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Event-CausNet: Unlocking Causal Knowledge from Text with Large Language Models for Reliable Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel at modeling recurring traffic patterns, their reliability plummets during non-recurring events like accidents. This failure occurs because GNNs are fundamentally correlational models, learning historical patterns that are invalidated by the new causal factors introduced during disruptions. To address this, we propose Event-CausNet, a framework that uses a Large Language Model to quantify unstructured event reports, builds a causal knowledge base by estimating average treatment effects, and injects this knowledge into a dual-stream GNN-LSTM network using a novel causal attention mechanism to adjust and enhance the forecast. Experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate that Event-CausNet achieves robust performance, reducing prediction error (MAE) by up to 35.87%, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Our framework bridges the gap between correlational models and causal reasoning, providing a solution that is more accurate and transferable, while also offering crucial interpretability, providing a more reliable foundation for real-world traffic management during critical disruptions.


Joint Open Knowledge Base Canonicalization and Linking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open Information Extraction (OIE) methods extract a large number of OIE triples (noun phrase, relation phrase, noun phrase) from text, which compose large Open Knowledge Bases (OKBs). However, noun phrases (NPs) and relation phrases (RPs) in OKBs are not canonicalized and often appear in different paraphrased textual variants, which leads to redundant and ambiguous facts. To address this problem, there are two related tasks: OKB canonicalization (i.e., convert NPs and RPs to canonicalized form) and OKB linking (i.e., link NPs and RPs with their corresponding entities and relations in a curated Knowledge Base (e.g., DBPedia). These two tasks are tightly coupled, and one task can benefit significantly from the other. However, they have been studied in isolation so far. In this paper, we explore the task of joint OKB canonicalization and linking for the first time, and propose a novel framework JOCL based on factor graph model to make them reinforce each other. JOCL is flexible enough to combine different signals from both tasks, and able to extend to fit any new signals. A thorough experimental study over two large scale OIE triple data sets shows that our framework outperforms all the baseline methods for the task of OKB canonicalization (OKB linking) in terms of average F1 (accuracy).


Web-Based Fault Diagnostic and Learning System - The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

#artificialintelligence

Web-based technology holds great potential for enabling the rapid dissemination of information and facilitating distributed decision-making. This paper presents a novel knowledge-based multi-agent system for remote fault diagnosis, which is composed of diagnostic and learning agents (DLAs), machine agents (MAs) and a central management agent (CMA). Machines are remotely diagnosed by the DLAs through the communication channels between the MAs and the DLAs. In addition, the DLAs can learn new expertise from the users, and the CMA can update the central knowledge base (CKB) shared by all the DLAs with the valuable expertise. When faults that cannot be solved with the present knowledge base occur, the DLA can acquire new knowledge, translate it into rules using a rule builder, and update the rules into the CKB.


Consistency-based Merging of Variability Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Globally operating enterprises selling large and complex products and services often have to deal with situations where variability models are locally developed to take into account the requirements of local markets. For example, cars sold on the U.S. market are represented by variability models in some or many aspects different from European ones. In order to support global variability management processes, variability models and the underlying knowledge bases often need to be integrated. This is a challenging task since an integrated knowledge base should not produce results which are different from those produced by the individual knowledge bases. In this paper, we introduce an approach to variability model integration that is based on the concepts of contextual modeling and conflict detection. We present the underlying concepts and the results of a corresponding performance analysis.


Towards a Universal Continuous Knowledge Base

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In artificial intelligence, knowledge is the information required by an intelligent system to accomplish tasks. While traditional knowledge bases use discrete, symbolic representations, detecting knowledge encoded in the continuous representations learned from data has received increasing attention recently. In this work, we propose a method for building a continuous knowledge base that can store knowledge imported from multiple, diverse neural networks. The key idea of our approach is to define an interface for each neural network and cast knowledge transferring as a function simulation problem. Preliminary experiments on text classification show promising results: we first import the knowledge encoded in an RNN model and a CNN model to the knowledge base, from which the fused knowledge is exported back to the RNN model, achieving a higher classification accuracy than the original RNN model. With the continuous knowledge base, it is also easy to achieve knowledge distillation and transfer learning. Our work opens the door to building a universal continuous knowledge base to collect, store, and organize all continuous knowledge encoded in different neural networks trained for different AI tasks.


