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Data-Driven Information-Theoretic Causal Bounds under Unmeasured Confounding

Jung, Yonghan, Kang, Bogyeong

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional treatment effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures square-root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.


Bounds for the smallest eigenvalue of the NTK for arbitrary spherical data of arbitrary dimension

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bounds on the smallest eigenvalue of the neural tangent kernel (NTK) are a key ingredient in the analysis of neural network optimization and memorization. However, existing results require distributional assumptions on the data and are limited to a high-dimensional setting, where the input dimension $d_0$ scales at least logarithmically in the number of samples $n$. In this work we remove both of these requirements and instead provide bounds in terms of a measure of distance between data points: notably these bounds hold with high probability even when $d_0$ is held constant versus $n$. We prove our results through a novel application of the hemisphere transform.


Collapsed Variational Bounds for Bayesian Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent interest in learning large variational Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) has been partly hampered by poor predictive performance caused by underfitting, and their performance is known to be very sensitive to the prior over weights.




Beyond Tsybakov: Model Margin Noise and $\mathcal{H}$-Consistency Bounds

Mohri, Mehryar, Zhong, Yutao

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new low-noise condition for classification, the Model Margin Noise (MM noise) assumption, and derive enhanced $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds under this condition. MM noise is weaker than Tsybakov noise condition: it is implied by Tsybakov noise condition but can hold even when Tsybakov fails, because it depends on the discrepancy between a given hypothesis and the Bayes-classifier rather than on the intrinsic distributional minimal margin (see Figure 1 for an illustration of an explicit example). This hypothesis-dependent assumption yields enhanced $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds for both binary and multi-class classification. Our results extend the enhanced $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds of Mao, Mohri, and Zhong (2025a) with the same favorable exponents but under a weaker assumption than the Tsybakov noise condition; they interpolate smoothly between linear and square-root regimes for intermediate noise levels. We also instantiate these bounds for common surrogate loss families and provide illustrative tables.