Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative data sources can be incorporated into actuarial models for Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) claim prediction under such constraints. Using the BeMTPL97 dataset, we adopt a zone-level modeling framework and evaluate predictive performance on unseen postcodes. Geographic information is introduced through two channels: environmental indicators from OpenStreetMap and CORINE Land Cover, and orthoimagery released by the Belgian National Geographic Institute for academic use. We evaluate the predictive contribution of coordinates, environmental features, and image embeddings across three baseline models: generalized linear models (GLMs), regularized GLMs, and gradient-boosted trees, while raw imagery is modeled using convolutional neural networks. Our results show that augmenting actuarial variables with constructed geographic information improves accuracy. Across experiments, both linear and tree-based models benefit most from combining coordinates with environmental features extracted at 5 km scale, while smaller neighborhoods also improve baseline specifications. Generally, image embeddings do not improve performance when environmental features are available; however, when such features are absent, pretrained vision-transformer embeddings enhance accuracy and stability for regularized GLMs. Our results show that the predictive value of geographic information in zone-level MTPL frequency models depends less on model complexity than on how geography is represented, and illustrate that geographic context can be incorporated despite limited individual-level spatial information.

Diffusion-based generative models have reformed generative AI, and have enabled new capabilities in the science domain, for example, generating 3D structures of molecules. Due to the intrinsic problem structure of certain tasks, there is often a symmetry in the system, which identifies objects that can be converted by a group action as equivalent, hence the target distribution is essentially defined on the quotient space with respect to the group. In this work, we establish a formal framework for diffusion modeling on a general quotient space, and apply it to molecular structure generation which follows the special Euclidean group $\text{SE}(3)$ symmetry. The framework reduces the necessity of learning the component corresponding to the group action, hence simplifies learning difficulty over conventional group-equivariant diffusion models, and the sampler guarantees recovering the target distribution, while heuristic alignment strategies lack proper samplers. The arguments are empirically validated on structure generation for small molecules and proteins, indicating that the principled quotient-space diffusion model provides a new framework that outperforms previous symmetry treatments.

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

In this paper, it is shown, for the first time, that centralized performance is achievable in decentralized learning without sharing the local datasets. Specifically, when clients adopt an empirical risk minimization with relative-entropy regularization (ERM-RER) learning framework and a forward-backward communication between clients is established, it suffices to share the locally obtained Gibbs measures to achieve the same performance as that of a centralized ERM-RER with access to all the datasets. The core idea is that the Gibbs measure produced by client~$k$ is used, as reference measure, by client~$k+1$. This effectively establishes a principled way to encode prior information through a reference measure. In particular, achieving centralized performance in the decentralized setting requires a specific scaling of the regularization factors with the local sample sizes. Overall, this result opens the door to novel decentralized learning paradigms that shift the collaboration strategy from sharing data to sharing the local inductive bias via the reference measures over the set of models.

Federated prognostics enable clients (e.g., companies, factories, and production lines) to collaboratively develop a failure time prediction model while keeping each client's data local and confidential. However, traditional federated models often assume homogeneity in the degradation processes across clients, an assumption that may not hold in many industrial settings. To overcome this, this paper proposes a personalized federated prognostic model designed to accommodate clients with heterogeneous degradation processes, allowing them to build tailored prognostic models. The prognostic model iteratively facilitates the underlying pairwise collaborations between clients with similar degradation patterns, which enhances the performance of personalized federated learning. To estimate parameters jointly using decentralized datasets, we develop a federated parameter estimation algorithm based on proximal gradient descent. The proposed approach addresses the limitations of existing federated prognostic models by simultaneously achieving model personalization, preserving data privacy, and providing comprehensive failure time distributions. The superiority of the proposed model is validated through extensive simulation studies and a case study using the turbofan engine degradation dataset from the NASA repository.

Semi-supervised learning with manifold regularization is a classical framework for jointly learning from both labeled and unlabeled data, where the key requirement is that the support of the unknown marginal distribution has the geometric structure of a Riemannian manifold. Typically, the Laplace-Beltrami operator-based manifold regularization can be approximated empirically by the Laplacian regularization associated with the entire training data and its corresponding graph Laplacian matrix. However, the graph Laplacian matrix depends heavily on the prespecified similarity metric and may lead to inappropriate penalties when dealing with redundant or noisy input variables. To address the above issues, this paper proposes a new \textit{Semi-Supervised Meta Additive Model (S$^2$MAM) based on a bilevel optimization scheme that automatically identifies informative variables, updates the similarity matrix, and simultaneously achieves interpretable predictions. Theoretical guarantees are provided for S$^2$MAM, including the computing convergence and the statistical generalization bound. Experimental assessments across 4 synthetic and 12 real-world datasets, with varying levels and categories of corruption, validate the robustness and interpretability of the proposed approach.

