We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and disconnected prediction sets, signifying the emergence of bifurcations. Our approach uses existing estimated conditional highest density predictive regions to form initial predictive regions. We then use a quantile random forest conformal adjustment to provide guaranteed coverage while adaptively changing to take the non-exchangeable nature of time-series data into account. We show that the proposed method achieves the guaranteed coverage rate asymptotically under certain regularity conditions. In particular, the method is doubly robust -- it works if the predictive density model is correctly specified and/or if the scores follow a nonlinear autoregressive model with the correct order specified. Simulations reveal that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of empirical coverage rates and set sizes. We illustrate the method using two real datasets, the Old Faithful geyser dataset and the Australian electricity usage dataset. Prediction sets formed using SCDR for the geyser eruption durations include both single intervals and unions of two intervals, whereas existing methods produce wider, less informative, single-interval prediction sets.

We introduce Bayesian distributed stochastic gradient descent (BDSGD), a high-throughput algorithm for training deep neural networks on parallel computing clusters. This algorithm uses amortized inference in a deep generative model to perform joint posterior predictive inference of mini-batch gradient computation times in a compute cluster specific manner. Specifically, our algorithm mitigates the straggler effect in synchronous, gradient-based optimization by choosing an optimal cutoff beyond which mini-batch gradient messages from slow workers are ignored. The principle novel contribution and finding of this work goes beyond this by demonstrating that using the predicted run-times from a generative model of cluster worker performance improves over the static-cutoff prior art, leading to higher gradient computation throughput on large compute clusters. In our experiments we show that eagerly discarding the mini-batch gradient computations of stragglers not only increases throughput but sometimes also increases the overall rate of convergence as a function of wall-clock time by virtue of eliminating idleness.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Large Language Models (LLMs) are pretrained on textual data up to a specific temporal cutoff. This creates a strict knowledge boundary beyond which models cannot provide accurate information without querying external sources. More subtly, when this limitation is unknown or ignored, LLMs may inadvertently blend outdated time-sensitive information with general knowledge during reasoning tasks, potentially compromising response accuracy. We introduce LLMLagBench, an LLM freshness benchmark, as a systematic approach for identifying the earliest probable temporal boundaries of an LLM's training data by evaluating its knowledge of recent events. We then apply this benchmark to evaluate a large set of LLMs, including models with both explicitly declared and undeclared training cutoffs. The reliability of the benchmark is assessed by manual validation and comparison with publicly released information about LLM pretraining.

In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this work by training a comprehensive set of machine learning models using a common dataset. In addition, we relate the win probabilities produced by these models to win strength as measured by score differential. In doing so we show that the most common machine learning models do indeed demonstrate a relationship between predicted win probability and the strength of the win. Finally, we analyze the results of using predicted win probabilities as a decision making mechanism on run-line betting. We demonstrate positive returns when utilizing appropriate betting strategies, and show that naive use of machine learning models for betting lead to significant loses.

Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.