Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system.

Autoregressively trained transformers have brought a profound revolution to the world, especially with their in-context learning (ICL) ability to address downstream tasks. Recently, several studies suggest that transformers learn a mesa-optimizer during autoregressive (AR) pretraining to implement ICL. Namely, the forward pass of the trained transformer is equivalent to optimizing an inner objective function in-context.However, whether the practical non-convex training dynamics will converge to the ideal mesa-optimizer is still unclear.Towards filling this gap, we investigate the non-convex dynamics of a one-layer linear causal self-attention model autoregressively trained by gradient flow, where the sequences are generated by an AR process $x_{t+1} = W x_t$. First, under a certain condition of data distribution, we prove that an autoregressively trained transformer learns $W$ by implementing one step of gradient descent to minimize an ordinary least squares (OLS) problem in-context. It then applies the learned $\widehat{W}$ for next-token prediction, thereby verifying the mesa-optimization hypothesis. Next, under the same data conditions, we explore the capability limitations of the obtained mesa-optimizer. We show that a stronger assumption related to the moments of data is the sufficient and necessary condition that the learned mesa-optimizer recovers the distribution. Besides, we conduct exploratory analyses beyond the first data condition and prove that generally, the trained transformer will not perform vanilla gradient descent for the OLS problem. Finally, our simulation results verify the theoretical results.

C2FAR generates a hierarchical, coarse-to-fine discretization of a variable autoregressively; progressively finer intervals of support are generated from a sequence of binned distributions, where each distribution is conditioned on previously-generated coarser intervals. Unlike prior (flat) binned distributions, C2FAR can represent values with exponentially higher precision, for only a linear increase in complexity. We use C2FAR for probabilistic forecasting via a recurrent neural network, thus modeling time series autoregressively in both space and time. C2FAR is the first method to simultaneously handle discrete and continuous series of arbitrary scale and distribution shape. This flexibility enables a variety of time series use cases, including anomaly detection, interpolation, and compression. C2FAR achieves improvements over the state-of-the-art on several benchmark forecasting datasets.

Predicting precipitation maps is a highly complex spatiotemporal modeling task, critical for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. Short-term precipitation forecasting, or nowcasting, requires models that are not only accurate but also computationally efficient for real-time applications. Current methods, such as token-based autoregressive models, often suffer from flawed inductive biases and slow inference, while diffusion models can be computationally intensive. To address these limitations, we introduce BlockGPT, a generative autoregressive transformer using batched tokenization (Block) method that predicts full two-dimensional fields (frames) at each time step. Conceived as a model-agnostic paradigm for video prediction, BlockGPT factorizes space-time by using self-attention within each frame and causal attention across frames; in this work, we instantiate it for precipitation nowcasting. We evaluate BlockGPT on two precipitation datasets, viz. KNMI (Netherlands) and SEVIR (U.S.), comparing it to state-of-the-art baselines including token-based (NowcastingGPT) and diffusion-based (DiffCast+Phydnet) models. The results show that BlockGPT achieves superior accuracy, event localization as measured by categorical metrics, and inference speeds up to 31x faster than comparable baselines.

Autoregressively trained transformers have brought a profound revolution to the world, especially with their in-context learning (ICL) ability to address downstream tasks. Recently, several studies suggest that transformers learn a mesa-optimizer during autoregressive (AR) pretraining to implement ICL. Namely, the forward pass of the trained transformer is equivalent to optimizing an inner objective function in-context.However, whether the practical non-convex training dynamics will converge to the ideal mesa-optimizer is still unclear.Towards filling this gap, we investigate the non-convex dynamics of a one-layer linear causal self-attention model autoregressively trained by gradient flow, where the sequences are generated by an AR process x_{t 1} W x_t . First, under a certain condition of data distribution, we prove that an autoregressively trained transformer learns W by implementing one step of gradient descent to minimize an ordinary least squares (OLS) problem in-context. It then applies the learned \widehat{W} for next-token prediction, thereby verifying the mesa-optimization hypothesis. Next, under the same data conditions, we explore the capability limitations of the obtained mesa-optimizer.

