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 decision uncertainty


Uncertainty-Aware GUI Agent: Adaptive Perception through Component Recommendation and Human-in-the-Loop Refinement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graphical user interface (GUI) agents have shown promise in automating mobile tasks but still struggle with input redundancy and decision ambiguity. In this paper, we present \textbf{RecAgent}, an uncertainty-aware agent that addresses these issues through adaptive perception. We distinguish two types of uncertainty in GUI navigation: (1) perceptual uncertainty, caused by input redundancy and noise from comprehensive screen information, and (2) decision uncertainty, arising from ambiguous tasks and complex reasoning. To reduce perceptual uncertainty, RecAgent employs a component recommendation mechanism that identifies and focuses on the most relevant UI elements. For decision uncertainty, it uses an interactive module to request user feedback in ambiguous situations, enabling intent-aware decisions. These components are integrated into a unified framework that proactively reduces input complexity and reacts to high-uncertainty cases via human-in-the-loop refinement. Additionally, we propose a dataset called \textbf{ComplexAction} to evaluate the success rate of GUI agents in executing specified single-step actions within complex scenarios. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/Fanye12/RecAgent.


When Uncertainty Leads to Unsafety: Empirical Insights into the Role of Uncertainty in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Safety

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the recent developments in obstacle avoidance and other safety features, autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) continue to face safety challenges. No previous work investigated the relationship between the behavioral uncertainty of a UAV and the unsafety of its flight. By quantifying uncertainty, it is possible to develop a predictor for unsafety, which acts as a flight supervisor. We conducted a large-scale empirical investigation of safety violations using PX4-Autopilot, an open-source UAV software platform. Our dataset of over 5,000 simulated flights, created to challenge obstacle avoidance, allowed us to explore the relation between uncertain UAV decisions and safety violations: up to 89% of unsafe UAV states exhibit significant decision uncertainty, and up to 74% of uncertain decisions lead to unsafe states. Based on these findings, we implemented Superialist (Supervising Autonomous Aerial Vehicles), a runtime uncertainty detector based on autoencoders, the state-of-the-art technology for anomaly detection. Superialist achieved high performance in detecting uncertain behaviors with up to 96% precision and 93% recall. Despite the observed performance degradation when using the same approach for predicting unsafety (up to 74% precision and 87% recall), Superialist enabled early prediction of unsafe states up to 50 seconds in advance.


Know Where You're Uncertain When Planning with Multimodal Foundation Models: A Formal Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal foundation models offer a promising framework for robotic perception and planning by processing sensory inputs to generate actionable plans. However, addressing uncertainty in both perception (sensory interpretation) and decision-making (plan generation) remains a critical challenge for ensuring task reliability. We present a comprehensive framework to disentangle, quantify, and mitigate these two forms of uncertainty. We first introduce a framework for uncertainty disentanglement, isolating perception uncertainty arising from limitations in visual understanding and decision uncertainty relating to the robustness of generated plans. To quantify each type of uncertainty, we propose methods tailored to the unique properties of perception and decision-making: we use conformal prediction to calibrate perception uncertainty and introduce Formal-Methods-Driven Prediction (FMDP) to quantify decision uncertainty, leveraging formal verification techniques for theoretical guarantees. Building on this quantification, we implement two targeted intervention mechanisms: an active sensing process that dynamically re-observes high-uncertainty scenes to enhance visual input quality and an automated refinement procedure that fine-tunes the model on high-certainty data, improving its capability to meet task specifications. Empirical validation in real-world and simulated robotic tasks demonstrates that our uncertainty disentanglement framework reduces variability by up to 40% and enhances task success rates by 5% compared to baselines. These improvements are attributed to the combined effect of both interventions and highlight the importance of uncertainty disentanglement which facilitates targeted interventions that enhance the robustness and reliability of autonomous systems.


Can multivariate Granger causality detect directed connectivity of a multistable and dynamic biological decision network model?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extracting causal connections can advance interpretable AI and machine learning. Granger causality (GC) is a robust statistical method for estimating directed influences (DC) between signals. While GC has been widely applied to analysing neuronal signals in biological neural networks and other domains, its application to complex, nonlinear, and multistable neural networks is less explored. In this study, we applied time-domain multi-variate Granger causality (MVGC) to the time series neural activity of all nodes in a trained multistable biologically based decision neural network model with real-time decision uncertainty monitoring. Our analysis demonstrated that challenging two-choice decisions, where input signals could be closely matched, and the appropriate application of fine-grained sliding time windows, could readily reveal the original model's DC. Furthermore, the identified DC varied based on whether the network had correct or error decisions. Integrating the identified DC from different decision outcomes recovered most of the original model's architecture, despite some spurious and missing connectivity. This approach could be used as an initial exploration to enhance the interpretability and transparency of dynamic multistable and nonlinear biological or AI systems by revealing causal connections throughout different phases of neural network dynamics and outcomes.


New research takes another step towards self-aware artificial intelligence

#artificialintelligence

Researchers at Ulster University have published the results of their work on developing the first biological neural network model equipped with self-awareness, a form of metacognition. This breakthrough research could have important implications in providing insights into brain disorders related to distorted self-awareness, or the development of self-aware artificial intelligence (AI) machines. The Intelligent Systems Research Centre (ISRC) at Ulster University's Magee campus in Derry is the site of this pioneering research, which was recently published in the prestigious journal, Nature Communications. For years, researchers at ISRC have been working on developing and applying biologically inspired algorithms that go beyond standard AI algorithms, leveraging the solutions nature provided to solving complex problems in computing and AI. This includes utilising knowledge in brain sciences towards the development of superior and efficient computer algorithms or machines.