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LUME-DBN: Full Bayesian Learning of DBNs from Incomplete data in Intensive Care

Pirola, Federico, Stella, Fabio, Grzegorczyk, Marco

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are increasingly used in healthcare due to their ability to model complex temporal relationships in patient data while maintaining interpretability, an essential feature for clinical decision-making. However, existing approaches to handling missing data in longitudinal clinical datasets are largely derived from static Bayesian networks literature, failing to properly account for the temporal nature of the data. This gap limits the ability to quantify uncertainty over time, which is particularly critical in settings such as intensive care, where understanding the temporal dynamics is fundamental for model trustworthiness and applicability across diverse patient groups. Despite the potential of DBNs, a full Bayesian framework that integrates missing data handling remains underdeveloped. In this work, we propose a novel Gibbs sampling-based method for learning DBNs from incomplete data. Our method treats each missing value as an unknown parameter following a Gaussian distribution. At each iteration, the unobserved values are sampled from their full conditional distributions, allowing for principled imputation and uncertainty estimation. We evaluate our method on both simulated datasets and real-world intensive care data from critically ill patients. Compared to standard model-agnostic techniques such as MICE, our Bayesian approach demonstrates superior reconstruction accuracy and convergence properties. These results highlight the clinical relevance of incorporating full Bayesian inference in temporal models, providing more reliable imputations and offering deeper insight into model behavior. Our approach supports safer and more informed clinical decision-making, particularly in settings where missing data are frequent and potentially impactful.


Beat Tracking as Object Detection

Ahn, Jaehoon, Jung, Moon-Ryul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose reframing this task as object detection, where beats and downbeats are modeled as temporal "objects." Adapting the FCOS detector from computer vision to 1D audio, we replace its original backbone with WaveBeat's temporal feature extractor and add a Feature Pyramid Network to capture multi-scale temporal patterns. The model predicts overlapping beat/downbeat intervals with confidence scores, followed by non-maximum suppression (NMS) to select final predictions. This NMS step serves a similar role to DBNs in traditional trackers, but is simpler and less heuristic. Evaluated on standard music datasets, our approach achieves competitive results, showing that object detection techniques can effectively model musical beats with minimal adaptation. 1. INTRODUCTION Beat tracking is a field of research in music information retrieval (MIR) which includes the task of beat and downbeat tracking, in which beat and downbeat positions are computationally predicted in music audio.



Scalable Interconnect Learning in Boolean Networks

Kresse, Fabian, Yu, Emily, Lampert, Christoph H.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learned Differentiable Boolean Logic Networks (DBNs) already deliver efficient inference on resource-constrained hardware. We extend them with a trainable, differentiable interconnect whose parameter count remains constant as input width grows, allowing DBNs to scale to far wider layers than earlier learnable-interconnect designs while preserving their advantageous accuracy. To further reduce model size, we propose two complementary pruning stages: an SAT-based logic equivalence pass that removes redundant gates without affecting performance, and a similarity-based, data-driven pass that outperforms a magnitude-style greedy baseline and offers a superior compression-accuracy trade-off.


Enhancing Safety Standards in Automated Systems Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Talluri, Kranthi Kumar, Madsen, Anders L., Weidl, Galia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Cut-in maneuvers in high-speed traffic pose critical challenges that can lead to abrupt braking and collisions, necessitating safe and efficient lane change strategies. We propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) framework to integrate lateral evidence with safety assessment models, thereby predicting lane changes and ensuring safe cut-in maneuvers effectively. Our proposed framework comprises three key probabilistic hypotheses (lateral evidence, lateral safety, and longitudinal safety) that facilitate the decision-making process through dynamic data processing and assessments of vehicle positions, lateral velocities, relative distance, and Time-to-Collision (TTC) computations. The DBN model's performance compared with other conventional approaches demonstrates superior performance in crash reduction, especially in critical high-speed scenarios, while maintaining a competitive performance in low-speed scenarios. This paves the way for robust, scalable, and efficient safety validation in automated driving systems. I NTRODUCTION The presence of advanced autonomous vehicles(A Vs) in real-world traffic is increasing daily, necessitating the need for robust models that can estimate risks and plan maneuvers proactively to ensure safety. Accurate detection and prediction of lane change maneuvers are crucial for collision avoidance, traffic flow optimization, and safety enhancement [2].