Out-of-distribution (OoD) generalization occurs when representation learning encounters a distribution shift. This occurs frequently in practice when training and testing data come from different environments. Covariate shift is a type of distribution shift that occurs only in the input data, while the concept distribution stays invariant. We propose RIA - Regularization for Invariance with Adversarial training, a new method for OoD generalization under convariate shift. Motivated by an analogy to $Q$-learning, it performs an adversarial exploration for counterfactual data environments. These new environments are induced by adversarial label invariant data augmentations that prevent a collapse to an in-distribution trained learner. It works with many existing OoD generalization methods for covariate shift that can be formulated as constrained optimization problems. We develop an alternating gradient descent-ascent algorithm to solve the problem in the context of causally generated graph data, and perform extensive experiments on OoD graph classification for various kinds of synthetic and natural distribution shifts. We demonstrate that our method can achieve high accuracy compared with OoD baselines.

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) can be used to create non-linear glass-box (i.e. explicitly interpretable) models, where the predictive function is fully observable over the complete input space. However, glass-box interpretability itself does not allow for the incorporation of expert knowledge from the modeller. In this paper, we present ParamBoost, a novel GAM whose shape functions (i.e. mappings from individual input features to the output) are learnt using a Gradient Boosting algorithm that fits cubic polynomial functions at leaf nodes. ParamBoost incorporates several constraints commonly used in parametric analysis to ensure well-refined shape functions. These constraints include: (i) continuity of the shape functions and their derivatives (up to C2); (ii) monotonicity; (iii) convexity; (iv) feature interaction constraints; and (v) model specification constraints. Empirical results show that the unconstrained ParamBoost model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art GAMs across several real-world datasets. We further demonstrate that modellers can selectively impose required constraints at a modest trade-off in predictive performance, allowing the model to be fully tailored to application-specific interpretability and parametric-analysis requirements.

Inference-time LLM alignment methods, particularly activation steering, offer an alternative to fine-tuning by directly modifying activations during generation. Existing methods, however, often rely on non-anticipative interventions that ignore how perturbations propagate through transformer layers and lack online error feedback, resulting in suboptimal, open-loop control. To address this, we show empirically that, despite the nonlinear structure of transformer blocks, layer-wise dynamics across multiple LLM architectures and scales are well-approximated by locally-linear models. Exploiting this property, we model LLM inference as a linear time-varying dynamical system and adapt the classical linear quadratic regulator to compute feedback controllers using layer-wise Jacobians, steering activations toward desired semantic setpoints in closed-loop with minimal computational overhead and no offline training. We also derive theoretical bounds on setpoint tracking error, enabling formal guarantees on steering performance. Using a novel adaptive semantic feature setpoint signal, our method yields robust, fine-grained behavior control across models, scales, and tasks, including state-of-the-art modulation of toxicity, truthfulness, refusal, and arbitrary concepts, surpassing baseline steering methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/trustworthyrobotics/lqr-activation-steering

Abstract--Recovering latent structure from count data has received considerable attention in network inference, particularly when one seeks both cross-group interactions and within-group similarity patterns in bipartite networks, which is widely used in ecology research. Such networks are often sparse and inherently imperfect in their detection. Existing models mainly focus on interaction recovery, while the induced similarity graphs are much less studied. Moreover, sparsity is often not controlled, and scale is unbalanced, leading to oversparse or poorly rescaled estimates with degrading structural recovery. We impose nonconvex ℓ1/2 regularization on the latent similarity and connectivity structures to promote sparsity within-group similarity and cross-group connectivity with better relative scale. To solve it, we develop an ADMM-based algorithm with adaptive penalization and scale-aware initialization and establish its asymptotic feasibility and KKT stationarity of cluster points under mild regularity conditions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world ecological datasets demonstrate improved recovery of latent factors and similarity/connectivity structure relative to existing baselines. Index Terms--augmented Lagrangian, nonconvex nonsmooth optimization, nonnegative matrix factorization, link prediction, ecological network inference, structured sparse recovery I. INTRODUCTION This setting is inherent in sensing and monitoring applications [3], [4], where observations, such as counts, are obtained via an imperfect sampling process. In this paper, we are interested in ecological interaction networks describing how species associate with locations and how environments shape biodiversity patterns [5], [6].