Discovering a correlation from one variable to another variable is of fundamental scientific and practical interest. While existing correlation measures are suitable for discovering average correlation, they fail to discover hidden or potential correlations. To bridge this gap, (i) we postulate a set of natural axioms that we expect a measure of potential correlation to satisfy; (ii) we show that the rate of information bottleneck, i.e., the hypercontractivity coefficient, satisfies all the proposed axioms; (iii) we provide a novel estimator to estimate the hypercontractivity coefficient from samples; and (iv) we provide numerical experiments demonstrating that this proposed estimator discovers potential correlations among various indicators of WHO datasets, is robust in discovering gene interactions from gene expression time series data, and is statistically more powerful than the estimators for other correlation measures in binary hypothesis testing of canonical examples of potential correlations.

The correlation between events is ubiquitous and important for temporal events modelling. In many cases, the correlation exists between not only events' emitted observations, but also their arrival times. State space models (e.g., hidden Markov model) and stochastic interaction point process models (e.g., Hawkes process) have been studied extensively yet separately for the two types of correlations in the past. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach that considers both types of correlations via unifying and generalizing hidden semi-Markov model and interaction point process model. The proposed approach can simultaneously model both the observations and arrival times of temporal events, and determine the number of latent states from data.

Multiplicative noise, including dropout, is widely used to regularize deep neural networks (DNNs), and is shown to be effective in a wide range of architectures and tasks. From an information perspective, we consider injecting multiplicative noise into a DNN as training the network to solve the task with noisy information pathways, which leads to the observation that multiplicative noise tends to increase the correlation between features, so as to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of information pathways. However, high feature correlation is undesirable, as it increases redundancy in representations. In this work, we propose non-correlating multiplicative noise (NCMN), which exploits batch normalization to remove the correlation effect in a simple yet effective way. We show that NCMN significantly improves the performance of standard multiplicative noise on image classification tasks, providing a better alternative to dropout for batch-normalized networks. Additionally, we present a unified view of NCMN and shake-shake regularization, which explains the performance gain of the latter.

Data parallelism can boost the training speed of convolutional neural networks (CNN), but could suffer from significant communication costs caused by gradient aggregation. To alleviate this problem, several scalar quantization techniques have been developed to compress the gradients. But these techniques could perform poorly when used together with decentralized aggregation protocols like ring all-reduce (RAR), mainly due to their inability to directly aggregate compressed gradients. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate the strong linear correlations between CNN gradients, and propose a gradient vector quantization technique, named GradiVeQ, to exploit these correlations through principal component analysis (PCA) for substantial gradient dimension reduction. GradiveQ enables direct aggregation of compressed gradients, hence allows us to build a distributed learning system that parallelizes GradiveQ gradient compression and RAR communications. Extensive experiments on popular CNNs demonstrate that applying GradiveQ slashes the wall-clock gradient aggregation time of the original RAR by more than 5x without noticeable accuracy loss, and reduce the end-to-end training time by almost 50%. The results also show that \GradiveQ is compatible with scalar quantization techniques such as QSGD (Quantized SGD), and achieves a much higher speed-up gain under the same compression ratio.

This paper introduces a distillation framework for an ensemble of entropy-optimal Sparse Probabilistic Approximation (eSPA) models, trained exclusively on satellite-era observational and reanalysis data to predict ENSO phase up to 24 months in advance. While eSPA ensembles yield state-of-the-art forecast skill, they are harder to interpret than individual eSPA models. We show how to compress the ensemble into a compact set of "distilled" models by aggregating the structure of only those ensemble members that make correct predictions. This process yields a single, diagnostically tractable model for each forecast lead time that preserves forecast performance while also enabling diagnostics that are impractical to implement on the full ensemble. An analysis of the regime persistence of the distilled model "superclusters", as well as cross-lead clustering consistency, shows that the discretised system accurately captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of ENSO. By considering the effective dimension of the feature importance vectors, the complexity of the input space required for correct ENSO phase prediction is shown to peak when forecasts must cross the boreal spring predictability barrier. Spatial importance maps derived from the feature importance vectors are introduced to identify where predictive information resides in each field and are shown to include known physical precursors at certain lead times. Case studies of key events are also presented, showing how fields reconstructed from distilled model centroids trace the evolution from extratropical and inter-basin precursors to the mature ENSO state. Overall, the distillation framework enables a rigorous investigation of long-range ENSO predictability that complements real-time data-driven operational forecasts.

Participants are not allowed to modify the training procedure.

We derive a tighter inequality than Cauchy-Schwarz Inequality, leverage it to refine Pearson's