Within the formal setting of the Lockean thesis, an agent belief set is defined in terms of degrees of confidence and these are described in probabilistic terms. This approach is of established interest, notwithstanding some limitations that make its use troublesome in some contexts, like, for instance, in belief change theory. Precisely, Lockean belief sets are not generally closed under (classical) logical deduction. The aim of the present paper is twofold: on one side we provide two characterizations of those belief sets that are closed under classical logic deduction, and on the other we propose an approach to probabilistic update that allows us for a minimal revision of those beliefs, i.e., a revision obtained by making the fewest possible changes to the existing belief set while still accommodating the new information. In particular, we show how we can deductively close a belief set via a minimal revision.

Building on the analysis of Bonanno (Artificial Intelligence, 2025) we introduce a simple modal logic containing three modal operators: a unimodal belief operator, a bimodal conditional operator and the unimodal global operator. For each AGM axiom for belief revision, we provide a corresponding modal axiom. The correspondence is as follows: each AGM axiom is characterized by a property of the Kripke-Lewis frames considered in Bonanno (Artificial Intelligence, 2025) and, in turn, that property characterizes the proposed modal axiom.

Belief contraction is the operation of removing from the set K of initial beliefs a particular belief φ . One reason for doing so is, for example, the discovery that some previously trusted evidence supporting φ was faulty. For instance, a prosecutor might form the belief that the defendant is guilty on the basis of his confession; if the prosecutor later discovers that the confession was extorted, she might abandon the belief of guilt, that is, become open minded about whether the defendant is guilty or not. In their seminal contribution to belief change, Alchourrón, Gärdenfors and Makinson ([1]) defined the notion of "rational and minimal" contraction by means of a set of eight properties, known as the AGM axioms or postulates. They did so within a syntactic approach where the initial belief set K is a consistent and deductively closed set of propositional formulas and the result of removing φ from K is a new set of propositional formulas, denoted by K φ . We provide a new characterization of AGM belief contraction based on a so-far-unnoticed connection between the notion of belief contraction and the Stalnaker-Lewis theory of conditionals ([34, 21]).

An accepted belief is a proposition considered likely enough by an agent, to be inferred from as if it were true. This paper bridges the gap between probabilistic and logical representations of accepted beliefs. To this end, natural properties of relations on propositions, describing relative strength of belief are augmented with some conditions ensuring that accepted beliefs form a deductively closed set. This requirement turns out to be very restrictive. In particular, it is shown that the sets of accepted belief of an agent can always be derived from a family of possibility rankings of states. An agent accepts a proposition in a given context if this proposition is considered more possible than its negation in this context, for all possibility rankings in the family. These results are closely connected to the non-monotonic 'preferential' inference system of Kraus, Lehmann and Magidor and the so-called plausibility functions of Friedman and Halpern. The extent to which probability theory is compatible with acceptance relations is laid bare. A solution to the lottery paradox, which is considered as a major impediment to the use of non-monotonic inference is proposed using a special kind of probabilities (called lexicographic, or big-stepped). The setting of acceptance relations also proposes another way of approaching the theory of belief change after the works of Gärdenfors and colleagues. Our view considers the acceptance relation as a primitive object from which belief sets are derived in various contexts.