conjunction fallacy
Meaningless is better: hashing bias-inducing words in LLM prompts improves performance in logical reasoning and statistical learning
Chadimová, Milena, Jurášek, Eduard, Kliegr, Tomáš
This paper introduces a novel method, referred to as "hashing", which involves masking potentially bias-inducing words in large language models (LLMs) with hash-like meaningless identifiers to reduce cognitive biases and reliance on external knowledge. The method was tested across three sets of experiments involving a total of 490 prompts. Statistical analysis using chi-square tests showed significant improvements in all tested scenarios, which covered LLama, ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini and Mixtral models. In the first experiment, hashing decreased the fallacy rate in a modified version of the "Linda" problem aimed at evaluating susceptibility to cognitive biases. In the second experiment, it improved LLM results on the frequent itemset extraction task. In the third experiment, we found hashing is also effective when the Linda problem is presented in a tabular format rather than text, indicating that the technique works across various input representations. Overall, the method was shown to improve bias reduction and incorporation of external knowledge. Despite bias reduction, hallucination rates were inconsistently reduced across types of LLM models. These findings suggest that masking bias-inducing terms can improve LLM performance, although its effectiveness is model- and task-dependent.
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GPT's Judgements Under Uncertainty
Saeedi, Payam, Goodarzi, Mahsa
--We investigate the presence of cognitive biases in three large language models (LLMs): GPT -4o, Gemma 2, and Llama 3.1. The study uses 1,500 experiments across nine established cognitive biases to evaluate the responses and consistency of the models. GPT -4o demonstrated the strongest overall performance. Gemma 2 showed strengths in addressing the sunk cost fallacy and prospect theory; however, its performance varied across different biases. Llama 3.1 consistently underperformed, relying on heuristics and exhibiting frequent inconsistencies and contradictions. The findings highlight the challenges of achieving robust and generalizable reasoning in LLMs, and underscore the need for further development to mitigate biases in artificial general intelligence (AGI). The study emphasizes the importance of integrating statistical reasoning and ethical considerations in future AI development. Cognitive biases and heuristics are well-established phenomena of the human mind, shaping how individuals process information, make judgments, and make decisions. These biases emerge from heuristics -- mental shortcuts that simplify complex tasks by substituting them with cognitively easier alternatives [1]. While heuristics enable quick and efficient reasoning, they also introduce systematic errors that impact judgment and decision-making [2]-[4]. Understanding whether such biases, embedded in the data and interactions that shape Large Language Models (LLMs), are reflected in their outputs is not only critical for evaluating their alignment with human cognition but also vital for the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI, envisioned as systems capable of performing any intellectual task a human can, must navigate the intricacies of human-like reasoning while avoiding harmful or irresponsible biases.
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Analyzing Large language models chatbots: An experimental approach using a probability test
Peruchini, Melise, Teixeira, Julio Monteiro
This study consists of qualitative empirical research, conducted through exploratory tests with two different Large Language Models (LLMs) chatbots: ChatGPT and Gemini. The methodological procedure involved exploratory tests based on prompts designed with a probability question. The "Linda Problem", widely recognized in cognitive psychology, was used as a basis to create the tests, along with the development of a new problem specifically for this experiment, the "Mary Problem". The object of analysis is the dataset with the outputs provided by each chatbot interaction. The purpose of the analysis is to verify whether the chatbots mainly employ logical reasoning that aligns with probability theory or if they are more frequently affected by the stereotypical textual descriptions in the prompts. The findings provide insights about the approach each chatbot employs in handling logic and textual constructions, suggesting that, while the analyzed chatbots perform satisfactorily on a well-known probabilistic problem, they exhibit significantly lower performance on new tests that require direct application of probabilistic logic.
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A Peek into Token Bias: Large Language Models Are Not Yet Genuine Reasoners
Jiang, Bowen, Xie, Yangxinyu, Hao, Zhuoqun, Wang, Xiaomeng, Mallick, Tanwi, Su, Weijie J., Taylor, Camillo J., Roth, Dan
This study introduces a hypothesis-testing framework to assess whether large language models (LLMs) possess genuine reasoning abilities or primarily depend on token bias. We go beyond evaluating LLMs on accuracy; rather, we aim to investigate their token bias in solving logical reasoning tasks. Specifically, we develop carefully controlled synthetic datasets, featuring conjunction fallacy and syllogistic problems. Our framework outlines a list of hypotheses where token biases are readily identifiable, with all null hypotheses assuming genuine reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The findings in this study suggest, with statistical guarantee, that most LLMs still struggle with logical reasoning. While they may perform well on classic problems, their success largely depends on recognizing superficial patterns with strong token bias, thereby raising concerns about their actual reasoning and generalization abilities.
