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Dangers of Bayesian Model Averaging under Covariate Shift

Neural Information Processing Systems

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity approximate inference via full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo achieve poor generalization under covariate shift, even underperforming classical estimation. We explain this surprising result, showing how a Bayesian model average can in fact be problematic under covariate shift, particularly in cases where linear dependencies in the input features cause a lack of posterior contraction. We additionally show why the same issue does not affect many approximate inference procedures, or classical maximum a-posteriori (MAP) training. Finally, we propose novel priors that improve the robustness of BNNs to many sources of covariate shift.



Minimaxity and Admissibility of Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In this paper, we study decision rules induced by deep, fully connected feedforward ReLU BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss. We show that, for fixed prior scales, the induced Bayes decision rule is not minimax. We then propose a hyperprior on the effective output variance of the BNN prior that yields a superharmonic square-root marginal density, establishing that the resulting decision rule is simultaneously admissible and minimax. We further extend these results from the quadratic loss setting to the predictive density estimation problem with Kullback--Leibler loss. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings numerically through simulation.


Binarized Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce a method to train Binarized Neural Networks (BNNs) - neural networks with binary weights and activations at run-time. At train-time the binary weights and activations are used for computing the parameter gradients. During the forward pass, BNNs drastically reduce memory size and accesses, and replace most arithmetic operations with bit-wise operations, which is expected to substantially improve power-efficiency. To validate the effectiveness of BNNs, we conducted two sets of experiments on the Torch7 and Theano frameworks. On both, BNNs achieved nearly state-of-the-art results over the MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN datasets. We also report our preliminary results on the challenging ImageNet dataset. Last but not least, we wrote a binary matrix multiplication GPU kernel with which it is possible to run our MNIST BNN 7 times faster than with an unoptimized GPU kernel, without suffering any loss in classification accuracy. The code for training and running our BNNs is available on-line.


Dirichlet Scale Mixture Priors for Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks are the cornerstone of modern machine learning, yet can be difficult to interpret, give overconfident predictions and are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide some alleviation of these limitations, but have problems of their own. The key step of specifying prior distributions in BNNs is no trivial task, yet is often skipped out of convenience. In this work, we propose a new class of prior distributions for BNNs, the Dirichlet scale mixture (DSM) prior, that addresses current limitations in Bayesian neural networks through structured, sparsity-inducing shrinkage. Theoretically, we derive general dependence structures and shrinkage results for DSM priors and show how they manifest under the geometry induced by neural networks. In experiments on simulated and real world data we find that the DSM priors encourages sparse networks through implicit feature selection, show robustness under adversarial attacks and deliver competitive predictive performance with substantially fewer effective parameters. In particular, their advantages appear most pronounced in correlated, moderately small data regimes, and are more amenable to weight pruning. Moreover, by adopting heavy-tailed shrinkage mechanisms, our approach aligns with recent findings that such priors can mitigate the cold posterior effect, offering a principled alternative to the commonly used Gaussian priors.



Implicit Variational Inference for High-Dimensional Posteriors

Neural Information Processing Systems

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces.