We connect stochastic resetting from non-equilibrium statistical physics with ridge regularization in statistical learning. For linear gradient flow, resetting to the origin at rate $r$ produces stationary mean $(X^\top X+rI)^{-1}X^\top y$, exactly the ridge estimator with penalty $λ=r$. This uses the known Laplace-transform relationship between ridge regression and exponential-time averaging of gradient flow, with the exponential time now interpreted as the stationary age associated with Poisson resetting. We then extend this identity to general renewal reset laws: the exponential reset time distribution is the unique renewal law whose stationary mean reproduces scalar ridge in every eigendirection as an exact filter identity for every positive curvature, while non-exponential renewal laws generate alternative spectral filters. At the fluctuation level, we study a separate additive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck extension with constant diffusion, interpreted as a stylized SGD approximation. In this setting, the equality holds only at the level of the mean, since the reset process has a nonzero stationary covariance from accumulated OU noise and reset-timing variance, whereas deterministic ridge is a fixed estimator with the same center. Stylized experiments compare the deterministic renewal-induced filters directly and illustrate when filters induced by non-exponential reset-time laws can differ predictively from ridge. The results for the stationary mean and the induced spectral filters are established for continuous-time gradient flow with isotropic resetting on quadratic objectives; the covariance and risk formulas additionally assume additive noise with state-independent covariance.

We introduce Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series (TR-SBTS), a conservative extension of the SBTS framework in which the Brownian reference is replaced by an intervalwise frozen, possibly degenerate diffusion reference, triangular across a hierarchy of latent volatility levels. The construction is a single entropy projection on the augmented state space, with the variational constraint imposed jointly across time and the latent levels and unfolded hierarchically by the disintegration of relative entropy. The variational core of SBTS is preserved: the entropy minimiser is the h-transform of the reference, and on each frozen interval the optimal dynamics admit a logarithmic-gradient drift formula on the affine leaves of the active covariance directions, valid even when the frozen covariance is rank-deficient. We establish stability of the frozen approximation and convergence of the corresponding regularised kernel estimators. The construction is realised through a finite-dimensional conditioning map assembled from three complementary reductions of the past -- a block PCR summary, a reference-aware Mahalanobis kernel on past increments induced by the runtime frozen covariance cumulants, and a past-window WLS drift regressor under the same reference metric -- together with a coupled state-covariance bridge step in which each latent level produces a dynamic reference for the level above, summarised by a covariance descriptor; the construction is evaluated on numerical experiments.

Obtaining stable diffusion-based samplers in high- and infinite-dimensional settings is challenging because errors can accumulate across high-frequency coordinates and make the dynamics unstable under refinement of the finite-dimensional approximation of the underlying function-space problem. Discretization is a typical source of such errors, and preconditioning with a suitable spectral decay is one way to control their accumulation. In this paper, we study this problem for preconditioned annealed Langevin dynamics (ALD) applied to Gaussian mixtures. We first show that Euler-Maruyama (EM) discretization, by treating the stiff linear part of the annealed score with a forward Euler step, imposes a stability constraint coupling the preconditioner with the annealed covariance scale. Together with the conditions ensuring dimension-uniform control of the annealed dynamics, this constraint forces the initial smoothed law to remain uniformly close to the target across dimensions. We then consider an exponential-integrator scheme that integrates the stiff linear part of the annealed score exactly. Under explicit spectral summability conditions coupling the smoothing covariance, the component covariance spectra, and the preconditioner, we prove a dimension-uniform Kullback-Leibler (KL) bound for this scheme. This bound can be made arbitrarily small, uniformly in dimension, by allowing enough time for annealing and then refining the time mesh accordingly. Importantly, these conditions allow regimes in which the KL divergence between the target and the initial smoothed law diverges with dimension, showing that the restrictions imposed by EM are scheme-dependent rather than intrinsic to ALD.

We propose Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching (CCVFM), a generative model that augments hierarchical rectified flow with a data-informed source distribution. Hierarchical flow matching models the full conditional velocity law in velocity space, but its inner flow is asked to transport isotropic Gaussian noise to a multimodal target velocity distribution from scratch. Our key observation is that this inner source can be replaced by a closed-form surrogate built from a coreset of the target. CCVFM first compresses the target into weighted atoms using an entropic Sinkhorn coreset and lifts them to a Gaussian mixture. The induced conditional velocity law is then a closed-form Gaussian mixture that can be sampled without a learned neural sampler. A lightweight correction flow, trained from this exact surrogate source, then refines the remaining surrogate-to-target residual rather than learning an entire noise-to-data map. We prove that the surrogate transport cost equals the target--surrogate Wasserstein gap under an explicit compression assumption, whereas the noise-source analogue has a dimension-scale lower bound. We further characterize the conditional second moment of the direct surrogate-source training target and show that its source-dependent excess is small when the surrogate conditional law is close to the true conditional velocity law in mean and covariance. Empirically, on MNIST, CIFAR-10, ImageNet-32, and CelebA-HQ, the proposed method reaches competitive few-step generation under matched architectures.

Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two components: the first attributed to a small number of factors that are common among the assets and the second attributed to the idiosyncratic behavior of each asset. Third-party providers typically provide risk models to investors, and while these models are typically of high quality, they may fail to capture important information, e.g., changing market regimes and transient factors. To overcome these limitations, we propose a systematic method based on maximum likelihood estimation to enhance an existing factor model by both refining the given model and adding new statistical factors. Our approach relies only on the observed sequence of realized returns and on the choice of two hyperparameters: the number of additional factors and the half-life parameter that determines the weights assigned to returns in the log-likelihood objective. Importantly, our methodology applies to the situation where asset returns may be missing, making it suitable for typical equity datasets. We demonstrate our approach on the Barra short-term US risk model, a high-quality risk model used in practice, for a universe of US high-capitalization equities. We show that the proposed extension captures structure in the returns that is missed by the original model.

