density estimate
Variance-Reduced Manifold Sampling via Polynomial-Maximization Density Estimation
Uniform sampling on implicitly defined manifolds is a core primitive in motion planning, constrained simulation, and probabilistic machine learning. MASEM addresses this problem by entropy-maximizing resampling, but its resampling weights depend on a local k-nearest-neighbour density estimate whose errors can be amplified by aggressive resampling temperatures. We ask whether a polynomial-maximization moment estimator can replace the plug-in density rule without changing the surrounding MASEM architecture. The proposed PMM-MASEM module computes shell spacings from nested k-nearest-neighbour radii, estimates their standardized cumulants, and uses a gated PMM2/PMM3 estimator only when the spacing distribution departs from the flat Exp(1) regime; otherwise it falls back to the plug-in/MLE rule. This fallback is essential: on a flat homogeneous manifold the plug-in estimator is already the MLE, so PMM should not outperform it. A local Known-DGP Monte Carlo experiment confirms this gate: the selector returns MLE on flat Exp(1) spacings and reduces density MSE by 22--36% on asymmetric gamma and boundary-spacing regimes. The evidence is not uniformly positive: PMM3 worsens a platykurtic uniform spacing law, and a lightweight resampling-proxy experiment improves seven-lobes coverage but degrades the sine and swiss-roll proxies. The current evidence therefore supports an applicability-boundary result rather than a general MASEM improvement claim.
Finite-Sample Analysis of Fixed-k Nearest Neighbor Density Functional Estimators
Shashank Singh, Barnabas Poczos
We provide finite-sample analysis of a general framework for using k-nearest neighbor statistics to estimate functionals of a nonparametric continuous probability density, including entropies and divergences. Rather than plugging a consistent density estimate (which requires k as the sample size n) into the functional of interest, the estimators we consider fix k and perform a bias correction. This is more efficient computationally, and, as we show in certain cases, statistically, leading to faster convergence rates. Our framework unifies several previous estimators, for most of which ours are the first finite sample guarantees.
Density Estimation via Discrepancy Based Adaptive Sequential Partition
Dangna Li, Kun Yang, Wing Hung Wong
Given iidobservations from an unknown absolute continuous distribution defined on some domain Ω, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function. Our density estimate is a piecewise constant function defined on a binary partition of Ω. The key ingredient of the algorithm is to use discrepancy, a concept originates from Quasi Monte Carlo analysis, to control the partition process. The resulting algorithm is simple, efficient, and has a provable convergence rate. We empirically demonstrate its efficiency as a density estimation method. We also show how it can be utilized to find good initializations for k-means.
Unsupervised Learning of Density Estimates with Topological Optimization
Tanweer, Sunia, Khasawneh, Firas A.
Kernel density estimation is a key component of a wide variety of algorithms in machine learning, Bayesian inference, stochastic dynamics and signal processing. However, the unsupervised density estimation technique requires tuning a crucial hyperparameter: the kernel bandwidth. The choice of bandwidth is critical as it controls the bias-variance trade-off by over- or under-smoothing the topological features. Topological data analysis provides methods to mathematically quantify topological characteristics, such as connected components, loops, voids et cetera, even in high dimensions where visualization of density estimates is impossible. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised learning approach using a topology-based loss function for the automated and unsupervised selection of the optimal bandwidth and benchmark it against classical techniques -- demonstrating its potential across different dimensions.
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Do the main claims made in the abstract and introduction accurately reflect the paper's Did you discuss any potential negative societal impacts of your work? If you ran experiments... (a) Did you include the code, data, and instructions needed to reproduce the main experimental results (either in the supplemental material or as a URL)? [Y es] Code can be Did you specify all the training details (e.g., data splits, hyperparameters, how they Did you report error bars (e.g., with respect to the random seed after running experiments multiple times)? Did you include the total amount of compute and the type of resources used (e.g., type Did you include any new assets either in the supplemental material or as a URL? [No] Did you discuss whether and how consent was obtained from people whose data you're If you used crowdsourcing or conducted research with human subjects... (a) Code was written in PyTorch (Paszke et al., 2019), and hyperparameters for regular (non SMC) methods were selected through grid search over a validation fold of the training data where appropriate. In Thomson et al. (2009), there was no BMI information, so we The simulations used for evaluating the methods were provided to us by Uster et al. (2021), who However, the simulation setup they use is not based on the underlying assumption that we make. These methods rely on some level of experience in the environment (mostly from expert demonstrations), and the challenge is clearly harder if given just suggestions from an expert policy.
Density, asymmetry and citation dynamics in scientific literature
Imel, Nathaniel, Hafen, Zachary
Scientific behavior is often characterized by a tension between building upon established knowledge and introducing novel ideas. Here, we investigate whether this tension is reflected in the relationship between the similarity of a scientific paper to previous research and its eventual citation rate. To operationalize similarity to previous research, we introduce two complementary metrics to characterize the local geometry of a publication's semantic neighborhood: (1) \emph{density} ($ρ$), defined as the ratio between a fixed number of previously-published papers and the minimum distance enclosing those papers in a semantic embedding space, and (2) asymmetry ($α$), defined as the average directional difference between a paper and its nearest neighbors. We tested the predictive relationship between these two metrics and its subsequent citation rate using a Bayesian hierarchical regression approach, surveying $\sim 53,000$ publications across nine academic disciplines and five different document embeddings. While the individual effects of $ρ$ on citation count are small and variable, incorporating density-based predictors consistently improves out-of-sample prediction when added to baseline models. These results suggest that the density of a paper's surrounding scientific literature may carry modest but informative signals about its eventual impact. Meanwhile, we find no evidence that publication asymmetry improves model predictions of citation rates. Our work provides a scalable framework for linking document embeddings to scientometric outcomes and highlights new questions regarding the role that semantic similarity plays in shaping the dynamics of scientific reward.
Data-Driven High-Dimensional Statistical Inference with Generative Models
Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for efficient, interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the $bbγγ$ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for efficient background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.