Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) continue to spark immense global interest, yet predictions on when they will operate safely and broadly remain heavily debated. This paper synthesizes two distinct research traditions: computational complexity and algorithmic constraints versus reliability growth modeling and real-world testing to form an integrated, quantitative timeline for future AV deployment. We propose a mathematical framework that unifies NP-hard multi-agent path planning analyses, high-performance computing (HPC) projections, and extensive Crow-AMSAA reliability growth calculations, factoring in operational design domain (ODD) variations, severity, and partial vs. full domain restrictions. Through category-specific case studies (e.g., consumer automotive, robo-taxis, highway trucking, industrial and defense applications), we show how combining HPC limitations, safety demonstration requirements, production/regulatory hurdles, and parallel/serial test strategies can push out the horizon for universal Level 5 deployment by up to several decades. Conversely, more constrained ODDs; like fenced industrial sites or specialized defense operations; may see autonomy reach commercial viability in the near-to-medium term. Our findings illustrate that while targeted domains can achieve automated service sooner, widespread driverless vehicles handling every environment remain far from realized. This paper thus offers a unique and rigorous perspective on why AV timelines extend well beyond short-term optimism, underscoring how each dimension of complexity and reliability imposes its own multi-year delays. By quantifying these constraints and exploring potential accelerators (e.g., advanced AI hardware, infrastructure up-grades), we provide a structured baseline for researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to more accurately map their expectations and investments in AV technology.

To truly understand the events of this past weekend--the shocking, sudden ousting of OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, arguably the avatar of the generative-AI revolution, followed by reports that the company was in talks to bring him back, and then yet another shocking revelation that he would start a new AI team at Microsoft instead--one must understand that OpenAI is not a technology company. It was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit dedicated to the creation of artificial general intelligence, or AGI, that should benefit "humanity as a whole." In this conception, OpenAI would operate more like a research facility or a think tank. The company's charter bluntly states that OpenAI's "primary fiduciary duty is to humanity," not to investors or even employees. In 2019, OpenAI launched a subsidiary with a "capped profit" model that could raise money, attract top talent, and inevitably build commercial products.

As human access to space expands, the influx of new actors promises to forever alter the dynamics of space. The head-to-head U.S.–Soviet rivalry that once dominated the Space Race will evolve into something more inclusive--but also messier. Aspiring space nations, such as Luxembourg, India, and China, together with new categories of nonstate actors, including large industrial players, startups, and universities, raise questions about how we should regulate space. Explosive commercialization is particularly challenging for existing space law, whose foundations were set in the 1960s and designed with national governments in mind. This rapidly changing environment is dramatized in "Little Assistance," a new Future Tense Fiction story from Stephen Harrison.

Eunice Yang first tasted entrepreneurship in her twenties, when she helped run her family's carton manufacturing business. Five years later, after the business was acquired, she enrolled in a PhD program at Pennsylvania State University. By 2014 she was a tenured professor in mechanical engineering at University of Pittsburgh–Johnstown. After being approached by a colleague in the nursing school, Yang developed an AI-based solution for preventing falls in older adults (rather than detecting them after the fact). "I said, 'I've got to make this,'" Yang tells me.

Autonomous driving vehicles may be more ubiquitous much sooner than we originally expected. The commercialization of self-driving technology is expected to gain momentum in China in the next few years, thanks to continuous technological innovation and considerable policy support, industry experts said. China has taken the lead in the research and development as well as application of autonomous driving technology around the world and it is the first country to allow fully driverless paid robotaxi operations, as the market potential of this technology continues to grow in the nation, they added. The self-driving industry is set to witness robust growth in the coming years. The market size of China's self-driving taxi services is expected to surpass 1.3 trillion yuan ($188.6 billion) by 2030, accounting for 60 percent of the country's ride-hailing market by then, said a report by global consultancy IHS Markit.

Beijing granted the latest autonomous driving permits to two robotaxi operators -- Baidu Inc and Pony.ai With the permits issued by the head office of the Beijing High-Level Automated Driving Demonstration Area, the two companies will provide up to 10 autonomous vehicles each in a designated area of 60 square kilometers in Yizhuang, a southern suburb of Beijing. A human safety operator will now sit in back seats in such vehicles to ensure safety. In April, both Baidu and Pony.ai received permission to offer driverless robotaxi services on open roads in Beijing with no human safety operator behind the steering wheel. However, at the time a backup driver should be seated in the front passenger seat to take manual control in case of an emergency.

The focus was on style this weekend at the Château de Chantilly. For the 2022 edition of the Arts & Elegance competition, Volkswagen did not come empty-handed and chose to involve "GenTravel", his new self-driving car, in the competition for the most beautiful concept cars. The body of this prototype did not have enough to impose itself with the competition of Bugatti Mistral and Aston Martin DBR22 (winner). But the presentation of such a specimen still allowed the automotive group to present the progress of its research to prepare the driverless car. Volkswagen presented its concept through a press release, before the Concours d'Elegance, but it was indeed at the Château de Chantilly that its world premiere was held. Each year, the event attracts manufacturers to present a new style study or a new model with an elegant design.

Delivery robots continue to expand their market while helping golf clubs' technological makeover. Autonomous robot delivery platform startup Neubility has launched what it says is "the world's first" self-driving robot service on a golf course. As part of that first start, Neubility has concluded an agreement with Korean Food Service Company, Samsung Welstory to provide autonomous delivery robots and plans to commercialize such delivery services for golf courses starting October. To this end, it will offer delivery robots to many locally renowned golf courses in Korea. Neubility has test-operated delivery robots since last March and have completed preliminary tests with flawless results.

SAIC Mobility Robotaxi, an arm of state-owned Chinese automaker SAIC that aims to launch a commercial robotaxi service, raised $148 million (RMB 1 billion). The funds will be used to scale its robotaxi service in China, which it will operate in partnership with autonomous vehicle company Momenta. SAIC Group led the Series B round that also saw participation from Momenta, Gaoheng Management Consulting and other institutions. The funding brought SAIC Mobility's total valuation to more than $1 billion, according to the company. The company's robotaxis are powered using Momenta's "Flywheel L4" technology, which is designed to use deep learning rather than a rules-based, machine learning approach.

The air taxi, much like self-driving cars and delivery drones, is one of those futuristic dreams that seem forever three years away. But recent progress made by leading industry players suggests the concept is finally, slowly, maturing to commercialization. The idea of an urban air taxi is pioneered by Silicon Valley startups that make eVTOLs--electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicles. But compared to electric cars, battery-powered aircraft face bigger challenges on both technical and regulatory fronts, let alone the public's acceptance. On June 21, Archer Aviation, a California-based eVTOL startup traded on the New York Stock Exchange, said it had recently begun testing a prototype called Maker with a new configuration that supports "transition flight"--the transition between an aircraft being lifted by vertical propellers and being carried by the wings for horizontal movement.