Accurately estimating treatment effects in time series is essential for evaluating interventions in real-world applications, especially when treatment assignment is biased by unobserved factors. In many practical settings, interventions are adopted at different times across individuals, leading to staggered treatment exposure and heterogeneous pre-treatment histories. In such cases, aggregating outcome trajectories across treated units is ill-defined, making individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation a prerequisite for reliable causal inference. We therefore study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect for the treated (ATT) by first recovering individual-level counterfactuals. We introduce a neural framework that learns simultaneously low-dimensional latent representations of individual time series and propensity scores. These estimates are then used to approximate the individual treatment effects through a flexible matching procedure that avoids classical convexity constraints commonly used in synthetic control methods. By operating at the individual level, our approach naturally accommodates staggered interventions and improves counterfactual estimation under latent bias, without relying on explicit temporal modeling assumptions. We illustrate our approach on both real-world energy consumption data and clinical time series, including high-frequency electricity demand-response programs and semi-synthetic data for individuals in intensive care unit (ICU), where hidden confounding, staggered treatment adoption, and non-stationary dynamics are prevalent.

We introduce DeCaFlow, a deconfounding causal generative model. Training once per dataset using just observational data and the underlying causal graph, DeCaFlow enables accurate causal inference on continuous variables under the presence of hidden confounders. Specifically, we extend previous results on causal estimation under hidden confounding to show that a single instance of DeCaFlow provides correct estimates for all causal queries identifiable with do-calculus, leveraging proxy variables to adjust for the causal effects when do-calculus alone is insufficient. Moreover, we show that counterfactual queries are identifiable as long as their interventional counterparts are identifiable, and thus are also correctly estimated by DeCaFlow. Our empirical results on diverse settings--including the Ecoli70 dataset, with 3 independent hidden confounders, tens of observed variables and hundreds of causal queries--show that DeCaFlow outperforms existing approaches, while demonstrating its out-of-the-box applicability to any given causal graph.

In settings where ML models are used to inform the allocation of resources, agents affected by the allocation decisions might have an incentive to strategically change their features to secure better outcomes. While prior work has studied strategic responses broadly, disentangling misreporting from genuine adaptation remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we propose a causally-motivated approach to identify and quantify how much an agent misreports on average by distinguishing deceptive changes in their features from genuine adaptation. Our key insight is that, unlike genuine adaptation, misreported features do not causally affect downstream variables (i.e., causal descendants). We exploit this asymmetry by comparing the causal effect of misreported features on their causal descendants as derived from manipulated datasets against those from unmanipulated datasets. We formally prove identifiability of the misreporting rate and characterize the variance of our estimator. We empirically validate our theoretical results using a semi-synthetic and real Medicare dataset with misreported data, demonstrating that our approach can be employed to identify misreporting in real-world scenarios.

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy of the hidden confounder and that all variables are discrete or categorical. We propose methodology to estimate the causal effect in the target domain, where we assume to observe only the proxy variable. Under these conditions, we prove identifiability (even when treatment and response variables are continuous). We introduce two estimation techniques, prove consistency, and derive confidence intervals. The theoretical results are supported by simulation studies and a real-world example studying the causal effect of website rankings on consumer choices.

Deepfake detection models face two critical challenges: generalization to unseen manipulations and demographic fairness among population groups. However, existing approaches often demonstrate that these two objectives are inherently conflicting, revealing a trade-off between them. In this paper, we, for the first time, uncover and formally define a causal relationship between fairness and generalization. Building on the back-door adjustment, we show that controlling for confounders (data distribution and model capacity) enables improved generalization via fairness interventions. Motivated by this insight, we propose Demographic Attribute-insensitive Intervention Detection (DAID), a plug-and-play framework composed of: i) Demographic-aware data rebalancing, which employs inversepropensity weighting and subgroup-wise feature normalization to neutralize distributional biases; and ii) Demographic-agnostic feature aggregation, which uses a novel alignment loss to suppress sensitive-attribute signals. Across three crossdomain benchmarks, DAID consistently achieves superior performance in both fairness and generalization compared to several state-of-the-art detectors, validating both its theoretical foundation and practical effectiveness.

Many confounding-resistant domain generalization methods for image classification have been developed based on causal interventions. However, their reliance on strong assumptions limits their effectiveness in handling unobserved confounders. Although recent work introduces instrumental variables (IVs) to overcome this limitation, the reliance on manually predefined instruments, particularly in the context of visual data, may result in severe bias or invalidity when IV conditions are violated. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach to automatically learning Visual Instrumental Variables for confounding-resistant Domain Generalization (VIV-DG). We observe that certain non-causal visual attributes in image data naturally satisfy the basic conditions required for valid IVs. Motivated by this insight, we propose the visual instrumental variable, a novel concept that extends classical IV theory to the visual domain. Furthermore, we develop an automatic visual instrumental variable learner that enforces IV conditions on learned representations, enabling the automatic learning of valid visual instrumental variables from image data. Ultimately, VIV-DG inherits the strengths of classical IVs to mitigate unobserved confounding and avoids the significant bias caused by violations of IV conditions in predefined IVs. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks verify that VIV-DG achieves superior generalization ability.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of both linearly and nonlinearly coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-yourown coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on well-structured medical datasets that contain detailed patient information. However, at inference time, predictions are often made using textual descriptions (e.g., descriptions with self-reported symptoms), which are incomplete representations of the original patient information. In this work, we make three contributions.

In this paper, we focus on Novel Class Discovery for Point Cloud Segmentation (3D-NCD), aiming to learn a model that can segment unlabeled (novel) 3D classes using only the supervision from labeled (base) 3D classes. The key to this task is to setup the exact correlations between the point representations and their base class labels, as well as the representation correlations between the points from base and novel classes. A coarse or statistical correlation learning may lead to the confusion in novel class inference.

We study the problem of causal function estimation in the Proxy Causal Learning (PCL) framework, where confounders are not observed but proxies for the confounders are available. Two main approaches have been proposed: outcome bridge-based and treatment bridge-based methods. In this work, we propose two kernel-based doubly robust estimators that combine the strengths of both approaches, and naturally handle continuous and high-dimensional variables. Our identification strategy builds on a recent density ratio-free method for treatment bridge-based PCL; furthermore, in contrast to previous approaches, it does not require indicator functions or kernel smoothing over the treatment variable. These properties make it especially well-suited for continuous or high-dimensional treatments. By using kernel mean embeddings, we propose the first density-ratio free doubly robust estimators for proxy causal learning, which have closed form solutions and strong uniform consistency guarantees. Our estimators outperform existing methods on PCL benchmarks, including a prior doubly robust method that requires both kernel smoothing and density ratio estimation.