Multi-fidelity models are becoming more prevalent in engineering, particularly in aerospace, as they combine both the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models with the high accuracy of higher-fidelity simulations. Various state-of-the-art techniques exist for fusing data from different fidelity sources, including Co-Kriging and transfer learning in neural networks. This paper aims to implement a multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network model that applies transfer learning to fuse data generated by models at different fidelities. Bayesian neural networks use probability distributions over network weights, enabling them to provide predictions along with estimates of their confidence. This approach harnesses the predictive and data fusion capabilities of neural networks while also quantifying uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the multi-fidelity Bayesian model outperforms the state-of-the-art Co-Kriging in terms of overall accuracy and robustness on unseen data.

Surrogate modelling techniques have seen growing attention in recent years when applied to both modelling and optimisation of industrial design problems. These techniques are highly relevant when assessing the performance of a particular design carries a high cost, as the overall cost can be mitigated via the construction of a model to be queried in lieu of the available high-cost source. The construction of these models can sometimes employ other sources of information which are both cheaper and less accurate. The existence of these sources however poses the question of which sources should be used when constructing a model. Recent studies have attempted to characterise harmful data sources to guide practitioners in choosing when to ignore a certain source. These studies have done so in a synthetic setting, characterising sources using a large amount of data that is not available in practice. Some of these studies have also been shown to potentially suffer from bias in the benchmarks used in the analysis. In this study, we present a characterisation of harmful low-fidelity sources using only the limited data available to train a surrogate model. We employ recently developed benchmark filtering techniques to conduct a bias-free assessment, providing objectively varied benchmark suites of different sizes for future research. Analysing one of these benchmark suites with the technique known as Instance Space Analysis, we provide an intuitive visualisation of when a low-fidelity source should be used and use this analysis to provide guidelines that can be used in an applied industrial setting.

We develop a novel multi-fidelity framework that goes far beyond the classical AR(1) Co-kriging scheme of Kennedy and O'Hagan (2000). Our method can handle general discontinuous cross-correlations among systems with different levels of fidelity. A combination of multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes (AR(1) Co-kriging) and deep neural networks enables us to construct a method that is immune to discontinuities. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the new technology using standard benchmark problems designed to resemble the outputs of complicated high- and low-fidelity codes.