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Intervention and Conditioning in Causal Bayesian Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.


Eliminating Negative Occurrences of Derived Predicates from PDDL Axioms

Grundke, Claudia, Röger, Gabriele

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Axioms are a feature of the Planning Domain Definition Language PDDL that can be considered as a generalization of database query languages such as Datalog. The PDDL standard restricts negative occurrences of predicates in axiom bodies to predicates that are directly set by actions and not derived by axioms. In the literature, authors often deviate from this limitation and only require that the set of axioms is stratifiable. Both variants can express exactly the same queries as least fixed-point logic, indicating that negative occurrences of derived predicates can be eliminated. We present the corresponding transformation.


Intervention and Conditioning in Causal Bayesian Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.


Extending Defeasibility for Propositional Standpoint Logics

Leisegang, Nicholas, Meyer, Thomas, Varzinczak, Ivan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we introduce a new defeasible version of propositional standpoint logic by integrating Kraus et al.'s defeasible conditionals, Britz and Varzinczak's notions of defeasible necessity and distinct possibility, along with Leisegang et al.'s approach to defeasibility into the standpoint logics of Gómez Álvarez and Rudolph. The resulting logical framework allows for the expression of defeasibility on the level of implications, standpoint modal operators, and standpoint-sharpening statements. We provide a preferential semantics for this extended language and propose a tableaux calculus, which is shown to be sound and complete with respect to preferential entailment. We also establish the computational complexity of the tableaux procedure to be in PSpace.


On the logical skills of large language models: evaluations using arbitrarily complex first-order logic problems

Ibragimov, Shokhrukh, Jentzen, Arnulf, Kuckuck, Benno

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a method of generating first-order logic statements whose complexity can be controlled along multiple dimensions. We use this method to automatically create several datasets consisting of questions asking for the truth or falsity of first-order logic statements in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. While the resolution of these questions does not require any knowledge beyond basic notation of first-order logic and set theory, it does require a degree of planning and logical reasoning, which can be controlled up to arbitrarily high difficulty by the complexity of the generated statements. Furthermore, we do extensive evaluations of the performance of various large language models, including recent models such as DeepSeek-R1 and OpenAI's o3-mini, on these datasets. All of the datasets along with the code used for generating them, as well as all data from the evaluations is publicly available at https://github.com/bkuckuck/logical-skills-of-llms.


On the Power and Limitations of Examples for Description Logic Concepts

Cate, Balder ten, Koudijs, Raoul, Ozaki, Ana

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the power soltera2 is a positive example for C, and of labeled examples for describing description-logic px10 and teslaY are negative examples for C concepts. Specifically, we systematically study the In fact, as it turns out, C is the only EL-concept (up to equivalence) existence and efficient computability of finite characterisations, that fits these three labeled examples. In other words, i.e., finite sets of labeled examples these three labeled examples "uniquely characterize" C within that uniquely characterize a single concept, for a the class of all EL-concepts. This shows that the above three wide variety of description logics between EL and labeled examples are a good choice of examples. Adding any ALCQI,both without an ontology and in the presence additional examples would be redundant. Note, however, that of a DL-Lite ontology. Finite characterisations this depends on the choice of description logic. For instance, are relevant for debugging purposes, and their existence the richer concept language ALC allows for other concept is a necessary condition for exact learnability expressions such as Bicycle Contains.Basket that also fit.


Intervention and Conditioning in Causal Bayesian Networks

Galhotra, Sainyam, Halpern, Joseph Y.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.


Pondering the Ugly Underbelly, and Whether Images are Real

Communications of the ACM

I tell my computer science students that we go through proofs not to show WHAT is true, but WHY it's true. During an interesting consultation with a graduate student who wanted to know whether I proved the Cook-Levin Theorem when I taught that result in the Foundations of Computing class, I said that I had, indeed, and that every teacher should. As is the human predilection, I became ever more fully convinced that I was right as I expounded on it. The textbook in use is Michael Sipser 3rd Edition [Sipser]. In Section 7.4, we see Cook-Levin as Theorem 7.37: SAT is NP-Complete.


Explaining Image Classifiers

Chockler, Hana, Halpern, Joseph Y.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We focus on explaining image classifiers, taking the work of Mothilal et al. [2021] (MMTS) as our point of departure. We observe that, although MMTS claim to be using the definition of explanation proposed by Halpern [2016], they do not quite do so. Roughly speaking, Halpern's definition has a necessity clause and a sufficiency clause. MMTS replace the necessity clause by a requirement that, as we show, implies it. Halpern's definition also allows agents to restrict the set of options considered. While these difference may seem minor, as we show, they can have a nontrivial impact on explanations. We also show that, essentially without change, Halpern's definition can handle two issues that have proved difficult for other approaches: explanations of absence (when, for example, an image classifier for tumors outputs "no tumor") and explanations of rare events (such as tumors).


CoRec: An Easy Approach for Coordination Recognition

Wang, Qing, Jia, Haojie, Song, Wenfei, Li, Qi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we observe and address the challenges of the coordination recognition task. Most existing methods rely on syntactic parsers to identify the coordinators in a sentence and detect the coordination boundaries. However, state-of-the-art syntactic parsers are slow and suffer from errors, especially for long and complicated sentences. To better solve the problems, we propose a pipeline model COordination RECognizer (CoRec). It consists of two components: coordinator identifier and conjunct boundary detector. The experimental results on datasets from various domains demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Further experiments show that CoRec positively impacts downstream tasks, improving the yield of state-of-the-art Open IE models.