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A Logic for Policy Based Resource Exchanges in Multiagent Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In multiagent systems autonomous agents interact with each other to achieve individual and collective goals. Typical interactions concern negotiation and agreement on resource exchanges. Modeling and formalizing these agreements pose significant challenges, particularly in capturing the dynamic behaviour of agents, while ensuring that resources are correctly handled. Here, we propose exchange environments as a formal setting where agents specify and obey exchange policies, which are declarative statements about what resources they offer and what they require in return. Furthermore, we introduce a decidable extension of the computational fragment of linear logic as a fundamental tool for representing exchange environments and studying their dynamics in terms of provability.


CEL: A Continual Learning Model for Disease Outbreak Prediction by Leveraging Domain Adaptation via Elastic Weight Consolidation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continual learning, the ability of a model to learn over time without forgetting previous knowledge and, therefore, be adaptive to new data, is paramount in dynamic fields such as disease outbreak prediction. Deep neural networks, i.e., LSTM, are prone to error due to catastrophic forgetting. This study introduces a novel CEL model for continual learning by leveraging domain adaptation via Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC). This model aims to mitigate the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon in a domain incremental setting. The Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) is constructed with EWC to develop a regularization term that penalizes changes to important parameters, namely, the important previous knowledge. CEL's performance is evaluated on three distinct diseases, Influenza, Mpox, and Measles, with different metrics. The high R-squared values during evaluation and reevaluation outperform the other state-of-the-art models in several contexts, indicating that CEL adapts to incremental data well. CEL's robustness and reliability are underscored by its minimal 65% forgetting rate and 18% higher memory stability compared to existing benchmark studies. This study highlights CEL's versatility in disease outbreak prediction, addressing evolving data with temporal patterns. It offers a valuable model for proactive disease control with accurate, timely predictions.


A Strategic Framework for Optimal Decisions in Football 1-vs-1 Shot-Taking Situations: An Integrated Approach of Machine Learning, Theory-Based Modeling, and Game Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Complex interactions between two opposing agents frequently occur in domains of machine learning, game theory, and other application domains. Quantitatively analyzing the strategies involved can provide an objective basis for decision-making. One such critical scenario is shot-taking in football, where decisions, such as whether the attacker should shoot or pass the ball and whether the defender should attempt to block the shot, play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. However, there are currently no effective data-driven and/or theory-based approaches to analyzing such situations. To address this issue, we proposed a novel framework to analyze such scenarios based on game theory, where we estimate the expected payoff with machine learning (ML) models, and additional features for ML models were extracted with a theory-based shot block model. Conventionally, successes or failures (1 or 0) are used as payoffs, while a success shot (goal) is extremely rare in football. Therefore, we proposed the Expected Probability of Shot On Target (xSOT) metric to evaluate players' actions even if the shot results in no goal; this allows for effective differentiation and comparison between different shots and even enables counterfactual shot situation analysis. In our experiments, we have validated the framework by comparing it with baseline and ablated models. Furthermore, we have observed a high correlation between the xSOT and existing metrics. This alignment of information suggests that xSOT provides valuable insights. Lastly, as an illustration, we studied optimal strategies in the World Cup 2022 and analyzed a shot situation in EURO 2020.


One-Dimensional Deep Image Prior for Curve Fitting of S-Parameters from Electromagnetic Solvers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key problem when modeling signal integrity for passive filters and interconnects in IC packages is the need for multiple S-parameter measurements within a desired frequency band to obtain adequate resolution. These samples are often computationally expensive to obtain using electromagnetic (EM) field solvers. Therefore, a common approach is to select a small subset of the necessary samples and use an appropriate fitting mechanism to recreate a densely-sampled broadband representation. We present the first deep generative model-based approach to fit S-parameters from EM solvers using one-dimensional Deep Image Prior (DIP). DIP is a technique that optimizes the weights of a randomly-initialized convolutional neural network to fit a signal from noisy or under-determined measurements. We design a custom architecture and propose a novel regularization inspired by smoothing splines that penalizes discontinuous jumps. We experimentally compare DIP to publicly available and proprietary industrial implementations of Vector Fitting (VF), the industry-standard tool for fitting S-parameters. Relative to publicly available implementations of VF, our method shows superior performance on nearly all test examples using only 5-15% of the frequency samples. Our method is also competitive to proprietary VF tools and often outperforms them for challenging input instances.


Clustered Embedding Learning for Recommender Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, recommender systems have advanced rapidly, where embedding learning for users and items plays a critical role. A standard method learns a unique embedding vector for each user and item. However, such a method has two important limitations in real-world applications: 1) it is hard to learn embeddings that generalize well for users and items with rare interactions on their own; and 2) it may incur unbearably high memory costs when the number of users and items scales up. Existing approaches either can only address one of the limitations or have flawed overall performances. In this paper, we propose Clustered Embedding Learning (CEL) as an integrated solution to these two problems. CEL is a plug-and-play embedding learning framework that can be combined with any differentiable feature interaction model. It is capable of achieving improved performance, especially for cold users and items, with reduced memory cost. CEL enables automatic and dynamic clustering of users and items in a top-down fashion, where clustered entities jointly learn a shared embedding. The accelerated version of CEL has an optimal time complexity, which supports efficient online updates. Theoretically, we prove the identifiability and the existence of a unique optimal number of clusters for CEL in the context of nonnegative matrix factorization. Empirically, we validate the effectiveness of CEL on three public datasets and one business dataset, showing its consistently superior performance against current state-of-the-art methods. In particular, when incorporating CEL into the business model, it brings an improvement of $+0.6\%$ in AUC, which translates into a significant revenue gain; meanwhile, the size of the embedding table gets $2650$ times smaller.


Google CEO Pichai Cancels 'Town Hall' on Gender Dispute

U.S. News

FILE - In this file photo dated May 17, 2017, file photo, Google CEO Sundar Pichai delivers the keynote address for the Google I/O conference in Mountain View, Calif. Pichai has canceled an internal town hall meant to address gender discrimination on Thursday, Aug. 10, after employee questions for management began to leak online from the company's internal messaging service.


Adaptive Ensemble Learning with Confidence Bounds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Extracting actionable intelligence from distributed, heterogeneous, correlated and high-dimensional data sources requires run-time processing and learning both locally and globally. In the last decade, a large number of meta-learning techniques have been proposed in which local learners make online predictions based on their locally-collected data instances, and feed these predictions to an ensemble learner, which fuses them and issues a global prediction. However, most of these works do not provide performance guarantees or, when they do, these guarantees are asymptotic. None of these existing works provide confidence estimates about the issued predictions or rate of learning guarantees for the ensemble learner. In this paper, we provide a systematic ensemble learning method called Hedged Bandits, which comes with both long run (asymptotic) and short run (rate of learning) performance guarantees. Moreover, our approach yields performance guarantees with respect to the optimal local prediction strategy, and is also able to adapt its predictions in a data-driven manner. We illustrate the performance of Hedged Bandits in the context of medical informatics and show that it outperforms numerous online and offline ensemble learning methods.