Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parameterized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units.

In this work, we aim to optimize the radio resource management of a communication system between a remote controller and its device, whose state is represented through image frames, without compromising the performance of the control task. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) technique to jointly model and predict the dynamics of the control system as well as the wireless propagation environment in latent space. Our method leverages two coupled joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEP As): a control JEP A models the control dynamics and guides the predictions of a wireless JEP A, which captures the dynamics of the device's channel state information (CSI) through cross-modal conditioning. We then train a deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to derive a control policy from latent control dynamics and a power predictor to estimate scheduling intervals with favorable channel conditions based on latent CSI representations. As such, the controller minimizes the usage of radio resources by utilizing the coupled JEP A networks to imagine the device's trajectory in latent space. We present simulation results on synthetic multimodal data and show that our proposed approach reduces transmit power by over 50% while maintaining control performance comparable to baseline methods that do not account for wireless optimization.

Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parameterized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so many free parameters that the model fits the training data perfectly. We first investigate high-dimensional linear regression for imputing wage data and estimating average treatment effects, where we find that models with many more covariates than sample size can outperform simple ones. We then document the performance of high-dimensional synthetic control estimators with many control units. We find that adding control units can help improve imputation performance even beyond the point where the pre-treatment fit is perfect. We provide a unified theoretical perspective on the performance of these high-dimensional models. Specifically, we show that more complex models can be interpreted as model-averaging estimators over simpler ones, which we link to an improvement in average performance. This perspective yields concrete insights into the use of synthetic control when control units are many relative to the number of pre-treatment periods.

Conducting causal inference with panel data is a core challenge in social science research. We adapt a deep neural architecture for time series forecasting (the N-BEATS algorithm) to more accurately predict the counterfactual evolution of a treated unit had treatment not occurred. Across a range of settings, the resulting estimator ("SyNBEATS") significantly outperforms commonly employed methods (synthetic controls, two-way fixed effects), and attains comparable or more accurate performance compared to recently proposed methods (synthetic difference-in-differences, matrix completion). Our results highlight how advances in the forecasting literature can be harnessed to improve causal inference in panel data settings.

This paper presents new methods for analyzing and evaluating generalized plans that can solve broad classes of related planning problems. Although synthesis and learning of generalized plans has been a longstanding goal in AI, it remains challenging due to fundamental gaps in methods for analyzing the scope and utility of a given generalized plan. This paper addresses these gaps by developing a new conceptual framework along with proof techniques and algorithmic processes for assessing termination and goal-reachability related properties of generalized plans. We build upon classic results from graph theory to decompose generalized plans into smaller components that are then used to derive hierarchical termination arguments. These methods can be used to determine the utility of a given generalized plan, as well as to guide the synthesis and learning processes for generalized plans. We present theoretical as well as empirical results illustrating the scope of this new approach. Our analysis shows that this approach significantly extends the class of generalized plans that can be assessed automatically, thereby reducing barriers in the synthesis and learning of reliable generalized plans.

This paper presents new methods for analyzing and evaluating generalized plans that can solve broad classes of related planning problems. Although synthesis and learning of generalized plans has been a longstanding goal in AI, it remains challenging due to fundamental gaps in methods for analyzing the scope and utility of a given generalized plan. This paper addresses these gaps by developing a new conceptual framework along with proof techniques and algorithmic processes for assessing termination and goal-reachability related properties of generalized plans. We build upon classic results from graph theory to decompose generalized plans into smaller components that are then used to derive hierarchical termination arguments. These methods can be used to determine the utility of a given generalized plan, as well as to guide the synthesis and learning processes for generalized plans. We present theoretical as well as empirical results illustrating the scope of this new approach. Our analysis shows that this approach significantly extends the class of generalized plans that can be assessed automatically, thereby reducing barriers in the synthesis and learning of reliable generalized plans.

Active inference is an account of cognition and behavior in complex systems which brings together action, perception, and learning under the theoretical mantle of Bayesian inference. Active inference has seen growing applications in academic research, especially in fields that seek to model human or animal behavior. While in recent years, some of the code arising from the active inference literature has been written in open source languages like Python and Julia, to-date, the most popular software for simulating active inference agents is the DEM toolbox of SPM, a MATLAB library originally developed for the statistical analysis and modelling of neuroimaging data. Increasing interest in active inference, manifested both in terms of sheer number as well as diversifying applications across scientific disciplines, has thus created a need for generic, widely-available, and user-friendly code for simulating active inference in open-source scientific computing languages like Python. The Python package we present here, pymdp (see https://github.com/infer-actively/pymdp), represents a significant step in this direction: namely, we provide the first open-source package for simulating active inference with partially-observable Markov Decision Processes or POMDPs. We review the package's structure and explain its advantages like modular design and customizability, while providing in-text code blocks along the way to demonstrate how it can be used to build and run active inference processes with ease. We developed pymdp to increase the accessibility and exposure of the active inference framework to researchers, engineers, and developers with diverse disciplinary backgrounds. In the spirit of open-source software, we also hope that it spurs new innovation, development, and collaboration in the growing active inference community.

Table2Text systems generate textual output based on structured data utilizing machine learning. These systems are essential for fluent natural language interfaces in tools such as virtual assistants; however, left to generate freely these ML systems often produce misleading or unexpected outputs. GenNI (Generation Negotiation Interface) is an interactive visual system for high-level human-AI collaboration in producing descriptive text. The tool utilizes a deep learning model designed with explicit control states. These controls allow users to globally constrain model generations, without sacrificing the representation power of the deep learning models. The visual interface makes it possible for users to interact with AI systems following a Refine-Forecast paradigm to ensure that the generation system acts in a manner human users find suitable. We report multiple use cases on two experiments that improve over uncontrolled generation approaches, while at the same time providing fine-grained control. A demo and source code are available at https://genni.vizhub.ai .

Controllable text generation is an appealing but challenging task, which allows users to specify particular attributes of the generated outputs. In this paper, we propose a controllable dialogue generation model to steer response generation under multi-attribute constraints. Specifically, we define and categorize the commonly used control attributes into global and local ones, which possess different granularities of effects on response generation. Then, we significantly extend the conventional seq2seq framework by introducing a novel two-stage decoder, which first uses a multi-grained style specification layer to impose the stylistic constraints and determine word-level control states of responses based on the attributes, and then employs a response generation layer to generate final responses maintaining both semantic relevancy to the contexts and fidelity to the attributes. Furthermore, we train our model with an attribute consistency reward to promote response control with explicit supervision signals. Extensive experiments and in-depth analyses on two datasets indicate that our model can significantly outperform competitive baselines in terms of response quality, content diversity and controllability.