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AI tools like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini are 'irrational' and prone to making simple mistakes, study finds
While you might expect AI to be the epitome of cold, logical reasoning, researchers now suggest that they might be even more illogical than humans. Researchers from University College London put seven of the top AIs through a series of classic tests designed to test human reasoning. Even the best-performing AIs were found to be irrational and prone to simple mistakes, with most models getting the answer wrong more than half the time. However, the researchers also found that these models weren't irrational in same way as a human while some even refused to answer logic questions on'ethical grounds'. Olivia Macmillan-Scott, a PhD student at UCL and lead author on the paper, says: 'Based on the results of our study and other research on Large Language Models, it's safe to say that these models do not'think' like humans yet.'
Heuristic Reasoning in AI: Instrumental Use and Mimetic Absorption
Mukherjee, Anirban, Chang, Hannah Hanwen
Heuristics in human cognition--cognitive shortcuts that facilitate mental processing--are situated within contrasting narratives. Simon's notion of bounded rationality (Simon 1955) casts heuristics as tools that enable navigation in environments too complex for the unaided mind. When aligned with psychological capacities and grounded in ecological rationality, a parallel view advocates for a'fast and frugal' approach to cognition (Gigerenzer and Goldstein 1996), where heuristics serve as scaffolds in decisions that might prove unnecessary, intractable, or suboptimal if reliant solely on analytic processing (Simon 1956). In contrast, a'heuristics as bias' view frames heuristics as leading to systematic and predictable deviations from optimal decision-making, given standards of complete information processing (Gilovich et al. 2002, Tversky and Kahneman 1974). Implicit in the latter perspective is the assumed feasibility of complete analytic processing--the use of a shortcut only yields a suboptimal outcome (i.e., biased decision-making leads to suboptimal outcomes) if the optimal is achievable; clearly in situations where analytic processing is infeasible, a heuristic can yield a better decision than random chance. Drawing from human cognition, our paper proposes a novel program of heuristic reasoning as it applies to artificial intelligence (AI) cognition.
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Analyizing the Conjunction Fallacy as a Fact
Since the seminal paper by Tversky and Kahneman, the conjunction fallacy has been the subject of multiple debates and become a fundamental challenge for cognitive theories in decision-making. In this article, we take a rather uncommon perspective on this phenomenon. Instead of trying to explain the nature or causes of the conjunction fallacy (intensional definition), we analyze its range of factual possibilities (extensional definition). We show that the majority of research on the conjunction fallacy, according to our sample of experiments reviewed which covers literature between 1983 and 2016, has focused on a narrow part of the a priori factual possibilities, implying that explanations of the conjunction fallacy are fundamentally biased by the short scope of possibilities explored. The latter is a rather curious aspect of the research evolution in the conjunction fallacy considering that the very nature of it is motivated by extensional considerations.
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Causal Perception
Alvarez, Jose M., Ruggieri, Salvatore
Perception occurs when two individuals interpret the same information differently. Despite being a known phenomenon with implications for bias in decision-making, as individuals' experience determines interpretation, perception remains largely overlooked in automated decision-making (ADM) systems. In particular, it can have considerable effects on the fairness or fair usage of an ADM system, as fairness itself is context-specific and its interpretation dependent on who is judging. In this work, we formalize perception under causal reasoning to capture the act of interpretation by an individual. We also formalize individual experience as additional causal knowledge that comes with and is used by an individual. Further, we define and discuss loaded attributes, which are attributes prone to evoke perception. Sensitive attributes, such as gender and race, are clear examples of loaded attributes. We define two kinds of causal perception, unfaithful and inconsistent, based on the causal properties of faithfulness and consistency. We illustrate our framework through a series of decision-making examples and discuss relevant fairness applications. The goal of this work is to position perception as a parameter of interest, useful for extending the standard, single interpretation ADM problem formulation.
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What's the Problem, Linda? The Conjunction Fallacy as a Fairness Problem
The field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is focusing on creating automated decision-making (ADM) systems that operate as close as possible to human-like intelligence. This effort has pushed AI researchers into exploring cognitive fields like psychology. The work of Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky on biased human decision-making, including the study of the conjunction fallacy, has experienced a second revival because of this. Under the conjunction fallacy a human decision-maker will go against basic probability laws and rank as more likely a conjunction over one of its parts. It has been proven overtime through a set of experiments with the Linda Problem being the most famous one. Although this interdisciplinary effort is welcomed, we fear that AI researchers ignore the driving force behind the conjunction fallacy as captured by the Linda Problem: the fact that Linda must be stereotypically described as a woman. In this paper we revisit the Linda Problem and formulate it as a fairness problem. In doing so we introduce perception as a parameter of interest through the structural causal perception framework. Using an illustrative decision-making example, we showcase the proposed conceptual framework and its potential impact for developing fair ADM systems.
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First steps to a constructor theory of cognition
This article applies the conceptual framework of constructor theory of information to cognition theory. The main result of this work is that cognition theory, in specific situations concerning for example the conjunction fallacy heuristic, requires the use of superinformation media, just as quantum theory. This result entails that quantum and cognition theories can be considered as elements of a general class of superinformation-based subsidiary theories.
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