Approaches to bivariate causal discovery based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle approximate the (uncomputable) Kolmogorov complexity of the models in each causal direction, selecting the one with the lower total complexity. The premise is that nature's mechanisms are simpler in their true causal order. Inherently, the description length (complexity) in each direction includes the description of the cause variable and that of the causal mechanism. In this work, we argue that current state-of-the-art MDL-based methods do not correctly address the problem of estimating the description length of the cause variable, effectively leaving the decision to the description length of the causal mechanism. Based on rate-distortion theory, we propose a new way to measure the description length of the cause, corresponding to the minimum rate required to achieve a distortion level representative of the underlying distribution. This distortion level is deduced using rules from histogram-based density estimation, while the rate is computed using the related concept of information dimension, based on an asymptotic approximation. Combining it with a traditional approach for the causal mechanism, we introduce a new bivariate causal discovery method, termed rate-distortion MDL (RDMDL). We show experimentally that RDMDL achieves competitive performance on the Tübingen dataset. All the code and experiments are publicly available at github.com/tiagobrogueira/Causal-Discovery-In-Exchangeable-Data.

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test ($T^2$) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. $T^2$ modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@$k$ modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from $T^2$ are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that $T^2$ scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making $T^2$ scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

The poster child of the AI boom, valued at $850bn, needs to show strategic discipline after'casting its net too wide' If OpenAI is going to float this year, it has to get serious about its business model. The wow factor around the US company - the poster child of an AI industry boom that has stoked fears of a stock market bubble - has been long established, but when will the profits come? The developer of ChatGPT is one of the biggest startups in the world and is now valued at $850bn (£645bn). Meanwhile, it is reportedly spending $600bn on infrastructure (the amount it invests in datacentres and chips to power its AI models) by 2030. At least this is a reduction on an initial estimate of $1.4tn .

We introduce the Multilevel Euler-Maruyama (ML-EM) method compute solutions of SDEs and ODEs using a range of approximators $f^1,\dots,f^k$ to the drift $f$ with increasing accuracy and computational cost, only requiring a few evaluations of the most accurate $f^k$ and many evaluations of the less costly $f^1,\dots,f^{k-1}$. If the drift lies in the so-called Harder than Monte Carlo (HTMC) regime, i.e. it requires $ε^{-γ}$ compute to be $ε$-approximated for some $γ>2$, then ML-EM $ε$-approximates the solution of the SDE with $ε^{-γ}$ compute, improving over the traditional EM rate of $ε^{-γ-1}$. In other terms it allows us to solve the SDE at the same cost as a single evaluation of the drift. In the context of diffusion models, the different levels $f^{1},\dots,f^{k}$ are obtained by training UNets of increasing sizes, and ML-EM allows us to perform sampling with the equivalent of a single evaluation of the largest UNet. Our numerical experiments confirm our theory: we obtain up to fourfold speedups for image generation on the CelebA dataset downscaled to 64x64, where we measure a $γ\approx2.5$. Given that this is a polynomial speedup, we expect even stronger speedups in practical applications which involve orders of magnitude larger networks.

Policy gradient computes a backward pass for every sample, even though the backward pass is expensive and most samples carry little learning value. The Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) provides a forward-pass signal of learning value: \emph{delight}, the product of advantage and surprisal (negative log-probability). We introduce the \emph{Kondo gate}, which compares delight against a compute price and pays for a backward pass only when the sample is worth it, thereby tracing a quality--cost Pareto frontier. In bandits, zero-price gating preserves useful gradient signal while removing perpendicular noise, and delight is a more reliable screening signal than additive combinations of value and surprise. On MNIST and transformer token reversal, the Kondo gate skips most backward passes while retaining nearly all of DG's learning quality, with gains that grow as problems get harder and backward passes become more expensive. Because the gate tolerates approximate delight, a cheap forward pass can screen samples before expensive backpropagation, suggesting a speculative-decoding-for-training paradigm.

The AI Race Is Pressuring Utilities to Squeeze More From Europe's Power Grids As data center developers queue up to connect to power grids across Europe, network operators are experimenting with novel ways of clearing room for them. European countries are racing to bring new data centers online as AI labs across the globe continue to demand more compute. The primary limiting factor is energy--and specifically, the ability to move it. Though Europe is on track to generate enough energy, utilities experts say, grid operators broadly lack the infrastructure needed to transport it to where it needs to go. That's throttling grid capacity and, by extension, the number of new power-hungry data centers that can connect without risking blackouts.

In this paper we present a practical solution with performance guarantees to the problem of dimensionality reduction for very large scale sparse matrices. We show applications of our approach to computing the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) of any $n\times d$ matrix, using one pass over the stream of its rows. Our solution uses coresets: a scaled subset of the $n$ rows that approximates their sum of squared distances to \emph{every} $k$-dimensional \emph{affine} subspace. An open theoretical problem has been to compute such a coreset that is independent of both $n$ and $d$. An open practical problem has been to compute a non-trivial approximation to the PCA of very large but sparse databases such as the Wikipedia document-term matrix in a reasonable time. We answer both of these questions affirmatively. Our main technical result is a new framework for deterministic coreset constructions based on a reduction to the problem of counting items in a stream.

An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, i.e., a policy that is guaranteed to perform at least as well as a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and analyze a new model-based approach to compute a safe policy when we have access to an inaccurate dynamics model of the system with known accuracy guarantees. Our proposed robust method uses this (inaccurate) model to directly minimize the (negative) regret w.r.t. the baseline policy. Contrary to the existing approaches, minimizing the regret allows one to improve the baseline policy in states with accurate dynamics and seamlessly fall back to the baseline policy, otherwise. We show that our formulation is NP-hard and propose an approximate algorithm. Our empirical results on several domains show that even this relatively simple approximate algorithm can significantly outperform standard approaches.

Novelty detection is the problem of identifying whether a new data point is considered to be an inlier or an outlier. We assume that training data is available to describe only the inlier distribution. Recent approaches primarily leverage deep encoder-decoder network architectures to compute a reconstruction error that is used to either compute a novelty score or to train a one-class classifier. While we too leverage a novel network of that kind, we take a probabilistic approach and effectively compute how likely it is that a sample was generated by the inlier distribution. We achieve this with two main contributions. First, we make the computation of the novelty probability feasible because we linearize the parameterized manifold capturing the underlying structure of the inlier distribution, and show how the probability factorizes and can be computed with respect to local coordinates of the manifold tangent space. Second, we improve the training of the autoencoder network. An extensive set of results show that the approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets.