corruption probability
Conformal Prediction with Corrupted Labels: Uncertain Imputation and Robust Re-weighting
Feldman, Shai, Bates, Stephen, Romano, Yaniv
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets that cover the test label with a pre-specified probability. The validity of conformal prediction, however, holds under the i.i.d assumption, which does not hold in our setting due to the corruptions in the data. To account for this distribution shift, the privileged conformal prediction (PCP) method proposed leveraging privileged information (PI) -- additional features available only during training -- to re-weight the data distribution, yielding valid prediction sets under the assumption that the weights are accurate. In this work, we analyze the robustness of PCP to inaccuracies in the weights. Our analysis indicates that PCP can still yield valid uncertainty estimates even when the weights are poorly estimated. Furthermore, we introduce uncertain imputation (UI), a new conformal method that does not rely on weight estimation. Instead, we impute corrupted labels in a way that preserves their uncertainty. Our approach is supported by theoretical guarantees and validated empirically on both synthetic and real benchmarks. Finally, we show that these techniques can be integrated into a triply robust framework, ensuring statistically valid predictions as long as at least one underlying method is valid.
Robust Conformal Prediction Using Privileged Information
We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to construct prediction sets that are valid under the i.i.d assumption. Importantly, naively applying conformal prediction does not provide reliable predictions in this setting, due to the distribution shift induced by the corruptions. To account for the distribution shift, we assume access to privileged information (PI). The PI is formulated as additional features that explain the distribution shift, however, they are only available during training and absent at test time. We approach this problem by introducing a novel generalization of weighted conformal prediction and support our method with theoretical coverage guarantees. Empirical experiments on both real and synthetic datasets indicate that our approach achieves a valid coverage rate and constructs more informative predictions compared to existing methods, which are not supported by theoretical guarantees.