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Bulk-Calibrated Credal Ambiguity Sets: Fast, Tractable Decision Making under Out-of-Sample Contamination
Chen, Mengqi, Berrett, Thomas B., Damoulas, Theodoros, Caprio, Michele
Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn a high-mass bulk set from data while considering contamination inside the bulk and bounding the remaining tail contribution separately. This leads to a closed-form, finite $\mathrm{mean}+\sup$ robust objective and tractable linear or second-order cone programs for common losses and bulk geometries. Through this framework, we highlight and exploit the equivalence between the imprecise probability (IP) notion of upper expectation and the worst-case risk, demonstrating how IP credal sets translate into DRO objectives with interpretable tolerance levels. Experiments on heavy-tailed inventory control, geographically shifted house-price regression, and demographically shifted text classification show competitive robustness-accuracy trade-offs and efficient optimisation times, using Bayesian, frequentist, or empirical reference distributions.
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Neural Model Checking
We introduce a machine learning approach to model checking temporal logic, with application to formal hardware verification. Model checking answers the question of whether every execution of a given system satisfies a desired temporal logic specification. Unlike testing, model checking provides formal guarantees. Its application is expected standard in silicon design and the EDA industry has invested decades into the development of performant symbolic model checking algorithms. Our new approach combines machine learning and symbolic reasoning by using neural networks as formal proof certificates for linear temporal logic. We train our neural certificates from randomly generated executions of the system and we then symbolically check their validity using satisfiability solving which, upon the affirmative answer, establishes that the system provably satisfies the specification. We leverage the expressive power of neural networks to represent proof certificates as well as the fact that checking a certificate is much simpler than finding one. As a result, our machine learning procedure for model checking is entirely unsupervised, formally sound, and practically effective. We experimentally demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art academic and commercial model checkers on a set of standard hardware designs written in SystemVerilog.
GloptiNets: Scalable Non-Convex Optimization with Certificates
We present a novel approach to non-convex optimization with certificates, which handles smooth functions on the hypercube or on the torus. Unlike traditional methods that rely on algebraic properties, our algorithm exploits the regularity of the target function intrinsic in the decay of its Fourier spectrum. By defining a tractable family of models, we allow {\em at the same time} to obtain precise certificates and to leverage the advanced and powerful computational techniques developed to optimize neural networks. In this way the scalability of our approach is naturally enhanced by parallel computing with GPUs. Our approach, when applied to the case of polynomials of moderate dimensions but with thousands of coefficients, outperforms the state-of-the-art optimization methods with certificates, as the ones based on Lasserre's hierarchy, addressing problems intractable for the competitors.