climate change impact
The land use-climate change-biodiversity nexus in European islands stakeholders
Moustakas, Aristides, Christoforidi, Irene, Zittis, George, Demirel, Nazli, Fois, Mauro, Zotos, Savvas, Gallou, Eirini, Stamatiadou, Valentini, Tzirkalli, Elli, Zoumides, Christos, Košić, Kristina, Christopoulou, Aikaterini, Dragin, Aleksandra, Łowicki, Damian, Gil, Artur, Almeida, Bruna, Chrysos, Panos, Balzan, Mario V., Mansoldo, Mark D. C., Ólafsdóttir, Rannveig, Ayhan, Cigdem Kaptan, Atay, Lutfi, Tase, Mirela, Stojanović, Vladimir, Ladičorbić, Maja Mijatov, Díaz, Juan Pedro, Expósito, Francisco Javier, Quiroga, Sonia, Cano, Miguel Ángel Casquet, Wang, Haoran, Suárez, Cristina, Manolaki, Paraskevi, Vogiatzakis, Ioannis N.
To promote climate adaptation and mitigation, it is crucial to understand stakeholder perspectives and knowledge gaps on land use and climate changes. Stakeholders across 21 European islands were consulted on climate and land use change issues affecting ecosystem services. Climate change perceptions included temperature, precipitation, humidity, extremes, and wind. Land use change perceptions included deforestation, coastal degradation, habitat protection, renewable energy facilities, wetlands, and others. Additional concerns such as invasive species, water or energy scarcity, infrastructure problems, and austerity were also considered. Climate and land use change impact perceptions were analysed with machine learning to quantify their influence. The predominant climatic characteristic is temperature, and the predominant land use characteristic is deforestation. Water-related problems are top priorities for stakeholders. Energy-related problems, including energy deficiency and issues with wind and solar facilities, rank high as combined climate and land use risks. Stakeholders generally perceive climate change impacts on ecosystem services as negative, with natural habitat destruction and biodiversity loss identified as top issues. Land use change impacts are also negative but more complex, with more explanatory variables. Stakeholders share common perceptions on biodiversity impacts despite geographic disparity, but they differentiate between climate and land use impacts. Water, energy, and renewable energy issues pose serious concerns, requiring management measures.
Climate land use and other drivers impacts on island ecosystem services: a global review
Moustakas, Aristides, Zemah-Shamir, Shiri, Tase, Mirela, Zotos, Savvas, Demirel, Nazli, Zoumides, Christos, Christoforidi, Irene, Dindaroglu, Turgay, Albayrak, Tamer, Ayhan, Cigdem Kaptan, Fois, Mauro, Manolaki, Paraskevi, Sandor, Attila D., Sieber, Ina, Stamatiadou, Valentini, Tzirkalli, Elli, Vogiatzakis, Ioannis N., Zemah-Shamir, Ziv, Zittis, George
Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of papers on the climate change-islands-ecosystem services topic worldwide. Potential inclusion of land use changes and other drivers of impacts on ecosystem services were sequentially also recorded. The study sought to investigate the impacts of climate change, land use change, and other non-climatic driver changes on island ecosystem services. Explanatory variables examined were divided into two categories: environmental variables and methodological ones. Environmental variables include sea zone geographic location, ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate, land use, other driver variables, Methodological variables include consideration of policy interventions, uncertainty assessment, cumulative effects of climate change, synergistic effects of climate change with land use change and other anthropogenic and environmental drivers, and the diversity of variables used in the analysis. Machine learning and statistical methods were used to analyze their effects on island ecosystem services. Negative climate change impacts on ecosystem services are better quantified by land use change or other non-climatic driver variables than by climate variables. The synergy of land use together with climate changes is modulating the impact outcome and critical for a better impact assessment. Analyzed together, there is little evidence of more pronounced for a specific sea zone, ecosystem, or ecosystem service. Climate change impacts may be underestimated due to the use of a single climate variable deployed in most studies. Policy interventions exhibit low classification accuracy in quantifying impacts indicating insufficient efficacy or integration in the studies.
chatClimate: Grounding Conversational AI in Climate Science
Vaghefi, Saeid Ashraf, Wang, Qian, Muccione, Veruska, Ni, Jingwei, Kraus, Mathias, Bingler, Julia, Schimanski, Tobias, Colesanti-Senni, Chiara, Webersinke, Nicolas, Huggel, Christrian, Leippold, Markus
Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant progress in recent years, achieving remarkable results in question-answering tasks (QA). However, they still face two major challenges: hallucination and outdated information after the training phase. These challenges take center stage in critical domains like climate change, where obtaining accurate and up-to-date information from reliable sources in a limited time is essential and difficult. To overcome these barriers, one potential solution is to provide LLMs with access to external, scientifically accurate, and robust sources (long-term memory) to continuously update their knowledge and prevent the propagation of inaccurate, incorrect, or outdated information. In this study, we enhanced GPT-4 by integrating the information from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental (IPCC AR6), the most comprehensive, up-to-date, and reliable source in this domain. We present our conversational AI prototype, available at www.chatclimate.ai and demonstrate its ability to answer challenging questions accurately in three different QA scenarios: asking from 1) GPT-4, 2) chatClimate, and 3) hybrid chatClimate. The answers and their sources were evaluated by our team of IPCC authors, who used their expert knowledge to score the accuracy of the answers from 1 (very-low) to 5 (very-high). The evaluation showed that the hybrid chatClimate provided more accurate answers, highlighting the effectiveness of our solution. This approach can be easily scaled for chatbots in specific domains, enabling the delivery of reliable and accurate information.
Modeling Climate Change Impact on Wind Power Resources Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Nabipour, Narjes, Mosavi, Amir, Hajnal, Eva, Nadai, Laszlo, Shamshirband, Shahab, Chau, Kwok-Wing
Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable development and management of the energy. In this study, spatial variation of wind power density at the turbine hub-height and its variability under future climatic scenarios are taken under consideration. An ANFIS based post-processing technique was employed to match the power outputs of the regional climate model with those obtained from the reference data. The near-surface wind data obtained from a regional climate model are employed to investigate climate change impacts on the wind power resources in the Caspian Sea. Subsequent to converting near-surface wind speed to turbine hub-height speed and computation of wind power density, the results have been investigated to reveal mean annual power, seasonal, and monthly variability for a 20-year period in the present (1981-2000) and in the future (2081-2100). The findings of this study indicated that the middle and northern parts of the Caspian Sea are placed with the highest values of wind power. However, the results of the post-processing technique using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model showed that the real potential of the wind power in the area is lower than those of projected from the regional climate model.