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Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales

Shaer, Shalev, Bar, Yarin, Prinster, Drew, Romano, Yaniv

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.







SoftMatcha 2: A Fast and Soft Pattern Matcher for Trillion-Scale Corpora

Yoneda, Masataka, Matsushita, Yusuke, Kamoda, Go, Suenaga, Kohei, Akiba, Takuya, Waga, Masaki, Yokoi, Sho

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present an ultra-fast and flexible search algorithm that enables search over trillion-scale natural language corpora in under 0.3 seconds while handling semantic variations (substitution, insertion, and deletion). Our approach employs string matching based on suffix arrays that scales well with corpus size. To mitigate the combinatorial explosion induced by the semantic relaxation of queries, our method is built on two key algorithmic ideas: fast exact lookup enabled by a disk-aware design, and dynamic corpus-aware pruning. We theoretically show that the proposed method suppresses exponential growth in the search space with respect to query length by leveraging statistical properties of natural language. In experiments on FineWeb-Edu (Lozhkov et al., 2024) (1.4T tokens), we show that our method achieves significantly lower search latency than existing methods: infini-gram (Liu et al., 2024), infini-gram mini (Xu et al., 2025), and SoftMatcha (Deguchi et al., 2025). As a practical application, we demonstrate that our method identifies benchmark contamination in training corpora, unidentified by existing approaches. We also provide an online demo of fast, soft search across corpora in seven languages.