Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state estimation, however can have difficulty learning the parameters accurately. On the other hand, machine learning based approaches can naturally learn the state and parameters, but their applicability can be limited, or produce uncertainties that are hard to interpret. Inspired by the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method in spatial statistics, we propose an alternative approach to DA based on iteratively linearising the dynamical model. This produces a Gaussian Markov random field at each iteration, enabling one to use INLA to infer the state and parameters. Our approach can be used for arbitrary nonlinear systems, while retaining interpretability, and is furthermore demonstrated to outperform existing methods on the DA task. By providing a more nuanced approach to handling nonlinear PDE priors, our methodology offers improved accuracy and robustness in predictions, especially where data sparsity is prevalent.

Physical modeling is critical for many modern science and engineering applications. From a data science or machine learning perspective, where more domain-agnostic, data-driven models are pervasive, physical knowledge -- often expressed as differential equations -- is valuable in that it is complementary to data, and it can potentially help overcome issues such as data sparsity, noise, and inaccuracy. In this work, we propose a simple, yet powerful and general framework -- AutoIP, for Automatically Incorporating Physics -- that can integrate all kinds of differential equations into Gaussian Processes (GPs) to enhance prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. These equations can be linear or nonlinear, spatial, temporal, or spatio-temporal, complete or incomplete with unknown source terms, and so on. Based on kernel differentiation, we construct a GP prior to sample the values of the target function, equation-related derivatives, and latent source functions, which are all jointly from a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The sampled values are fed to two likelihoods: one to fit the observations, and the other to conform to the equation. We use the whitening method to evade the strong dependency between the sampled function values and kernel parameters, and we develop a stochastic variational learning algorithm. AutoIP shows improvement upon vanilla GPs in both simulation and several real-world applications, even using rough, incomplete equations.