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Structural Causal Bandits under Markov Equivalence

Neural Information Processing Systems

In decision-making processes, an intelligent agent with causal knowledge can optimize action spaces to avoid unnecessary exploration. A structural causal bandit framework provides guidance on how to prune actions that are unable to maximize reward by leveraging prior knowledge of the underlying causal structure among actions. A key assumption of this framework is that the agent has access to a fully-specified causal diagram representing the target system. In this paper, we extend the structural causal bandits to scenarios where the agent leverages a Markov equivalence class. In such cases, the causal structure is provided to the agent in the form of a partial ancestral graph (PAG). We propose a generalized framework for identifying potentially optimal actions within this graph structure, thereby broadening the applicability of structural causal bandits.


ShortListing Model: AStreamlined Simplex Diffusion for Discrete Variable Generation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Generative modeling of discrete variables is challenging yet crucial for applications in natural language processing and biological sequence design. We introduce the Shortlisting Model (SLM), a novel simplex-based diffusion model inspired by progressive candidate pruning. SLM operates on simplex centroids, reducing generation complexity and enhancing scalability. Additionally, SLM incorporates a flexible implementation of classifier-free guidance, enhancing unconditional generation performance. Extensive experiments on DNA promoter and enhancer design, protein design, character-level and large-vocabulary language modeling demonstrate the competitive performance and strong potential of SLM.


Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The standard taxonomy of predictive uncertainty defines epistemic uncertainty as the part removable by collecting more data, while the standard measure identifies it with a mutual-information term. We prove the definition and the measure are extensionally inconsistent. On an explicit construction, the measure assigns all uncertainty to the epistemic class, yet no quantity of training data reduces it. Reducibility is instead a property of the pair (uncertainty, acquisition class), and the dichotomy resolves into three parts: aleatoric, sample-reducible epistemic, and mechanism-reducible epistemic uncertainty. An exact identity for the value of an observation shows that in-distribution data never reduces mechanism-irreducible uncertainty and generically increases it. Ensemble disagreement, the deployed epistemic estimate, tracks the training procedure rather than the epistemic term. It collapses to zero beneath a positive truth under consistent training, and equals hyperparameter-scaled initialization noise under interpolation. A finite-sample falsification test and seed-swept experiments confirm the theory.



The Cost of Learning under Multiple Change Points

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider an online learning problem in environments with multiple change points. In contrast to the single change point problem that is widely studied using classical "high confidence" detection schemes, the multiple change point environment presents new learning-theoretic and algorithmic challenges. Specifically, we show that classical methods may exhibit catastrophic failure (high regret) due to a phenomenon we refer to as endogenous confounding. To overcome this, we propose a new class of learning algorithms dubbed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC). These are horizon-free online algorithms that implement a selective detection principle, balancing the need to ignore "small" (hard-to-detect) shifts, while reacting "quickly" to significant ones. We prove that the performance of a properly tuned ATC algorithm is nearly minimax-optimal; its regret is guaranteed to closely match a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the achievable performance of any learning algorithm in the multiple change point problem. Experiments on synthetic as well as real-world data validate the aforementioned theoretical findings.




ShortListing Model: A Streamlined SimplexDiffusion for Discrete Variable Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative modeling of discrete variables is challenging yet crucial for applications in natural language processing and biological sequence design. We introduce the Shortlisting Model (SLM), a novel simplex-based diffusion model inspired by progressive candidate pruning. SLM operates on simplex centroids, reducing generation complexity and enhancing scalability. Additionally, SLM incorporates a flexible implementation of classifier-free guidance, enhancing unconditional generation performance. Extensive experiments on DNA promoter and enhancer design, protein design, character-level and large-vocabulary language modeling demonstrate the competitive performance and strong potential of SLM. Our code can be found at https://github.com/GenSI-THUAIR/SLM