Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or enhance the precision of estimating key parameters. Current approaches for inference after adaptive sampling either rely on asymptotic normality under restricted experiment designs or underpowered martingale concentration inequalities that lead to weak power in practice. To bypass these limitations, we propose a simulation-based approach for conducting hypothesis tests and constructing confidence intervals for arm specific means and their differences. Our simulation-based approach uses positively biased nuisances to generate additional trajectories of the experiment, which we call simulation with optimism. Using these simulations, we characterize the distribution potentially non-normal sample mean test statistic to conduct inference. We provide guarantees for (i) asymptotic type I error control, (ii) convergence of our confidence intervals, and (iii) asymptotic strong consistency of our estimator over a wide variety of common bandit designs. Our empirical results show that our approach achieves the desired coverage while reducing confidence interval widths by up to 50%, with drastic improvements for arms not targeted by the design.

A variety of infinitely wide neural architectures (e.g., dense NNs, CNNs, and transformers) induce Gaussian process (GP) priors over their outputs. These relationships provide both an accurate characterization of the prior predictive distribution and enable the use of GP machinery to improve the uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks. In this work, we extend this connection to neural operators (NOs), a class of models designed to learn mappings between function spaces. Specifically, we show conditions for when arbitrary-depth NOs with Gaussiandistributed convolution kernels converge to function-valued GPs. Based on this result, we show how to compute the covariance functions of these NO-GPs for two NO parametrizations, including the popular Fourier neural operator (FNO). With this, we compute the posteriors of these GPs in regression scenarios, including PDE solution operators. This work is an important step towards uncovering the inductive biases of current FNO architectures and opens a path to incorporate novel inductive biases for use in kernel-based operator learning methods.

In this paper, we propose a flow-based method for learning all-to-all transfer maps among conditional distributions that approximates pairwise optimal transport. The proposed method addresses the challenge of handling the case of continuous conditions, which often involve a large set of conditions with sparse empirical observations per condition. We introduce a novel cost function that enables simultaneous learning of optimal transports for all pairs of conditional distributions. Our method is supported by a theoretical guarantee that, in the limit, it converges to the pairwise optimal transports among infinite pairs of conditional distributions. The learned transport maps are subsequently used to couple data points in conditional flow matching. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on synthetic and benchmark datasets, as well as on chemical datasets in which continuous physical properties are defined as conditions.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for adaptively collected data, such as that coming from adaptive experiments, bandits, or reinforcement learning, is necessary for critical elements of data collection such as ensuring safety and conducting afterstudy inference. The data's adaptivity creates significant challenges for frequentist UQ, yet Bayesian UQ remains the same as if the data were independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), making it an appealing and commonly used approach. Bayesian UQ requires the (correct) specification of a prior distribution while frequentist UQ does not, but for i.i.d.

Meritocratic systems, from admissions to hiring, aim to impartially reward skill and effort.

Table 3 outlines the and reasoning tasks included in the MMPerspective benchmark. Sample cases and representative questions are included to illustrate the task format and input style. We also show examples of perspective-invariant image operations for robustness evaluation in Figure 17, including cropping, masking, flipping, and rotation. Where is the vanishing point in this image? Critical Line Perception (CLP) 123 Figure 9 Determine which of the highlighted lines is the horizon line. Which line highlighted in the image is the Horizon Line?

To investigate this further, we first observe that Claude-3.7-Sonnet Figure 1 shows the average pass rate under budgets of 12,000, 10 14,000, 16,000, and 17,000 tokens. As the data demonstrate, enlarging the thinking budget yields no 11 appreciable improvement in performance. This finding underscores 14 the challenging nature of ENGDESIGN and suggests its value as a rigorous testbed for future efforts 15 to enhance LLMs' engineering design proficiency. Figure 1: Average pass rate (%) of Claude-3.7-Thinking

Constrained decoding enables Language Models (LMs) to produce samples that provably satisfy hard constraints. However, existing constrained-decoding approaches often distort the underlying model distribution, a limitation that is especially problematic in applications like program fuzzing, where one wants to generate diverse and valid program inputs for testing purposes. We propose a new constrained sampling framework based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that simultaneously satisfies three core desiderata: constraint satisfying (every sample satisfies the constraint), monotonically converging (the sampling process converges to the true conditional distribution), and efficient (high-quality samples emerge in few steps). Our method constructs a proposal distribution over valid outputs and applies a Metropolis-Hastings acceptance criterion based on the LM's likelihood, ensuring principled and efficient exploration of the constrained space. Empirically, our sampler outperforms existing methods on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world program fuzzing tasks 1.

Sparse neural networks promise efficiency, yet training them effectively remains a fundamental challenge. Despite advances in pruning methods that create sparse architectures, understanding why some sparse structures are better trainable than others with the same level of sparsity remains poorly understood. Aiming to develop a systematic approach to this fundamental problem, we propose a novel theoretical framework based on the theory of graph limits, particularly graphons, that characterizes sparse neural networks in the infinite-width regime. Our key insight is that connectivity patterns of sparse neural networks induced by pruning methods converge to specific graphons as networks' width tends to infinity, which encodes implicit structural biases of different pruning methods. We postulate the Graphon Limit Hypothesis and provide empirical evidence to support it. Leveraging this graphon representation, we derive a Graphon Neural Tangent Kernel (Graphon NTK) to study the training dynamics of sparse networks in the infinite width limit. Graphon NTK provides a general framework for the theoretical analysis of sparse networks. We empirically show that the spectral analysis of Graphon NTK correlates with observed training dynamics of sparse networks, explaining the varying convergence behaviours of different pruning methods. Our framework provides theoretical insights into the impact of connectivity patterns on the trainability of various sparse network architectures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong generative capabilities but remain prone to inconsistencies and hallucinations. We introduce Peer Elicitation Games (PEG), a training-free, game-theoretic framework for aligning LLMs through a peer elicitation mechanism involving a generator and multiple discriminators instantiated from distinct base models. Discriminators interact in a peer evaluation setting, where utilities are computed using a determinant-based mutual information score that provably incentivizes truthful reporting without requiring ground-truth labels. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that each agent, via online learning, achieves sublinear regret in the sense their cumulative performance approaches that of the best fixed truthful strategy in hindsight. Moreover, we prove last-iterate convergence to a truthful Nash equilibrium, ensuring that the actual policies used by agents converge to stable and truthful behavior over time. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant improvements in factual accuracy.