Monitoring for changes in a predictive relationship represented by a fitted supervised learning model (aka concept drift detection) is a widespread problem, e.g., for retrospective analysis to determine whether the predictive relationship was stable over the training data, for prospective analysis to determine when it is time to update the predictive model, for quality control of processes whose behavior can be characterized by a predictive relationship, etc. A general and powerful Fisher score-based concept drift approach has recently been proposed, in which concept drift detection reduces to detecting changes in the mean of the model's score vector using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA). To implement the approach, the initial data must be split into two subsets. The first subset serves as the training sample to which the model is fit, and the second subset serves as an out-of-sample test set from which the MEWMA control limit (CL) is determined. In this paper, we develop a novel bootstrap procedure for computing the CL. Our bootstrap CL provides much more accurate control of false-alarm rate, especially when the sample size and/or false-alarm rate is small. It also allows the entire initial sample to be used for training, resulting in a more accurate fitted supervised learning model. We show that a standard nested bootstrap (inner loop accounting for future data variability and outer loop accounting for training sample variability) substantially underestimates variability and develop a 632-like correction that appropriately accounts for this. We demonstrate the advantages with numerical examples.

This paper investigates how diffusion generative models leverage (unknown) low-dimensional structure to accelerate sampling. Focusing on two mainstream samplers -- the denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM) and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) -- and assuming accurate score estimates, we prove that their iteration complexities are no greater than the order of $k/\varepsilon$ (up to some log factor), where $\varepsilon$ is the precision in total variation distance and $k$ is some intrinsic dimension of the target distribution. Our results are applicable to a broad family of target distributions without requiring smoothness or log-concavity assumptions. Further, we develop a lower bound that suggests the (near) necessity of the coefficients introduced by Ho et al.(2020) and Song et al.(2020) in facilitating low-dimensional adaptation. Our findings provide the first rigorous evidence for the adaptivity of the DDIM-type samplers to unknown low-dimensional structure, and improve over the state-of-the-art DDPM theory regarding total variation convergence.

To quantify uncertainty, conformal prediction methods are gaining continuously more interest and have already been successfully applied to various domains. However, they are difficult to apply to time series as the autocorrelative structure of time series violates basic assumptions required by conformal prediction. We propose HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that not only copes with temporal structures but leverages them. We show that our approach is theoretically well justified for time series where temporal dependencies are present. In experiments, we demonstrate that our new approach outperforms state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods on multiple real-world time series datasets from four different domains.

Most machine learning (ML) systems assume stationary and matching data distributions during training and deployment. This is often a false assumption. When ML models are deployed on real devices, data distributions often shift over time due to changes in environmental factors, sensor characteristics, and task-of-interest. While it is possible to have a human-in-the-loop to monitor for distribution shifts and engineer new architectures in response to these shifts, such a setup is not cost-effective. Instead, non-stationary automated ML (AutoML) models are needed. This paper presents the Encoder-Adaptor-Reconfigurator (EAR) framework for efficient continual learning under domain shifts. The EAR framework uses a fixed deep neural network (DNN) feature encoder and trains shallow networks on top of the encoder to handle novel data. The EAR framework is capable of 1) detecting when new data is out-of-distribution (OOD) by combining DNNs with hyperdimensional computing (HDC), 2) identifying low-parameter neural adaptors to adapt the model to the OOD data using zero-shot neural architecture search (ZS-NAS), and 3) minimizing catastrophic forgetting on previous tasks by progressively growing the neural architecture as needed and dynamically routing data through the appropriate adaptors and reconfigurators for handling domain-incremental and class-incremental continual learning. We systematically evaluate our approach on several benchmark datasets for domain adaptation and demonstrate strong performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for OOD detection and few-/zero-shot NAS.

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), ..., (x_n, y_n)$, conformal prediction is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the data is exchangeable. While appealing, the computation of such set turns out to be infeasible in general, e.g. when the unknown variable $y_{n+1}$ is continuous. In this paper, we combine conformal prediction techniques with algorithmic stability bounds to derive a prediction set computable with a single model fit. We perform some numerical experiments that illustrate the tightness of our estimation when the sample size is sufficiently large.