Temporal Causal Discovery in Dynamic Bayesian Networks Using Federated Learning

Chen, Jianhong, Ma, Ying, Yue, Xubo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditionally, learning the structure of a Dynamic Bayesian Network has been centralized, with all data pooled in one location. However, in real-world scenarios, data are often dispersed among multiple parties (e.g., companies, devices) that aim to collaboratively learn a Dynamic Bayesian Network while preserving their data privacy and security. In this study, we introduce a federated learning approach for estimating the structure of a Dynamic Bayesian Network from data distributed horizontally across different parties. We propose a distributed structure learning method that leverages continuous optimization so that only model parameters are exchanged during optimization. Experimental results on synthetic and real datasets reveal that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art techniques, particularly when there are many clients with limited individual sample sizes.


Testing Causal Explanations: A Case Study for Understanding the Effect of Interventions on Chronic Kidney Disease

Petousis, Panayiotis, Gordon, David, Nicholas, Susanne B., Bui, Alex A. T.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for evaluating the effectiveness of clinical interventions. To address the limitations of RCTs on real-world populations, we developed a methodology that uses a large observational electronic health record (EHR) dataset. Principles of regression discontinuity (rd) were used to derive randomized data subsets to test expert-driven interventions using dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) do-operations. This combined method was applied to a chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohort of more than two million individuals and used to understand the associational and causal relationships of CKD variables with respect to a surrogate outcome of >=40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The associational and causal analyses depicted similar findings across DBNs from two independent healthcare systems. The associational analysis showed that the most influential variables were eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and pulse pressure, whereas the causal analysis showed eGFR as the most influential variable, followed by modifiable factors such as medications that may impact kidney function over time. This methodology demonstrates how real-world EHR data can be used to provide population-level insights to inform improved healthcare delivery.


Beat this! Accurate beat tracking without DBN postprocessing

Foscarin, Francesco, Schlüter, Jan, Widmer, Gerhard

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a system for tracking beats and downbeats with two objectives: generality across a diverse music range, and high accuracy. We achieve generality by training on multiple datasets -- including solo instrument recordings, pieces with time signature changes, and classical music with high tempo variations -- and by removing the commonly used Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) postprocessing, which introduces constraints on the meter and tempo. For high accuracy, among other improvements, we develop a loss function tolerant to small time shifts of annotations, and an architecture alternating convolutions with transformers either over frequency or time. Our system surpasses the current state of the art in F1 score despite using no DBN. However, it can still fail, especially for difficult and underrepresented genres, and performs worse on continuity metrics, so we publish our model, code, and preprocessed datasets, and invite others to beat this.


Fast Iterative Solver For Neural Network Method: II. 1D Diffusion-Reaction Problems And Data Fitting

Cai, Zhiqiang, Doktorova, Anastassia, Falgout, Robert D., Herrera, César

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper expands the damped block Newton (dBN) method introduced recently in [4] for 1D diffusion-reaction equations and least-squares data fitting problems. To determine the linear parameters (the weights and bias of the output layer) of the neural network (NN), the dBN method requires solving systems of linear equations involving the mass matrix. While the mass matrix for local hat basis functions is tri-diagonal and well-conditioned, the mass matrix for NNs is dense and ill-conditioned. For example, the condition number of the NN mass matrix for quasi-uniform meshes is at least ${\cal O}(n^4)$. We present a factorization of the mass matrix that enables solving the systems of linear equations in ${\cal O}(n)$ operations. To determine the non-linear parameters (the weights and bias of the hidden layer), one step of a damped Newton method is employed at each iteration. A Gauss-Newton method is used in place of Newton for the instances in which the Hessian matrices are singular. This modified dBN is referred to as dBGN. For both methods, the computational cost per iteration is ${\cal O}(n)$. Numerical results demonstrate the ability dBN and dBGN to efficiently achieve accurate results and outperform BFGS for select examples.


Statistical signatures of abstraction in deep neural networks

Caputo, Carlo Orientale, Marsili, Matteo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study how abstract representations emerge in a Deep Belief Network (DBN) trained on benchmark datasets. Our analysis targets the principles of learning in the early stages of information processing, starting from the "primordial soup" of the under-sampling regime. As the data is processed by deeper and deeper layers, features are detected and removed, transferring more and more "context-invariant" information to deeper layers. We show that the representation approaches an universal model -- the Hierarchical Feature Model (HFM) -- determined by the principle of maximal relevance. Relevance quantifies the uncertainty on the model of the data, thus suggesting that "meaning" -- i.e. syntactic information -- is that part of the data which is not yet captured by a model. Our analysis shows that shallow layers are well described by pairwise Ising models, which provide a representation of the data in terms of generic, low order features. We also show that plasticity increases with depth, in a similar way as it does in the brain. These findings suggest that DBNs are capable of extracting a hierarchy of features from the data which is consistent with the principle of maximal relevance.