Discrete automated processes in industrial and cyber-physical systems often exhibit a repetitive structure in which successive repetitions follow a common trajectory while differing in duration, amplitude, and fine-scale dynamics. Such \emph{approximately periodic} behavior poses a challenge for Gaussian Processes (GP) modeling: strictly periodic models suppress inter-repetition variability, while non-periodic models fail to capture the strong structural regularities required for generation. In this work, we propose a stochastic generative model for approximately periodic time series. The model is based on a GP whose posterior is modulated by a novel kernel. Our approach decouples intra-repetition structure from inter-repetition variability through a two-stage construction which yields a generative distribution with a identical mean function across repetitions, while allowing smooth variation between repetitions. The modeling choices are supported by an implementation in which realistic synthetic trajectories are generated from toy datasets.

We present the Spatial Adapter, a parameter-efficient post-hoc layer that equips any frozen first-stage predictor with a structured spatial representation of its residual field and an induced closed-form spatial covariance. The adapter operates as a cascade second stage on residuals, jointly learning a spatially regularized orthonormal basis and per-sample scores via a tractable mini-batch ADMM procedure, without modifying any first-stage parameter. Because the first-stage parameters are frozen, the adapter does not retrain the backbone; its role is to supply a compressed distributional summary of the residual field. Smoothness, sparsity, and orthogonality together turn a generic low-rank factorization into an identifiable spatial representation whose induced residual covariance admits a closed-form low-rank-plus-noise estimator; the effective rank is determined data-adaptively by spectral thresholding, while the nominal rank K is an optimization-side upper bound only. This covariance enables kriging-style spatial prediction at unobserved locations, with plug-in uncertainty quantification as a secondary downstream use. Across synthetic data, Weather2K for spatial-holdout prediction, and GWHD patch grids as a basis-transferability diagnostic, the adapter recovers residual spatial structure when paired with frozen first stages from linear models to deep spatiotemporal and vision backbones; the added representation uses fewer than K(N+T) parameters alongside a compact residual-trend network.

Probabilistic linear solvers (PLSs) return probability distributions that quantify uncertainty due to limited computation in the solution of linear systems. The literature has traditionally distinguished between Bayesian PLSs, which condition a prior on information obtained from projections of the linear system, and probabilistic iterative methods (PIMs), which lift classical iterative solvers to probability space. In this work we show this dichotomy to be false: Bayesian PLSs are a special case of non-stationary affine PIMs. In addition, we prove that any realistic affine PIM is calibrated. These results motivate a focus on (non-stationary) affine PIMs, but their practical adoption has been limited by the significant manual effort required to implement them. To address this, we introduce affine tracing, an algorithmic framework that automatically constructs a PIM from a standard implementation of an affine iterative method by passing symbolic tracers through the computation to build an affine computational graph. We show how this graph can be transformed to compute posterior covariances, and how equality saturation can be used to perform algebraic simplifications required for computation under specific prior choices. We demonstrate the framework by automatically generating a probabilistic multigrid solver and evaluate its performance in the context of Gaussian process approximation.

Distributional treatment effects can be invisible to means: a treatment may preserve average outcomes while changing tails, modes, dispersion, or rare-event probabilities. Kernel tests can detect discrepancies between interventional outcome laws, but global tests do not reveal where the laws differ. We propose DR-ME, to our knowledge the first semiparametrically efficient finite-location test for interpretable distributional treatment effects. DR-ME evaluates an interventional kernel witness at learned outcome locations, returning causal-discrepancy coordinates rather than only a global rejection. From observational data, we derive orthogonal doubly robust kernel features whose centered oracle form is the canonical gradient of this finite witness. For fixed locations, we characterize the local testing limit: DR-ME is chi-square calibrated under the null, has noncentral chi-square local power, and uses the covariance whitening that optimizes local signal-to-noise for discrepancies visible through the selected coordinates. This efficient local-power geometry yields a principled location-learning criterion, with sample splitting preserving post-selection validity. Experiments show near-nominal type-I error, competitive power against global doubly robust kernel tests, and interpretable learned locations that localize distributional effects in a semi-synthetic medical-imaging study.

Activation-alignment measures such as Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA), Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), and Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA) are widely used to compare biological and artificial neural representations. Recent theoretical work interprets many of these methods as assessing agreement between optimal linear readouts over broad families of global tasks. However, agreement at the level of global readouts does not determine how a system uses local stimulus evidence. Specifically, representations may align in activation space yet differ in their sensitivity to small perturbations. To address this challenge, we introduce a complementary framework based on local decodable information, which focuses on a representation's ability, under noise, to discriminate small perturbations within a specified stimulus-coordinate subspace. Building on Fisher information and local representation geometry, we summarize each representation using the expected projected pullback/Fisher metric over that subspace. This formulation induces a second-moment family of local discrimination tasks, for which the resulting operator provides a minimal, complete dataset-level summary of expected discriminability. We compare these regularized signatures using a log-spectral distance on the manifold of symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices, yielding the Spectral Riemannian Alignment Score (S-RAS) and a uniform multiplicative certificate over the corresponding family of lifted task values. Empirically, this framework enables the recovery of corresponding layers across independently trained artificial neural networks, supports transferable class-conditional probes, reveals controlled dissociations between standard and robust training, and uncovers stimulus-coordinate family effects across mouse visual cortex using the Allen Brain Observatory static gratings dataset.