In this work, we study offline convex optimization with smooth objectives, where the classical Nesterov's Accelerated Gradient (NAG) method achieves the optimal accelerated convergence. Extensive research has aimed to understand NAG from various perspectives, and a recent line of work approaches this from the viewpoint of online learning and online-to-batch conversion, emphasizing the role of optimistic online algorithms for acceleration. In this work, we contribute to this perspective by proposing novel optimistic online-to-batch conversions that incorporate optimism theoretically into the analysis, thereby significantly simplifying the online algorithm design while preserving the optimal convergence rates. Specifically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our conversions through the following results: (i) when combined with simple online gradient descent, our optimistic conversion achieves the optimal accelerated convergence; (ii) our conversion also applies to strongly convex objectives, and by leveraging both optimistic online-to-batch conversion and optimistic online algorithms, we achieve the optimal accelerated convergence rate for strongly convex and smooth objectives, for the first time through the lens of online-to-batch conversion; (iii) our optimistic conversion can achieve universality to smoothness -- applicable to both smooth and non-smooth objectives without requiring knowledge of the smoothness coefficient -- and remains efficient as non-universal methods by using only one gradient query in each iteration. Finally, we highlight the effectiveness of our optimistic online-to-batch conversions by a precise correspondence with NAG.

Smoothness is known to be crucial for acceleration in offline optimization, and for gradient-variation regret minimization in online learning. Interestingly, these two problems are actually closely connected -- accelerated optimization can be understood through the lens of gradient-variation online learning. In this paper, we investigate online learning with Hölder smooth functions, a general class encompassing both smooth and non-smooth (Lipschitz) functions, and explore its implications for offline optimization.

Treatment allocation under budget constraints is a central challenge in digital advertising: advertisers must decide which users to show ads to while spending a limited budget wisely. The standard approach follows a two-stage offline pipeline - first collect historical data to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), then solve a constrained optimization to allocate the budget. This works well with abundant data, but fails in cold-start settings such as new campaigns, new markets, or new customer segments where little historical data exists. We propose Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns which users respond to ads while simultaneously spending the budget, making treatment decisions one user at a time. BCCB unifies three components into a single sequential process: learning individual-level ad effectiveness, exploring users whose response is uncertain, and pacing the budget over time. We evaluated on the Criteo Uplift dataset, a large-scale advertising dataset from a real randomized controlled trial. Our key finding is a data-efficiency crossover: offline methods require approximately 10,000 historical observations to produce reliable results, while BCCB operates effectively from the very first user. Furthermore, BCCB exhibits 3-5x lower performance variance between runs, making it more practical for real campaign planning. Among purely online methods, BCCB consistently outperforms standard Thompson Sampling, budgeted Thompson Sampling, and greedy HTE estimation across all budget levels tested.

Many experiments compare count outcomes among treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary tests. Observations typically arrive in a sequence and practitioners wish to continuously monitor their experiments, sequentially testing hypotheses while maintaining Type I error probabilities under optional stopping and continuation. These goals are frequently complicated in practice by non-stationary time dynamics. We provide practical solutions through sequential tests of multinomial hypotheses, hypotheses about many inhomogeneous Bernoulli processes and hypotheses about many timeinhomogeneous Poisson counting processes. For estimation, we further provide confidence sequences for multinomial probability vectors, all contrasts among probabilities of inhomogeneous Bernoulli processes and all contrasts among intensities of time-inhomogeneous Poisson counting processes. Together, these provide an "anytime-valid" inference framework for a wide variety of experiments dealing with count outcomes, which we illustrate with several industry applications.

Incrementality, which measures the causal effect of showing an ad to a potential customer (e.g. a user in an internet platform) versus not, is a central object for advertisers in online advertising platforms. This paper investigates the problem of how an advertiser can learn to optimize the bidding sequence in an online manner without knowing the incrementality parameters in advance. We formulate the offline version of this problem as a specially structured episodic Markov Decision Process (MDP) and then, for its online learning counterpart, propose a novel reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm with regret at most eO(H2 T), which depends on the number of rounds H and number of episodes T, but does not depend on the number of actions (i.e., possible bids). A fundamental difference between our learning problem from standard RL problems is that the realized reward feedback from conversion incrementality is mixed and delayed. To handle this difficulty we propose and analyze a novel pairwise moment-matching algorithm to learn the conversion incrementality, which we believe is of independent interest.

Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the limitations of existing conversion methods. Firstly, we propose an odds-only method to convert betting odds to probabilities without using historical data for model fitting. While existing odds-only methods, such as Multiplicative, Shin, and Power exist, they do not adjust for biases or relationships we found in our betting odds dataset, which consists of 90014 football matches across five different bookmakers. To overcome these limitations, our proposed Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) method aligns with the bookmakers' pricing objectives of having equal confidence in profitability for each outcome. We provide empirical evidence from our betting odds dataset that, for the majority of bookmakers, our proposed OO-EPC method outperforms the existing odds-only methods. Beyond controlled experiments, we applied the OO-EPC method under real-world uncertainty by using it for six iterations of an annual basketball outcome forecasting competition. Secondly, we propose a generalised linear model that utilises historical data for model fitting and then converts betting odds to probabilities. Existing generalised linear models attempt to capture relationships that the Efficient Market Hypothesis already captures. To overcome this shortcoming, our proposed Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM) fits just one parameter to capture the favourite-longshot bias, providing a more interpretable alternative. We provide empirical evidence from historical football matches where, for all bookmakers, our proposed FL-GLM outperforms the existing multinomial and logistic generalised linear models.

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