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Clinical characteristics, complications and outcomes of critically ill patients with Dengue in Brazil, 2012-2024: a nationwide, multicentre cohort study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Background. Dengue outbreaks are a major public health issue, with Brazil reporting 71% of global cases in 2024. Purpose. This study aims to describe the profile of severe dengue patients admitted to Brazilian Intensive Care units (ICUs) (2012-2024), assess trends over time, describe new onset complications while in ICU and determine the risk factors at admission to develop complications during ICU stay. Methods. We performed a prospective study of dengue patients from 253 ICUs across 56 hospitals. We used descriptive statistics to describe the dengue ICU population, logistic regression to identify risk factors for complications during the ICU stay, and a machine learning framework to predict the risk of evolving to complications. Visualisations were generated using ISARIC VERTEX. Results. Of 11,047 admissions, 1,117 admissions (10.1%) evolved to complications, including non-invasive (437 admissions) and invasive ventilation (166), vasopressor (364), blood transfusion (353) and renal replacement therapy (103). Age>80 (OR: 3.10, 95% CI: 2.02-4.92), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.94, 2.22-3.89), liver cirrhosis (OR: 3.65, 1.82-7.04), low platelets (<50,000 cells/mm3; OR: OR: 2.25, 1.89-2.68), and high leukocytes (>7,000 cells/mm3; OR: 2.47, 2.02-3.03) were significant risk factors for complications. A machine learning tool for predicting complications was proposed, showing accurate discrimination and calibration. Conclusion. We described a large cohort of dengue patients admitted to ICUs and identified key risk factors for severe dengue complications, such as advanced age, presence of comorbidities, higher level of leukocytes and lower level of platelets. The proposed prediction tool can be used for early identification and targeted interventions to improve outcomes in dengue-endemic regions.


This drug can turn your blood into mosquito poison

Popular Science

Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Mosquitoes may have just met their match: A prescription drug already used to treat a rare genetic disease in humans can make a person's blood poisonous to insecticide-resistant, malaria-carrying mosquitoes. New research published on July 31, 2025, in Parasites & Vectors found that the same drug, nitisinone, can even kill mosquitoes that simply land on a surface sprayed with the chemical. The findings could open up new avenues to stop the spread of diseases like malaria and dengue, especially as more mosquito populations evolve to become resistant to traditional prevention methods. Whether people will willingly offer their bodies as mosquito blood bait, though, remains less clear.


Multitask LSTM for Arboviral Outbreak Prediction Using Public Health Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--This paper presents a multitask learning approach based on long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks for the joint prediction of arboviral outbreaks and case counts of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Recife, Brazil. Leveraging historical public health data from DataSUS (2017-2023), the proposed model concurrently performs binary classification (outbreak detection) and regression (case forecasting) tasks. A sliding window strategy was adopted to construct temporal features using varying input lengths (60, 90, and 120 days), with hyperparameter optimization carried out using Keras T uner . Model evaluation used time series cross-validation for robustness and a held-out test from 2023 for generalization assessment. The results show that longer windows improve dengue regression accuracy, while classification performance peaked at intermediate windows, suggesting an optimal trade-off between sequence length and generalization. The multitask architecture delivers competitive performance across diseases and tasks, demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of unified modeling strategies for scalable epidemic forecasting in data-limited public health scenarios.


Machine Learning Models for Dengue Forecasting in Singapore

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With emerging prevalence beyond traditionally endemic regions, the global burden of dengue disease is forecasted to be one of the fastest growing. With limited direct treatment or vaccination currently available, prevention through vector control is widely believed to be the most effective form of managing outbreaks. This study examines traditional state space models (moving average, autoregressive, ARIMA, SARIMA), supervised learning techniques (XGBoost, SVM, KNN) and deep networks (LSTM, CNN, ConvLSTM) for forecasting weekly dengue cases in Singapore. Meteorological data and search engine trends were included as features for ML techniques. Forecasts using CNNs yielded lowest RMSE in weekly cases in 2019.


The Download: tracing a mysterious covid strain, and fighting dengue with drones

MIT Technology Review

Historians have started using machine learning to examine historical documents, including astronomical tables like those produced in Venice and other early modern cities. Proponents claim that the application of modern computer science to the past helps draw connections across a broader swath of the historical record than would otherwise be possible, correcting distortions that come from analyzing history one document at a time. But it introduces distortions of its own, including the risk that machine learning will slip bias or outright falsifications into the historical record. The way sea sponges pump water is really quite amazing. I never thought I'd be transfixed by a bed making competition, but here we are.


The Download: Africa's AI regulation push, and how to fight denge

MIT Technology Review

In Tanzania, farmers are using an AI-assisted app that works in their native language of Swahili to detect a devastating cassava disease before it spreads. In South Africa, computer scientists have built machine learning models to analyze the impact of racial segregation in housing. And in Nairobi, Kenya, AI classifies images from thousands of surveillance cameras perched on lampposts in the bustling city's center. The projected benefit of AI adoption on Africa's economy is tantalizing. Estimates suggest that four African countries alone--Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa--could rake in up to 136 billion worth of economic benefits by 2030 if businesses there begin using more AI tools.


Progress and Challenges for the Application of Machine Learning for Neglected Tropical Diseases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) continue to affect the livelihood of individuals in countries in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific region. These diseases have been long existing and have caused devastating health problems and economic decline to people in low- and middle-income (developing) countries. An estimated 1.7 billion of the world's population suffer one or more NTDs annually, this puts approximately one in five individuals at risk for NTDs. In addition to health and social impact, NTDs inflict significant financial burden to patients, close relatives, and are responsible for billions of dollars lost in revenue from reduced labor productivity in developing countries alone. There is an urgent need to better improve the control and eradication or elimination efforts towards NTDs. This can be achieved by utilizing machine learning tools to better the surveillance, prediction and detection program, and combat NTDs through the discovery of new therapeutics against these pathogens. This review surveys the current application of machine learning tools for NTDs and the challenges to elevate the state-of-the-art of NTDs surveillance, management, and treatment.


Correlations Between COVID-19 and Dengue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A dramatic increase in the number of outbreaks of Dengue has recently been reported, and climate change is likely to extend the geographical spread of the disease. In this context, this paper shows how a neural network approach can incorporate Dengue and COVID-19 data as well as external factors (such as social behaviour or climate variables), to develop predictive models that could improve our knowledge and provide useful tools for health policy makers. Through the use of neural networks with different social and natural parameters, in this paper we define a Correlation Model through which we show that the number of cases of COVID-19 and Dengue have very similar trends. We then illustrate the relevance of our model by extending it to a Long short-term memory model (LSTM) that incorporates both diseases, and using this to estimate Dengue infections via COVID-19 data in countries that lack sufficient Dengue data.


Diptera.ai

#artificialintelligence

Mosquitoes are the most dangerous animal on earth. Global warming is driving these mosquitoes to spread rapidly, endangering many more. Mosquitoes are the most dangerous animal on earth. Global warming is driving these mosquitoes to spread rapidly, endangering many more. Diptera.ai is developing a technology to make the sterile insect technique (SIT) for mosquito control affordable & accessible for all.


Machine Learning is Conquering Explicit Programming

#artificialintelligence

Before we proceed further to this post let us first understand what is a binary classification. So let's understand this by a very simple instance. You are at home and it's lunchtime, your mom comes to you and asks if you are hungry and want to have your lunch, your answer will be either "yes" or "no". You only have two options to reply i.e. binary options. Let's take another example of a student who has just received his result of grade 12 the result will be "passed" or "failed".