Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.

The global uniform aggregation of random forests leaves conditional bias along the decision boundary uncorrected. To correct this locally, we propose exploiting the structural pattern of each tree's decision path. At inference, a random forest reaches its prediction through the root-to-leaf path the sample traverses in each tree, so path-level reliability offers a finer granularity than tree-level weighting can access. We show that reliability varies meaningfully across path patterns in the boundary region identified by the forest itself, and that using this signal yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks (Wilcoxon p < 0.0001). We further devise a way to measure the sufficiency of residual information in the fitted RF's decision boundary, providing an estimate of the expected gain before the method is applied; on the qualifying group identified this way, the method delivers a mean +0.99 pp accuracy improvement with strict wins on every dataset (7/0/0). Class-recall regression -- the typical failure mode of RF correction methods -- is measured: zero minority-recall regressions and a single majority-recall regression at the 0.2 pp threshold, indicating that the correction operates in the direction of bias reduction rather than class trade-off. Our work suggests that the structural information of decision paths, previously overlooked in random forest research, can contribute to RF performance improvement.

Epistemic uncertainty is often viewed as a reducible uncertainty that vanishes with increasing data. This perspective implicitly assumes parameter identifiability and equates epistemic uncertainty with predictive variability. In overparametrized neural networks, however, model parameters are typically non-identifiable due to symmetries and redundant representations. As a consequence, substantial parameter uncertainty can persist even when the underlying function is fully identified. In this work, we analyze epistemic uncertainty through the lens of non-identifiability and characterize both discrete and continuous sources of residual uncertainty. Focusing on one-hidden-layer ReLU networks, we thoroughly analyze the resulting posterior structure and validate our theoretical insights through empirical studies.

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency - where observed variables share no latent confounders - or the pretreatment assumption, which limits covariates to those unaffected by the treatment or outcome. These requirements are often unrealistic in practice, and global learning becomes computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional settings.To address these challenges, we propose a novel local learning method for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation that avoids both the pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions. We first characterize a local boundary that contains at least one valid adjustment set whenever one exists for identifying the causal effect, and then develop local identification procedures to efficiently search within this boundary.We prove that the proposed method is sound and complete. Experiments on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets show that our approach achieves accurate causal effect estimation while substantially improving computational efficiency.

Calibration measures whether a model's predicted confidence aligns with its empirical accuracy, and is central to the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. While much recent work focuses on improving LLM calibration, the equally important question of how to evaluate it in realistic settings remains underdeveloped. Open-ended question answering (QA), the most common deployment setting for modern LLMs, is where existing evaluation methods fall short: logit-based metrics need restricted output formats and internal probabilities; verbalized confidence is self-reported and often overconfident; and sampling-based methods rely on task-specific extraction rules without a clear finite-sample target. We introduce Sem-ECE (Semantic-Sampling Expected Calibration Error), a calibration evaluation framework for open-ended QA that samples answers from the model, groups them into semantic classes, and uses the resulting frequencies as confidence. We study two estimators within this framework: Sem$_1$-ECE, the same-sample self-consistency score, and Sem$_2$-ECE, a held-out variant that separates answer selection from confidence evaluation. We prove both are asymptotically unbiased, and further show that they agree on easy questions but diverge on hard ones with Sem$_2$ achieving strictly smaller calibration error, so their gap also serves as a diagnostic for question difficulty. Experiments on three open-ended QA benchmarks across five leading commercial LLMs match our theoretical predictions and show that Sem-ECE outperforms verbalized confidence and existing sampling-based methods, while complementing logit-based evaluation when internal probabilities are unavailable.

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a foundational tool for unsupervised representation learning, yet its high-dimensional theory remains largely limited to single-component recovery. We develop an asymptotically exact mean-field theory for multi-component online ICA, capturing the coupling induced by simultaneous learning and orthogonalization. In the high-dimensional limit, the joint empirical distribution of learned estimates and ground-truth components converges to a deterministic process, yielding a closed ODE system for the overlap matrix between learned directions and true components. This characterization reveals a genuinely multi-component, initialization-driven phase structure: a decoupled regime, where estimates align with distinct components and evolve nearly independently, and a competition regime, where overlapping initializations induce orthogonality-driven conflicts, slow reorientation, and delayed convergence. Our steady-state analysis gives explicit learnability boundaries and competition conditions linking step size, data moments, and initialization. These conditions show that larger higher-order moments and competition shrink the stable learning-rate window, increase convergence times, and predict a staircase phenomenon in which the number of recoverable components changes discretely with the learning rate. Experiments on synthetic data and hyperspectral remote sensing data validate the predicted trajectories and phase behavior.

