The process of editing an image can be naturally modeled as evaluating a counterfactual query: "What would an image look like if a particular feature had changed?" While recent advances in text-guided image editing leverage powerful pre-trained models to produce visually appealing images, they often lack counterfactual consistency - ignoring how features are causally related and how changing one may affect others. In contrast, existing causal-based editing approaches offer solid theoretical foundations and perform well in specific settings, but remain limited in scalability and often rely on labeled data. In this work, we aim to bridge the gap between causal editing and large-scale text-to-image generation through two main contributions. First, we introduce Backdoor Disentangled Causal Latent Space (BD-CLS), a new class of latent spaces that allows for the encoding of causal inductive biases. One desirable property of this latent space is that, even under weak supervision, it can be shown to exhibit counterfactual consistency. Second, and building on this result, we develop BD-CLS-Edit, an algorithm capable of learning a BD-CLS from a (non-causal) pre-trained Stable Diffusion model. This enables counterfactual image editing without retraining. Our method ensures that edits respect the causal relationships among features, even when some features are unlabeled or unprompted and the original latent space is oblivious to the environment's underlying cause-and-effect relationships.

A central challenge in organ transplantation is the extremely low acceptance rate of donor organ offers--typically in the single digits--leading to high discard rates and suboptimal use of available grafts. Current acceptance models embedded in allocation systems are non-causal, trained on observational data, and fail to generalize to policy-relevant counterfactuals. This limits their reliability for both policy evaluation and simulator-based optimization. In this work, we reframe organ offer acceptance as a counterfactual prediction problem and propose a method to learn from routinely recorded--but often overlooked--refusal explanations. These refusal reasons act as direction-only counterfactual signals: for example, a refusal reason such as "old donor age" implies acceptance might have occurred had the donor been younger. We formalize this setting and introduce CLEXNET, a novel causal model that learns policy-invariant representations via balanced training and an explanation-guided augmentation loss. On both synthetic and semi-synthetic data, CLEXNET outperforms existing acceptance models in predictive performance, generalization, and calibration, offering a robust drop-in improvement for simulators and allocation policy evaluation. Beyond transplantation, our approach provides a general method for incorporating human direction-only explanations as a form of model supervision, improving performance in settings where only observational data is available.

We address the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data. Pearl (2000) argues that counterfactuals must be identifiable (i.e., recoverable from the observed data distribution) to justify causal claims. A recent line of work on counterfactual inference shows promising results but lacks identification, undermining the causal validity of its estimates. To address this, we establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings under standard criteria. We characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map with tools from dynamic optimal transport, ensuring consistent inference. Building on this, we validate the theory in controlled scenarios with counterfactual ground-truth and demonstrate improvements in axiomatic counterfactual soundness on real images.

Object-context shortcuts remain a persistent challenge in vision-language models, undermining zero-shot reliability when test-time scenes differ from familiar training co-occurrences. We recast this issue as a causal inference problem and ask: Would the prediction remain if the object appeared in a different environment? To answer this at inference time, we estimate object and background expectations within CLIP's representation space, and synthesize counterfactual embeddings by recombining object features with diverse alternative contexts sampled from external datasets, batch neighbors, or text-derived descriptions. By estimating the Total Direct Effect and simulating intervention, we further subtract background-only activation, preserving beneficial object-context interactions while mitigating hallucinated scores. Without retraining or prompt design, our method substantially improves both worst-group and average accuracy on context-sensitive benchmarks, establishing a new zero-shot state of the art. Beyond performance, our framework provides a lightweight representation-level counterfactual approach, offering a practical causal avenue for debiased and reliable multimodal reasoning. The implementation is available at https://github.com/peipeng98.

Graphical models have been widely used as parsimonious encoders of assumptions of the underlying causal system and provide a basis for causal inferences. Models encoding stronger constraints tend to require higher expressive power, which are also harder, and sometimes impossible to empirically falsify. In this paper, we introduce two new collections of distributions that include counterfactual quantities which are experimentally accessible under counterfactual randomizations. Correspondingly, we define two new classes of graphical models for encoding empirically testable constraints in these distributions. We further present a sound and complete calculus, based on counterfactual calculus, which licenses inferences in these two new models with rules that are within the empirically falsifiable boundary. Finally, we formulate a hierarchy over several graphical models based on the constraints they encode and study the fundamental trade-off between the expressive power and empirical falsifiability of different models across the hierarchy.

