We present Saul, a new probabilistic programming language designed to address some of the shortcomings of programming languages that aim at advancing and simplifying the development of AI systems. Such languages need to interact with messy, naturally occurring data, to allow a programmer to specify what needs to be done at an appropriate level of abstraction rather than at the data level, to be developed on a solid theory that supports moving to and reasoning at this level of abstraction and, finally, to support flexible integration of these learning and inference models within an application program. Saul is an object-functional programming language written in Scala that facilitates these by (1) allowing a programmer to learn, name and manipulate named abstractions over relational data; (2) supporting seamless incorporation of trainable (probabilistic or discriminative) components into the program, and (3) providing a level of inference over trainable models to support composition and make decisions that respect domain and application constraints. Saul is developed over a declaratively defined relational data model, can use piecewise learned factor graphs with declaratively specified learning and inference objectives, and it supports inference over probabilistic models augmented with declarative knowledge-based constraints.We describe the key constructs of Saul and exemplify its use in developing applications that require relational feature engineering and structured output prediction.

In 1983, I gave the AAAI president's address titled "Artificial Intelligence Prepares for 2001." An article, based on that talk, was published soon after in AI Magazine. In this article, I retract or modify some of the points made in that piece and reaffirm others. Specifically, I now acknowledge the many important facets of AI research beyond high-level reasoning but maintain my view about the importance of integrated AI systems, such as mobile robots. In 1983, I gave the AAAI president's address titled "Artificial Intelligence Prepares for 2001."

Those of us engaged in artificial intelligence research have the historically unique privilege of asking and answering the most profound scientific and engineering questions that people have ever set for themselves--questions about the nature of those processes that separate us humans from the rest of the universe--namely intelligence, reason, perception, self-awareness, and language. It is clear--to most of us in AI, at least--that our field, perhaps together with molecular genetics, will be society's predominant scientific endeavor for the rest of this century and well into the next...

In 1991, Ford Motor Company began deployment of CAPE (computer-aided parts estimating system), a highly advanced knowledge-based system designed to generate, evaluate, and cost automotive part manufacturing plans. cape is engineered on an innovative, extensible, declarative process-planning and estimating knowledge representation language, which underpins the cape kernel architecture. Many manufacturing processes have been modeled to date, but eventually every significant process in motor vehicle construction will be included. Significant cost reductions are among the many benefits CAPE brings to Ford. CAPE is a highly significant system for Ford of Europe in terms of the business needs it satisfies and the corporate acceptance of AI applications: First, CAPE represents a major investment, with significant person-years of effort spent on predeployment development alone. Second, CAPE is the first large-scale production expert system to be deployed within Ford of Europe. Third, cost estimating is a critical business function. With a total annual materials budget of several billion dollars, cost control is at the heart of Ford's business. Fourth, reducing the lead time for new model programs provides a key competitive advantage. CAPE reduces estimating response time by 50 percent. Fifth, this system is enormously ambitious. The final system will capture the combined knowledge of estimating experts in all areas of automotive manufacture.