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 causality


Majority of teens and tweens now use chat bots, new research finds

Mashable

Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Safety Net Look Up Gift Ideas For Everyone On Your List Mashable @Home In My Bag Versus Trending Now Say More Creator Playbook Mashable Selects Getting Technical with Mashable All Series According to two new surveys, AI chat bots are a normal part of life for young Americans, whether for homework help or emotional support. An alarming new survey from media and tech non-profit Common Sense Media has found that children begin interacting with AI chatbots at an alarmingly early age -- with nearly half of 9-12-year-olds having bypassed the 13+ age restriction common to most LLMs. The survey is titled The 2026 Common Sense Media Census: Tech and Media Use by Tweens and Teens . In the paper, the organization conducted interviews with more than 1,200 American children aged 9 to 17, asking questions about AI use as well as television, gaming, and social media habits. More importantly, the interviews asked these young children how they feel about their own media consumption habits.


Embedded Polygon Symbolic Transfer Entropy (EPSTE): A Geometric Token and Deep Learning Approach to Estimating Transfer Entropy in Neuroimaging Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Inferring directed interactions between neural systems from EEG and MEG remains challenging due to noise, nonstationarity, and the high sample complexity of informationtheoretic estimators. Transfer Entropy (TE) provides a principled and model-free measure of directed information flow, however its practical estimation is not stable in finite data regimes (particularly as embedding dimension increases). This work introduces Embedded Polygon Symbolic Transfer Entropy (EPSTE), a framework that reframes TE estimation as a learnable problem operating on structured symbolic representations of local temporal morphology rather than raw signal amplitudes. Neural time series are decomposed into sequences of geometric primitives derived from local triplets of samples encoding complementary aspects of waveform structure such as magnitude, curvature and directional change. These primitives are discretised into symbolic tokens, yielding a compact but expressive state space over which symbolic TE is estimated. A recurrent neural network with attention-based multiple-instance learning is trained to predict surrogate-validated TE values from bags of symbolic temporal windows. The method is evaluated on source-reconstructed MEG data parcellated using the AAL90 atlas and compared against a standard symbolic baseline using identical architectures and supervision. The results demonstrate that while local window-level predictions are noisy, aggregation across trials and channel pairs yields stable directed dependencies. At the pair level, EPSTE achieves near-perfect recovery of ground-truth directed structure (Pearson r 0.99, R 0.98) and significantly lower absolute error than the baseline (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p 2.9 10), indicating that representational geometry plays a critical role in enabling practical learnability of information-theoretic dependencies.


UnCLe: Towards Scalable Dynamic Causal Discovery in Non-linear Temporal Systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Uncovering cause-effect relationships from observational time series is fundamental to understanding complex systems. While many methods infer static causal graphs, real-world systems often exhibit dynamic causality--where relationships evolve over time. Accurately capturing these temporal dynamics requires time-resolved causal graphs. We propose UnCLe, a novel deep learning method for scalable dynamic causal discovery. UnCLe employs a pair of Uncoupler and Recoupler networks to disentangle input time series into semantic representations and learns inter-variable dependencies via auto-regressive Dependency Matrices. It estimates dynamic causal influences by analyzing datapoint-wise prediction errors induced by temporal perturbations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UnCLe not only outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on static causal discovery benchmarks but, more importantly, exhibits a unique capability to accurately capture and represent evolving temporal causality in both synthetic and real-world dynamic systems (e.g., human motion). UnCLe offers a promising approach for revealing the underlying, time-varying mechanisms of complex phenomena.


Exploring Neural Granger Causality with xLSTMs: Unveiling Temporal Dependencies in Complex Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one time series can predict--Granger cause--future values of another.


Beyond Coefficients: Forecast-Necessity Testing for Interpretable Causal Discovery in Nonlinear Time-Series Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural autoregressive models are often treated as analogues of regression coefficients, leading to misleading claims of statistical significance. In this paper, we argue that causal relevance in nonlinear time-series models should be evaluated through forecast necessity rather than coefficient magnitude, and we present a practical evaluation procedure for doing so. We present an interpretable evaluation framework based on systematic edge ablation and forecast comparison, which tests whether a candidate causal relationship is required for accurate prediction. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a case study model, we apply this framework to a real-world case study of democratic development, modeled as a multivariate time series of panel data - democracy indicators across 139 countries. We show that relationships with similar causal scores can differ dramatically in their predictive necessity due to redundancy, temporal persistence, and regime-specific effects. Our results demonstrate how forecast-necessity testing supports more reliable causal reasoning in applied AI systems and provides practical guidance for interpreting nonlinear time-series models in high-stakes domains.


Causality as the Statistical Conscience of Artificial Intelligence: From Pearl's Ladder to Trustworthy Machines

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invariant Risk Minimization as a family of Causal Statistical Estimators, each identifying interventional distributions under different assumptions. Third, three AI failure modes (hallucination in large language models, reward hacking in reinforcement learning from human feedback, and degradation under distribution shift) are manifestations of causal blindness, each admitting a principled statistical remedy. Trustworthy AI is, at its core, a problem of causal statistics. The statistical community is not merely equipped to solve it -- it is the only community with the foundational tools to do so rigorously.



ACausal Analysis of Harm

Neural Information Processing Systems

As autonomous systems rapidly become ubiquitous, there is a growing need for a legal and regulatory framework that addresses when and how such a system harms someone. There have been several attempts within the philosophy literature to define harm, but none of them has proven capable of dealing with the many examples that have been presented, leading some to suggest that the notion of harm should be abandoned and "replaced by more well-behaved notions". As harm is generally something that is caused, most of these definitions have involved causality at some level. Yet surprisingly, none of them makes use of causal models and the definitions of actual causality that they can express. In this paper we formally define a qualitative notion of harm that uses causal models and is based on a well-known definition of actual causality [13]. The key features of our definition are that it is based on contrastive causation and uses a default utility to which the utility of actual outcomes is compared. We show that our definition is able to handle the examples from the literature, and illustrate its importance for reasoning about situations involving autonomous systems.


Causality Preserving Chaotic Transformation and Classification using Neurochaos Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Discovering cause and effect variables from observational data is an important but challenging problem in science and engineering. In this work, a recently proposed brain inspired learning algorithm namely-Neurochaos Learning (NL) is used for the classification of cause and effect time series generated using coupled autoregressive processes, coupled 1D chaotic skew tent maps, coupled 1D chaotic logistic maps and a real-world prey-predator system. In the case of coupled skew tent maps, the proposed method consistently outperforms a five layer Deep Neural Network (DNN) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) architecture for unidirectional coupling coefficient values ranging from 0.1 to 0.7. Further, we investigate the preservation of causality in the feature extracted space of NL using Granger Causality for coupled autoregressive processes and Compression-Complexity Causality for coupled chaotic systems and real-world prey-predator dataset. Unlike DNN, LSTM and 1DConvolutional Neural Network, it is found that NL preserves the inherent causal structures present in the input timeseries data. These findings are promising for the theory and applications of causal machine learning and open up the possibility to explore the potential of NL for more sophisticated causal learning tasks.


Causal models for decision systems: an interview with Matteo Ceriscioli

AIHub

How do you go about integrating causal knowledge into decision systems or agents? We sat down with Matteo Ceriscioli to find out about his research in this space. This interview is the latest in our series featuring the AAAI/SIGAI Doctoral Consortium participants. Could you start by telling us a bit about your PhD - where are you studying, and what's the broad topic of your research? The idea is to integrate causal knowledge into agents or decision systems to make them more reliable.