Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models.

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the weather system. Recent data-driven studies have shown promising results, but their performance is limited by the inadequate incorporation of climate states and a model tendency to degrade, progressively losing fine-scale details and yielding over-smoothed forecasts. To overcome these limitations, we propose TianQuan-S2S, a global S2S forecasting model that integrates initial weather states with climatological means via incorporating climatology into patch embedding and enhancing variability capture through an uncertainty-augmented Transformer. Extensive experiments on the Earth Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) reanalysis dataset demonstrate that our model yields a significant improvement in both deterministic and ensemble forecasting over the climatology mean, traditional numerical methods, and data-driven models. Ablation studies empirically show the effectiveness of our model designs. Remarkably, our model outperforms skillful numerical ECMWF-S2S and advanced data-driven Fuxi-S2S in key meteorological variables.

Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction research is growing rapidly and has shown to be competitive with the advanced dynamic numerical weather prediction models. However, research combining AI-based weather prediction models with data assimilation remains limited partially because long-term sequential data assimilation cycles are required to evaluate data assimilation systems. This study proposes using ensemble data assimilation for diagnosing AI-based weather prediction models, and marked the first successful implementation of ensemble Kalman filter with AI-based weather prediction models. Our experiments with an AI-based model ClimaX demonstrated that the ensemble data assimilation cycled stably for the AI-based weather prediction model using covariance inflation and localization techniques within the ensemble Kalman filter. While ClimaX showed some limitations in capturing flow-dependent error covariance compared to dynamical models, the AI-based ensemble forecasts provided reasonable and beneficial error covariance in sparsely observed regions. In addition, ensemble data assimilation revealed that error growth based on ensemble ClimaX predictions was weaker than that of dynamical NWP models, leading to higher inflation factors. A series of experiments demonstrated that ensemble data assimilation can be used to diagnose properties of AI weather prediction models such as physical consistency and accurate error growth representation.

Weather forecasting is essential for various human activities. Recent data-driven models have outperformed numerical weather prediction by utilizing deep learning in forecasting performance. However, challenges remain in efficiently handling multiple meteorological variables. This study proposes a new variable aggregation scheme and an efficient learning framework for that challenge. Experiments show that VarteX outperforms the conventional model in forecast performance, requiring significantly fewer parameters and resources. The effectiveness of learning through multiple aggregations and regional split training is demonstrated, enabling more efficient and accurate deep learning-based weather forecasting.

The field of meteorological forecasting has undergone a significant transformation with the integration of large models, especially those employing deep learning techniques. This paper reviews the advancements and applications of these models in weather prediction, emphasizing their role in transforming traditional forecasting methods. Models like FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, ClimaX, and FengWu have made notable contributions by providing accurate, high-resolution forecasts, surpassing the capabilities of traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. These models utilize advanced neural network architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and Transformers, to process diverse meteorological data, enhancing predictive accuracy across various time scales and spatial resolutions. The paper addresses challenges in this domain, including data acquisition and computational demands, and explores future opportunities for model optimization and hardware advancements. It underscores the integration of artificial intelligence with conventional meteorological techniques, promising improved weather prediction accuracy and a significant contribution to addressing climate-related challenges. This synergy positions large models as pivotal in the evolving landscape of meteorological forecasting.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets. The source code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/ClimaX.

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

Explainable AI is an evolving area that deals with understanding the decision making of machine learning models so that these models are more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. In particular, post-hoc model-agnostic interpretable AI techniques explain the decisions of a black-box ML model for a single instance locally, without the knowledge of the intrinsic nature of the ML model. Despite their simplicity and capability in providing valuable insights, existing approaches fail to deliver consistent and reliable explanations. Moreover, in the context of black-box classifiers, existing approaches justify the predicted class, but these methods do not ensure that the explanation scores strongly differ as compared to those of another class. In this work we propose a novel post-hoc model agnostic XAI technique that provides contrastive explanations justifying the classification of a black box classifier along with a reasoning as to why another class was not predicted. Our method, which we refer to as CLIMAX which is short for Contrastive Label-aware Influence-based Model Agnostic XAI, is based on local classifiers . In order to ensure model fidelity of the explainer, we require the perturbations to be such that it leads to a class-balanced surrogate dataset. Towards this, we employ a label-aware surrogate data generation method based on random oversampling and Gaussian Mixture Model sampling. Further, we propose influence subsampling in order to retaining effective samples and hence ensure sample complexity. We show that we achieve better consistency as compared to baselines such as LIME, BayLIME, and SLIME. We also depict results on textual and image based datasets, where we generate contrastive explanations for any black-box classification model where one is able to only query the class probabilities for an instance of interest.

Climate change and extreme weather events have made weather and climate modelling a challenging yet crucial real-world task. While current state-of-the-art approaches tend to employ numerical models conditioned on physical information collected from the atmosphere, the development of powerful deep learning models and the increasing availability of massive climate datasets have advanced the possibility of a data-driven, general-purpose foundation model for such modelling. In the new paper ClimaX: A Foundation Model for Weather and Climate, a team from Microsoft Autonomous Systems and Robotics Research, Microsoft Research AI4Science and the University of California at Los Angeles presents ClimaX, a general-purpose deep learning foundation model for weather and climate that can be efficiently adapted for various tasks related to the Earth's atmosphere. The team set out to train a generalizable foundation model capable of handling heterogeneous datasets of different variables and providing spatiotemporal coverage based on physical groundings. They built ClimaX on a vision transformer (ViT) backbone and introduced two main architectural changes -- variable tokenization and variable aggregation -- to improve its flexibility and generality.