C2FAR generates a hierarchical, coarse-to-fine discretization of a variable autoregressively; progressively finer intervals of support are generated from a sequence of binned distributions, where each distribution is conditioned on previously-generated coarser intervals. Unlike prior (flat) binned distributions, C2FAR can represent values with exponentially higher precision, for only a linear increase in complexity. We use C2FAR for probabilistic forecasting via a recurrent neural network, thus modeling time series autoregressively in both space and time. C2FAR is the first method to simultaneously handle discrete and continuous series of arbitrary scale and distribution shape. This flexibility enables a variety of time series use cases, including anomaly detection, interpolation, and compression.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) decoding enables language models to improve reasoning performance at the cost of high generation latency in decoding. Recent proposals have explored variants of contemplation tokens, a term we introduce that refers to special tokens used during inference to allow for extra computation. Prior work has considered fixed-length sequences drawn from a discrete set of embeddings as contemplation tokens. Here we propose Compressed Chain-of-Thought (CCoT), a framework to generate contentful and continuous contemplation tokens of variable sequence length. The generated contemplation tokens are compressed representations of explicit reasoning chains, and our method can be applied to off-the-shelf decoder language models. Through experiments, we illustrate how CCoT enables additional reasoning over dense contentful representations to achieve corresponding improvements in accuracy. Moreover, the reasoning improvements can be adaptively modified on demand by controlling the number of contemplation tokens generated.

Navigation is a fundamental skill of agents with visual-motor capabilities. We introduce a Navigation World Model (NWM), a controllable video generation model that predicts future visual observations based on past observations and navigation actions. To capture complex environment dynamics, NWM employs a Conditional Diffusion Transformer (CDiT), trained on a diverse collection of egocentric videos of both human and robotic agents, and scaled up to 1 billion parameters. In familiar environments, NWM can plan navigation trajectories by simulating them and evaluating whether they achieve the desired goal. Unlike supervised navigation policies with fixed behavior, NWM can dynamically incorporate constraints during planning. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in planning trajectories from scratch or by ranking trajectories sampled from an external policy. Furthermore, NWM leverages its learned visual priors to imagine trajectories in unfamiliar environments from a single input image, making it a flexible and powerful tool for next-generation navigation systems.

Pre-trained speech language models such as HuBERT and WavLM leverage unlabeled speech data for self-supervised learning and offer powerful representations for numerous downstream tasks. Despite the success of these models, their high requirements for memory and computing resource hinder their application on resource restricted devices. Therefore, this paper introduces GenDistiller, a novel knowledge distillation framework which generates the hidden representations of the pre-trained teacher model directly by a much smaller student network. The proposed method takes the previous hidden layer as history and implements a layer-by-layer prediction of the teacher model autoregressively. Experiments on SUPERB reveal the advantage of GenDistiller over the baseline distilling method without an autoregressive framework, with 33% fewer parameters, similar time consumption and better performance on most of the SUPERB tasks. Ultimately, the proposed GenDistiller reduces the size of WavLM by 82%.

Text-to-video diffusion models enable the generation of high-quality videos that follow text instructions, making it easy to create diverse and individual content. However, existing approaches mostly focus on high-quality short video generation (typically 16 or 24 frames), ending up with hard-cuts when naively extended to the case of long video synthesis. To overcome these limitations, we introduce StreamingT2V, an autoregressive approach for long video generation of 80, 240, 600, 1200 or more frames with smooth transitions. The key components are:(i) a short-term memory block called conditional attention module (CAM), which conditions the current generation on the features extracted from the previous chunk via an attentional mechanism, leading to consistent chunk transitions, (ii) a long-term memory block called appearance preservation module, which extracts high-level scene and object features from the first video chunk to prevent the model from forgetting the initial scene, and (iii) a randomized blending approach that enables to apply a video enhancer autoregressively for infinitely long videos without inconsistencies between chunks. Experiments show that StreamingT2V generates high motion amount. In contrast, all competing image-to-video methods are prone to video stagnation when applied naively in an autoregressive manner. Thus, we propose with StreamingT2V a high-quality seamless text-to-long video generator that outperforms competitors with consistency and motion. Our code will be available at: https://github.com/Picsart-AI-Research/StreamingT2V