Most counterfactual inference frameworks traditionally assume acyclic structural causal models (SCMs), i.e. directed acyclic graphs (DAGs).

Machine learning models now influence decisions that directly affect people's lives, making it important to understand not only their predictions, but also how individuals could act to obtain better results. Algorithmic recourse provides actionable input modifications to achieve more favorable outcomes, typically relying on counterfactual explanations to suggest such changes. However, when the Rashomon set - the set of near-optimal models - is large, standard counterfactual explanations can become unreliable, as a recourse action valid for one model may fail under another. We introduce ElliCE, a novel framework for robust algorithmic recourse that optimizes counterfactuals over an ellipsoidal approximation of the Rashomon set. The resulting explanations are provably valid over this ellipsoid, with theoretical guarantees on uniqueness, stability, and alignment with key feature directions. Empirically, ElliCE generates counterfactuals that are not only more robust but also more flexible, adapting to user-specified feature constraints while being substantially faster than existing baselines. This provides a principled and practical solution for reliable recourse under model uncertainty, ensuring stable recommendations for users even as models evolve.

Contextual Markov Decision Processes (cMDP) model this challenge, but existing methods often require explicit context variables (e.g., friction, gravity), limiting their use when contexts are latent or hard to measure. We introduce Dynamics-Aligned Latent Imagination (DALI), a framework integrated within the Dreamer architecture that infers latent context representations from agent-environment interactions. By training a self-supervised encoder to predict forward dynamics, DALI generates actionable representations conditioning the world model and policy, bridging perception and control. We theoretically prove this encoder is essential for efficient context inference and robust generalization. DALI's latent space enables counterfactual consistency: Perturbing a gravity-encoding dimension alters imagined rollouts in physically plausible ways. On challenging cMDP benchmarks, DALI achieves significant gains over contextunaware baselines, often surpassing context-aware baselines in extrapolation tasks, enabling zero-shot generalization to unseen contextual variations.

Counterfactual explanations play a pivotal role in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) by offering intuitive, human-understandable alternatives that elucidate machine learning model decisions. Despite their significance, existing methods for generating counterfactuals often require constant access to the predictive model, involve computationally intensive optimization for each instance and lack the flexibility to adapt to new user-defined constraints without retraining. In this paper, we propose DiCoFlex, a novel model-agnostic, conditional generative framework that produces multiple diverse counterfactuals in a single forward pass. Leveraging conditional normalizing flows trained solely on labeled data, DiCoFlex addresses key limitations by enabling real-time user-driven customization of constraints such as sparsity and actionability at inference time. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that DiCoFlex outperforms existing methods in terms of validity, diversity, proximity, and constraint adherence, making it a practical and scalable solution for counterfactual generation in sensitive decision-making domains.

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have greatly improved crossmodal semantic understanding, yet significant limitations remain in fine-grained discrimination and deep causal reasoning tasks. Existing VLMs often rely on superficial statistical correlations, lacking the ability to capture the underlying causal logic between visual and textual content. To address this, we propose CounterFactual Vision-Language Fine-tuning (CF-VLM), a novel framework that enhances the causal reasoning capabilities of VLMs through the targeted use of counterfactual samples. CF-VLM introduces three complementary training objectives: maintaining foundational cross-modal alignment, reinforcing the uniqueness, and stability of factual scene representations against coherent counterfactuals, and sharpening the model's sensitivity to minimal but critical causal edits. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CF-VLM consistently outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods on compositional reasoning and generalization benchmarks. Furthermore, it shows promise in mitigating visual hallucinations, indicating improved factual consistency. Our CF-VLM provides a robust foundation for deploying VLMs in high-stakes, real-world scenarios requiring reliable reasoning and interpretability code.