state space. The state transitions in each arm are captured by an ergodic transition probability matrix (TPM) that is a member of a single-parameter exponential family of TPMs. The real-valued parameters of the arm TPMs are unknown and belong to a given space. Given a function $f$ defined on the common state space of the arms, the goal is to identify the best arm -- the arm with the largest average value of $f$ evaluated under the arm's stationary distribution -- with the fewest number of samples, subject to an upper bound on the decision's error probability (i.e., the fixed-confidence regime). A lower bound on the growth rate of the expected stopping time is established in the asymptote of a vanishing error probability. Furthermore, a policy for best arm identification is proposed, and its expected stopping time is proved to have an asymptotic growth rate that matches the lower bound. It is demonstrated that tracking the long-term behavior of a certain Markov decision process and its state-action visitation proportions are the key ingredients in analyzing the converse and achievability bounds. It is shown that under every policy, the state-action visitation proportions satisfy a specific approximate flow conservation constraint and that these proportions match the optimal proportions dictated by the lower bound under any asymptotically optimal policy. The prior studies on best arm identification in restless bandits focus on independent observations from the arms, rested Markov arms, and restless Markov arms with known arm TPMs. In contrast, this work is the first to study best arm identification in restless bandits with unknown arm TPMs.
On Best-Arm Identification with a Fixed Budget in Non-Parametric Multi-Armed Bandits
Barrier, Antoine, Garivier, Aurélien, Stoltz, Gilles
We lay the foundations of a non-parametric theory of best-arm identification in multi-armed bandits with a fixed budget T. We consider general, possibly non-parametric, models D for distributions over the arms; an overarching example is the model D = P(0,1) of all probability distributions over [0,1]. We propose upper bounds on the average log-probability of misidentifying the optimal arm based on information-theoretic quantities that correspond to infima over Kullback-Leibler divergences between some distributions in D and a given distribution. This is made possible by a refined analysis of the successive-rejects strategy of Audibert, Bubeck, and Munos (2010). We finally provide lower bounds on the same average log-probability, also in terms of the same new information-theoretic quantities; these lower bounds are larger when the (natural) assumptions on the considered strategies are stronger. All these new upper and lower bounds generalize existing bounds based, e.g., on gaps between distributions.
Dealing with Unknown Variances in Best-Arm Identification
Jourdan, Marc, Degenne, Rémy, Kaufmann, Emilie
The problem of identifying the best arm among a collection of items having Gaussian rewards distribution is well understood when the variances are known. Despite its practical relevance for many applications, few works studied it for unknown variances. In this paper we introduce and analyze two approaches to deal with unknown variances, either by plugging in the empirical variance or by adapting the transportation costs. In order to calibrate our two stopping rules, we derive new time-uniform concentration inequalities, which are of independent interest. Then, we illustrate the theoretical and empirical performances of our two sampling rule wrappers on Track-and-Stop and on a Top Two algorithm. Moreover, by quantifying the impact on the sample complexity of not knowing the variances, we reveal that it is rather small.
Streaming Linear System Identification with Reverse Experience Replay
Jain, Prateek, Kowshik, Suhas S, Nagaraj, Dheeraj, Netrapalli, Praneeth
We consider the problem of estimating a stochastic linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical system from a single trajectory via streaming algorithms. The problem is equivalent to estimating the parameters of vector auto-regressive (VAR) models encountered in time series analysis (Hamilton (2020)). A recent sequence of papers (Faradonbeh et al., 2018; Simchowitz et al., 2018; Sarkar and Rakhlin, 2019) show that ordinary least squares (OLS) regression can be used to provide optimal finite time estimator for the problem. However, such techniques apply for offline setting where the optimal solution of OLS is available apriori. But, in many problems of interest as encountered in reinforcement learning (RL), it is important to estimate the parameters on the go using gradient oracle. This task is challenging since standard methods like SGD might not perform well when using stochastic gradients from correlated data points (Gy\"orfi and Walk, 1996; Nagaraj et al., 2020). In this work, we propose a novel algorithm, SGD with Reverse Experience Replay (SGD-RER), that is inspired by the experience replay (ER) technique popular in the RL literature (Lin, 1992). SGD-RER divides data into small buffers and runs SGD backwards on the data stored in the individual buffers. We show that this algorithm exactly deconstructs the dependency structure and obtains information theoretically optimal guarantees for both parameter error and prediction error for standard problem settings. Thus, we provide the first - to the best of our knowledge - optimal SGD-style algorithm for the classical problem of linear system identification aka VAR model estimation. Our work demonstrates that knowledge of dependency structure can aid us in designing algorithms which can deconstruct the dependencies between samples optimally in an online fashion.