Nature rarely reveals her secrets bluntly, yet in the Fibonacci sequence she grants us a glimpse of her quiet architecture of growth, harmony, and recursive stability \citep{Koshy2001Fibonacci, Livio2002GoldenRatio}. From spiral galaxies to the unfolding of leaves, this humble sequence reflects a universal grammar of balance. In this work, we introduce \emph{Fibonacci Ensembles}, a mathematically principled yet philosophically inspired framework for ensemble learning that complements and extends classical aggregation schemes such as bagging, boosting, and random forests \citep{Breiman1996Bagging, Breiman2001RandomForests, Friedman2001GBM, Zhou2012Ensemble, HastieTibshiraniFriedman2009ESL}. Two intertwined formulations unfold: (1) the use of normalized Fibonacci weights -- tempered through orthogonalization and Rao--Blackwell optimization -- to achieve systematic variance reduction among base learners, and (2) a second-order recursive ensemble dynamic that mirrors the Fibonacci flow itself, enriching representational depth beyond classical boosting. The resulting methodology is at once rigorous and poetic: a reminder that learning systems flourish when guided by the same intrinsic harmonies that shape the natural world. Through controlled one-dimensional regression experiments using both random Fourier feature ensembles \citep{RahimiRecht2007RFF} and polynomial ensembles, we exhibit regimes in which Fibonacci weighting matches or improves upon uniform averaging and interacts in a principled way with orthogonal Rao--Blackwellization. These findings suggest that Fibonacci ensembles form a natural and interpretable design point within the broader theory of ensemble learning.

Reliable estimation of feature contributions in machine learning models is essential for trust, transparency and regulatory compliance, especially when models are proprietary or otherwise operate as black boxes. While permutation-based methods are a standard tool for this task, classical implementations rely on repeated random permutations, introducing computational overhead and stochastic instability. In this paper, we show that by replacing multiple random permutations with a single, deterministic, and optimal permutation, we achieve a method that retains the core principles of permutation-based importance while being non-random, faster, and more stable. We validate this approach across nearly 200 scenarios, including real-world household finance and credit risk applications, demonstrating improved bias-variance tradeoffs and accuracy in challenging regimes such as small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and low signal-to-noise ratios. Finally, we introduce Systemic Variable Importance, a natural extension designed for model stress-testing that explicitly accounts for feature correlations. This framework provides a transparent way to quantify how shocks or perturbations propagate through correlated inputs, revealing dependencies that standard variable importance measures miss. Two real-world case studies demonstrate how this metric can be used to audit models for hidden reliance on protected attributes (e.g., gender or race), enabling regulators and practitioners to assess fairness and systemic risk in a principled and computationally efficient manner.

Indeed, the fact that this parameter is fixed hinders the statistical consistency of the original procedure.

Random forests are learning algorithms that build large collections of random trees and make predictions by averaging the individual tree predictions. In this paper, we consider various tree constructions and examine how the choice of parameters affects the generalization error of the resulting random forests as the sample size goes to infinity. We show that subsampling of data points during the tree construction phase is important: Forests can become inconsistent with either no subsampling or too severe subsampling. As a consequence, even highly randomized trees can lead to inconsistent forests if no subsampling is used, which implies that some of the commonly used setups for random forests can be inconsistent. As a second consequence we can show that trees that have good performance in nearest-neighbor search can be a poor choice for random forests.

The prediction concatenation (PreConc) operation is crucial for the multi-layer feature transformation in deep forest, though little has been known about its theoretical property.

For an overview of random forests, we refer readers to the works of [10, 17, 26]. Empirical successes have attracted much attention on theoretical explorations of random forests.

This article proposes predictive economics as a distinct analytical perspective within economics, grounded in machine learning and centred on predictive accuracy rather than causal identification. Drawing on the instrumentalist tradition (Friedman), the explanation-prediction divide (Shmueli), and the contrast between modelling cultures (Breiman), we formalise prediction as a valid epistemological and methodological objective. Reviewing recent applications across economic subfields, we show how predictive models contribute to empirical analysis, particularly in complex or data-rich contexts. This perspective complements existing approaches and supports a more pluralistic methodology - one that values out-of-sample performance alongside interpretability and theoretical structure. Keywords: Predictive economics, Machine learning, Forecasting, Causal inference, Economic methodology 1. Introduction The evolution of economics has long been shaped by advances in analytical tools.