Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Large Language Models (LLMs) are pretrained on textual data up to a specific temporal cutoff. This creates a strict knowledge boundary beyond which models cannot provide accurate information without querying external sources. More subtly, when this limitation is unknown or ignored, LLMs may inadvertently blend outdated time-sensitive information with general knowledge during reasoning tasks, potentially compromising response accuracy. We introduce LLMLagBench, an LLM freshness benchmark, as a systematic approach for identifying the earliest probable temporal boundaries of an LLM's training data by evaluating its knowledge of recent events. We then apply this benchmark to evaluate a large set of LLMs, including models with both explicitly declared and undeclared training cutoffs. The reliability of the benchmark is assessed by manual validation and comparison with publicly released information about LLM pretraining.

Using ideas from the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) literature, previous works (e.g., [

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive.

Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this work by training a comprehensive set of machine learning models using a common dataset. In addition, we relate the win probabilities produced by these models to win strength as measured by score differential. In doing so we show that the most common machine learning models do indeed demonstrate a relationship between predicted win probability and the strength of the win. Finally, we analyze the results of using predicted win probabilities as a decision making mechanism on run-line betting. We demonstrate positive returns when utilizing appropriate betting strategies, and show that naive use of machine learning models for betting lead to significant loses.

Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive.