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Forecasting Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) in Arizona: A Graph Neural Network Approach

Sarabi, Ali, Sarabi, Arash, Yan, Hao, Sterner, Beckett, Jevtić, Petar

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Coccidioidomycosis, commonly known as Valley Fever, remains a significant public health concern in endemic regions of the southwestern United States. This study develops the first graph neural network (GNN) model for forecasting Valley Fever incidence in Arizona. The model integrates surveillance case data with environmental predictors using graph structures, including soil conditions, atmospheric variables, agricultural indicators, and air quality metrics. Our approach explores correlation-based relationships among variables influencing disease transmission. The model captures critical delays in disease progression through lagged effects, enhancing its capacity to reflect complex temporal dependencies in disease ecology. Results demonstrate that the GNN architecture effectively models Valley Fever trends and provides insights into key environmental drivers of disease incidence. These findings can inform early warning systems and guide resource allocation for disease prevention efforts in high-risk areas.


Dispelling the myths about artificial intelligence

#artificialintelligence

Dispelling some of the myths about artificial intelligence and the impact it may have on companies will be the focus of keynote speaker Josh Comrie at the PwC Herald Talks: Business & Bots event this week. Comrie, chief executive and co-founder of chatbot developer Ambi, has about 20 years of experience in technology, taking relatively complex constructs and simplifying and articulating them for other people. Comrie will take what he calls one of the most exciting but also misunderstood evolutions of technology and present it so that people can understand the opportunities, ramifications and some of the pitfalls. "I think the misunderstanding stems from a variety of different information sources and that misinformation has led people to then have concerns and fears. It's the uncertainty that tends to give people fear," Comrie said.


Time for business to embrace artificial intelligence

#artificialintelligence

Kiwi businesses need to get on board with artificial intelligence - despite mass adoption of the technology being years away. AI is expected to increase productivity and skilled workforce, according to a leading national report commissioned by the AI Forum New Zealand, to be released on May 2. New Zealand AI Forum executive director Ben Reid says artificial intelligence could soon become part of our daily working lives in a similar way as the internet or electricity has. Both of those changes were transformational to the way that the economy and businesses operate," Reid said. "If AI adoption follows a similar pattern to those other major technologies, then it will be a similar number of years in terms of business uptake, so between 20 and 40 years for mass adoption of AI throughout all businesses and all society." AI and machine learning will be front and centre at the next PwC Herald Talks event in Auckland and Wellington.