Density estimation and reliable prediction regions for outputs are crucial in supervised and unsupervised learning. While conformal prediction effectively generates coverage-guaranteed regions, it struggles with multi-dimensional outputs due to reliance on one-dimensional nonconformity scores. To address this, we introduce CONTRA: CONformal prediction region via normalizing flow TRAnsformation. CONTRA utilizes the latent spaces of normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances from the center. This allows for the mapping of high-density regions in latent space to sharp prediction regions in the output space, surpassing traditional hyperrectangular or elliptical conformal regions. Further, for scenarios where other predictive models are favored over flow-based models, we extend CONTRA to enhance any such model with a reliable prediction region by training a simple normalizing flow on the residuals. We demonstrate that both CONTRA and its extension maintain guaranteed coverage probability and outperform existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions across various datasets. We conclude that CONTRA is an effective tool for (conditional) density estimation, addressing the under-explored challenge of delivering multi-dimensional prediction regions.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) to human preferences typically relies on aggregating pooled feedback into a single reward model. However, this standard approach assumes that all labelers share the same underlying preferences, ignoring the fact that real-world labelers are highly heterogeneous and usually anonymous. Consequently, relying solely on binary choice data fundamentally distorts the learned policy, making the true population-average preference unidentifiable. To overcome this critical limitation, we demonstrate that augmenting preference datasets with a simple, secondary signal -- the user's response time -- can restore the identifiability of the population's average preference. By modeling each decision as a Drift-Diffusion Model (DDM), we introduce a novel, consistent estimator of heterogeneous preferences that successfully corrects the distortions of standard choice-only labels. We prove that our estimator asymptotically converges to the true average preference even in extreme cases where each anonymous labeler contributes only a single choice. Empirically, across both synthetic and real-world datasets, our method consistently outperforms standard baselines that otherwise fail and plateau at a bias floor. Because response times are essentially free to record and require zero user tracking or identification, our results bring promises and open up new opportunities for future data-collection pipelines to improve the social benefit without requiring user-level identifiers or repeated elicitations.

Classical design theory treats the type of an object as a given: the designer decides in advance that this will be a cup, then optimizes its parameters. This paper argues that object type is not a presupposition but an inference, something that can be determined from physical data and functional requirements jointly. We call this problem requirement-steered interface type inference and show that it is inexpressible within existing design frameworks. This paper makes two contributions that are jointly necessary and individually incomplete. The first is the problem itself, which classical design cannot pose because it presupposes the very thing our problem seeks to determine. The second is C-DMBD, a constrained extension of the Dynamic Markov Blanket Detection algorithm, which makes requirement-steered inference computationally tractable. Drawing on the free-energy principle and active inference, established frameworks in theoretical neuroscience and Bayesian mechanics, we model a product's surface as a Markov blanket: the minimal boundary through which all causal exchange between object and environment must pass. Different blanket structures correspond to different object types; different parameterizations of the same structure correspond to different functional modes of the same type. This paper is a proof of concept and a theoretical proposal. It reframes design as inference rather than optimization, and as a relation between generative models rather than a specification of parameters.

Applying pre-trained generative denoising diffusion models (DDMs) for downstream tasks such as image semantic editing usually requires either fine-tuning DDMs or learning auxiliary editing networks in the existing literature. In this work, we present our BoundaryDiffusion method for efficient, effective and lightweight semantic control with frozen pre-trained DDMs, without learning any extra networks. As one of the first learning-free diffusion editing works, we start by seeking a comprehensive understanding of the intermediate high-dimensional latent spaces by theoretically and empirically analyzing their probabilistic and geometric behaviors in the Markov chain. We then propose to further explore the critical step for editing in the denoising trajectory that characterizes the convergence of a pre-trained DDM and introduce an automatic search method. Last but not least, in contrast to the conventional understanding that DDMs have relatively poor semantic behaviors, we prove that the critical latent space we found already exhibits semantic subspace boundaries at the generic level in unconditional DDMs, which allows us to do controllable manipulation by guiding the denoising trajectory towards the targeted boundary via a single-step operation. We conduct extensive experiments on multiple DPMs architectures (DDPM, iDDPM) and datasets (CelebA, CelebA-HQ, LSUN-church, LSUN-bedroom, AFHQ-dog) with different resolutions (64, 256), achieving superior or state-of-the-art performance in various task scenarios (image semantic editing, text-based editing, unconditional semantic control) to demonstrate the effectiveness.