Traffic prediction is a flourishing research field due to its importance in human mobility in the urban space. Despite this, existing studies only focus on short-term prediction of up to few hours in advance, with most being up to one hour only. Long-term traffic prediction can enable more comprehensive, informed, and proactive measures against traffic congestion and is therefore an important task to explore. In this paper, we explore the task of long-term traffic prediction; where we predict traffic up to 24 hours in advance. We note the weaknesses of existing models--which are based on recurrent structures--for long-term traffic prediction and propose a modified Transformer model "TrafFormer". Experiments comparing our model with existing hybrid neural network models show the superiority of our model.

One of the challenges in studying the interactions in large graphs is to learn their diverse pattern and various interaction types. Hence, considering only one distribution and model to study all nodes and ignoring their diversity and local features in their neighborhoods, might severely affect the overall performance. Based on the structural information of the nodes in the graph and the interactions between them, the main graph can be divided into multiple sub-graphs. This graph partitioning can tremendously affect the learning process, however the overall performance is highly dependent on the clustering method to avoid misleading the model. In this work, we present a new framework called KD-SGL to effectively learn the sub-graphs, where we define one global model to learn the overall structure of the graph and multiple local models for each sub-graph. We assess the performance of the proposed framework and evaluate it on public datasets. Based on the achieved results, it can improve the performance of the state-of-the-arts spatiotemporal models with comparable results compared to ensemble of models with less complexity.

Traffic state prediction is necessary for many Intelligent Transportation Systems applications. Recent developments of the topic have focused on network-wide, multi-step prediction, where state of the art performance is achieved via deep learning models, in particular, graph neural network-based models. While the prediction accuracy of deep learning models is high, these models' robustness has raised many safety concerns, given that imperceptible perturbations added to input can substantially degrade the model performance. In this work, we propose an adversarial attack framework by treating the prediction model as a black-box, i.e., assuming no knowledge of the model architecture, training data, and (hyper)parameters. However, we assume that the adversary can oracle the prediction model with any input and obtain corresponding output. Next, the adversary can train a substitute model using input-output pairs and generate adversarial signals based on the substitute model. To test the attack effectiveness, two state of the art, graph neural network-based models (GCGRNN and DCRNN) are examined. As a result, the adversary can degrade the target model's prediction accuracy up to $54\%$. In comparison, two conventional statistical models (linear regression and historical average) are also examined. While these two models do not produce high prediction accuracy, they are either influenced negligibly (less than $3\%$) or are immune to the adversary's attack.

Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the performance of a time series model. When using deep neural networks as forecasting models, we hypothesize that exploiting the pairwise information among multiple (multivariate) time series also improves their forecast. If an explicit graph structure is known, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated as powerful tools to exploit the structure. In this work, we propose learning the structure simultaneously with the GNN if the graph is unknown. We cast the problem as learning a probabilistic graph model through optimizing the mean performance over the graph distribution. The distribution is parameterized by a neural network so that discrete graphs can be sampled differentiably through reparameterization. Empirical evaluations show that our method is simpler, more efficient, and better performing than a recently proposed bilevel learning approach for graph structure learning, as well as a broad array of forecasting models, either deep or non-deep learning based, and graph or non-graph based.

Accurate and reliable prediction of traffic measurements plays a crucial role in the development of modern intelligent transportation systems. Due to more complex road geometries and the presence of signal control, arterial traffic prediction is a level above freeway traffic prediction. Many existing studies on arterial traffic prediction only consider temporal measurements of flow and occupancy from loop sensors and neglect the rich spatial relationships between upstream and downstream detectors. As a result, they often suffer large prediction errors, especially for long horizons. We fill this gap by enhancing a deep learning approach, Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network, with spatial information generated from signal timing plans at targeted intersections. Traffic at signalized intersections is modeled as a diffusion process with a transition matrix constructed from the phase splits of the signal phase timing plan. We apply this novel method to predict traffic flow from loop sensor measurements and signal timing plans at an arterial intersection in Arcadia, CA. We demonstrate that our proposed method yields superior forecasts; for a prediction horizon of 30 minutes, we cut the MAPE down to 16% for morning peaks, 10% for off peaks, and even 8% for afternoon peaks. In addition, we exemplify the robustness of our model through a number of experiments with various settings in detector coverage, detector type, and data quality.

This work proposes a novel neural network architecture, called the Dynamically Controlled Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), specifically designed to model dynamical systems that are governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The current state vectors of these types of dynamical systems only depend on their state-space models, along with the respective inputs and initial conditions. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, which have proven to be very effective for memory-based tasks, may fail to model physical processes as they tend to memorize, rather than learn how to capture the information on the underlying dynamics. The proposed DCRNN includes learnable skip-connections across previously hidden states, and introduces a regularization term in the loss function by relying on Lyapunov stability theory. The regularizer enables the placement of eigenvalues of the transfer function induced by the DCRNN to desired values, thereby acting as an internal controller for the hidden state trajectory. The results show that, for forecasting a chaotic dynamical system, the DCRNN outperforms the LSTM in $100$ out of $100$ randomized experiments by reducing the mean squared error of the LSTM's forecasting by $80.0\% \pm 3.0\%$.

Traffic forecasting approaches are critical to developing adaptive strategies for mobility. Traffic patterns have complex spatial and temporal dependencies that make accurate forecasting on large highway networks a challenging task. Recently, diffusion convolutional recurrent neural networks (DCRNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results in traffic forecasting by capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the traffic. Despite the promising results, adopting DCRNN for large highway networks still remains elusive because of computational and memory bottlenecks. We present an approach to apply DCRNN for a large highway network. We use a graph-partitioning approach to decompose a large highway network into smaller networks and train them simultaneously on a cluster with graphics processing units (GPU). For the first time, we forecast the traffic of the entire California highway network with 11,160 traffic sensor locations simultaneously. We show that our approach can be trained within 3 hours of wall-clock time using 64 GPUs to forecast speed with high accuracy. Further improvements in the accuracy are attained by including overlapping sensor locations from nearby partitions and finding high-performing hyperparameter configurations for the DCRNN using DeepHyper, a hyperparameter tuning package. We demonstrate that a single DCRNN model can be used to train and forecast the speed and flow simultaneously and the results preserve fundamental traffic flow dynamics. We expect our approach for modeling a large highway network in short wall-clock time as a potential core capability in advanced highway traffic monitoring systems, where forecasts can be used to adjust traffic management strategies proactively given anticipated future conditions.

Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting that incorporates both spatial and temporal dependency in the traffic flow. Specifically, DCRNN captures the spatial dependency using bidirectional random walks on the graph, and the temporal dependency using the encoder-decoder architecture with scheduled sampling. We evaluate the framework on two real-world large scale road network traffic datasets and observe consistent improvement of 12% - 15% over state-of-the-art baselines.