Many decision-facing stochastic systems are observed through aggregate distributions rather than scalar trajectories: queue occupancies, mobility shares, publichealth mixtures, generation-source shares, ecological compositions, and air-quality severity profiles all live on the probability simplex and evolve over time. We study causal (time-respecting online) forecasting for these distribution-valued time series and argue that the transition operator itself should be structured around the simplex. We introduce CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport), a successor-local operator that (i) retrieves empirical successors from causal context, (ii) stabilizes them with a persistence anchor, and (iii) applies a bounded local stochastic transport on ordered supports; every stage preserves the simplex by construction. We identify a structural failure mode, latent transition-kernel aliasing, where similar observed distributions evolve differently under different contextual regimes, and prove that any forecaster depending only on an aliased summary incurs an irreducible weighted Jensen-Shannon excess-risk lower bound, while the CAST hypothesis class contains the regime-aware Bayes successor; for ordered supports an additional Pinsker separation holds whenever the transported successor lies outside the no-transport anchor hull. On a suite of eleven public and simulated benchmarks spanning ecology, energy, diet, mortality, employment, air quality, severe weather, mobility, and G/G/1, Gt/G/1 queue occupancy, CAST achieves the best average rank on both one-step KL (1.27) and autoregressive rollout JSD (1.91), winning 8/11 sections on each metric against a broad statistical, compositional, recurrent, convolutional, Transformer, and modern time-series baseline set, and top-2 on all 11 sections for offline KL. Component ablations and a controlled synthetic aliasing experiment corroborate the theory. The code release is available at this link.

We present a simple yet effective fully convolutional one-stage 3D object detector for LiDAR point clouds of autonomous driving scenes, termed FCOS-LiDAR. Unlike the dominant methods that use the bird-eye view (BEV), our proposed detector detects objects from the range view (RV, a.k.a.

Very recently, a variety of vision transformer architectures for dense prediction tasks have been proposed and they show that the design of spatial attention is critical to their success in these tasks. In this work, we revisit the design of the spatial attention and demonstrate that a carefully devised yet simple spatial attention mechanism performs favorably against the state-of-the-art schemes. As a result, we propose two vision transformer architectures, namely, Twins-PCPVT and TwinsSVT. Our proposed architectures are highly efficient and easy to implement, only involving matrix multiplications that are highly optimized in modern deep learning frameworks. More importantly, the proposed architectures achieve excellent performance on a wide range of visual tasks including image-level classification as well as dense detection and segmentation. The simplicity and strong performance suggest that our proposed architectures may serve as stronger backbones for many vision tasks. Our code is available at: https://git.io/Twins.

A series of recent publications by Awasthi, Mao, Mohri, and Zhong [2022b] have introduced the key notion of H-consistency bounds for surrogate loss functions. These are upper bounds on the zero-one estimation error of any predictor in a hypothesis set, expressed in terms of its surrogate loss estimation error. They are both non-asymptotic and hypothesis set-specific and thus stronger and more informative than Bayes-consistency. However, determining if they hold and deriving these bounds have required a specific proof and analysis for each surrogate loss. Can we derive more general tools and characterizations?

In this paper, we propose a very deep fully convolutional encoding-decoding framework for image restoration such as denoising and super-resolution. The network is composed of multiple layers of convolution and deconvolution operators, learning end-to-end mappings from corrupted images to the original ones. The convolutional layers act as the feature extractor, which capture the abstraction of image contents while eliminating noises/corruptions. Deconvolutional layers are then used to recover the image details. We propose to symmetrically link convolutional and deconvolutional layers with skip-layer connections, with which the training converges much faster and attains a higher-quality local optimum. First, the skip connections allow the signal to be back-propagated to bottom layers directly, and thus tackles the problem of gradient vanishing, making training deep networks easier and achieving restoration performance gains consequently. Second, these skip connections pass image details from convolutional layers to deconvolutional layers, which is beneficial in recovering the original image. Significantly, with the large capacity, we can handle different levels of noises using a single model. Experimental results show that our network achieves better performance than recent state-of-the-art methods.

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