Microsoft The Jackson Laboratory: Using AI to fight cancer

#artificialintelligence

Biomedical researchers are embracing artificial intelligence to accelerate the implementation of cancer treatments that target patients' specific genomic profiles, a type of precision medicine that in some cases is more effective than traditional chemotherapy and has fewer side effects. The potential for this new era of cancer treatment stems from advances in genome sequencing technology that enables researchers to more efficiently discover the specific genomic mutations that drive cancer, and an explosion of research on the development of new drugs that target those mutations. To harness this potential, researchers at The Jackson Laboratory, an independent, nonprofit biomedical research institution also known as JAX and headquartered in Bar Harbor, Maine, developed a tool to help the global medical and scientific communities stay on top of the continuously growing volume of data generated by advances in genomic research. The tool, called the Clinical Knowledgebase, or CKB, is a searchable database where subject matter experts store, sort and interpret complex genomic data to improve patient outcomes and share information about clinical trials and treatment options. The challenge is to find the most relevant cancer-related information from the 4,000 or so biomedical research papers published each day, according to Susan Mockus, the associate director of clinical genomic market development with JAX's genomic medicine institute in Farmington, Connecticut.


Combining Rules and Ontologies into Clopen Knowledge Bases

AAAI Conferences

We propose Clopen Knowledge Bases (CKBs) as a new formalism combining Answer Set Programming (ASP) with ontology languages based on first-order logic. CKBs generalize the prominent r-hybrid and DL+LOG languages of Rosati, and are more flexible for specification of problems that combine open-world and closed-world reasoning. We argue that the guarded negation fragment of first-order logic(GNFO)—a very expressive fragment that subsumes many prominent ontology languages like Description Logics (DLs) and the guarded fragment—is an ontology language that can be used in CKBs while enjoying decidability for basic reasoning problems. We further show how CKBs can be used with expressive DLs of the ALC family, and obtain worst-case optimal complexity results in this setting. For DL-based CKBs, we define a fragment called separable CKBs (which still strictly subsumes r-hybrid and DL+LOG knowledge bases), and show that they can be rather efficiently translated into standard ASP programs. This approach allows us to perform basic inference from separable CKBs by reusing existing efficient ASP solvers. We have implemented the approach for separable CKBs containing ontologies in the DL ALCH, and present in this paper some promising empirical results for real-life data. They show that our approach provides a dramatic improvement over a naive implementation based on a translation of such CKBs into dl-programs.


The Complexity of Circumscription in DLs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As fragments of first-order logic, Description logics (DLs) do not provide nonmonotonic features such as defeasible inheritance and default rules. Since many applications would benefit from the availability of such features, several families of nonmonotonic DLs have been developed that are mostly based on default logic and autoepistemic logic. In this paper, we consider circumscription as an interesting alternative approach to nonmonotonic DLs that, in particular, supports defeasible inheritance in a natural way. We study DLs extended with circumscription under different language restrictions and under different constraints on the sets of minimized, fixed, and varying predicates, and pinpoint the exact computational complexity of reasoning for DLs ranging from ALC to ALCIO and ALCQO. When the minimized and fixed predicates include only concept names but no role names, then reasoning is complete for NExpTime^NP. It becomes complete for NP^NExpTime when the number of minimized and fixed predicates is bounded by a constant. If roles can be minimized or fixed, then complexity ranges from NExpTime^NP to undecidability.


The Complexity of Circumscription in DLs

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

As fragments of first-order logic, Description logics (DLs) do not provide nonmonotonic features such as defeasible inheritance and default rules. Since many applications would benefit from the availability of such features, several families of nonmonotonic DLs have been developed that are mostly based on default logic and autoepistemic logic. In this paper, we consider circumscription as an interesting alternative approach to nonmonotonic DLs that, in particular, supports defeasible inheritance in a natural way. We study DLs extended with circumscription under different language restrictions and under different constraints on the sets of minimized, fixed, and varying predicates, and pinpoint the exact computational complexity of reasoning for DLs ranging from ALC to ALCIO and ALCQO. When the minimized and fixed predicates include only concept names but no role names, then reasoning is complete for NExpTime^NP. It becomes complete for NP^NExpTime when the number of minimized and fixed predicates is bounded by a constant. If roles can be minimized or fixed, then complexity ranges from NExpTime^NP to undecidability.