autocorrelation coefficient
LLM-based Multi-Agent System for Simulating Strategic and Goal-Oriented Data Marketplaces
Sashihara, Jun, Fujita, Yukihisa, Nakamura, Kota, Kuwahara, Masahiro, Hayashi, Teruaki
Abstract--Data marketplaces, which mediate the purchase and exchange of data from third parties, have attracted growing attention for reducing the cost and effort of data collection while enabling the trading of diverse datasets. However, a systematic understanding of the interactions between market participants, data, and regulations remains limited. T o address this gap, we propose a Large Language Model-based Multi-Agent System (LLM-MAS) for data marketplaces. In our framework, buyer and seller agents powered by LLMs operate with explicit objectives and autonomously perform strategic actions, such as--planning, searching, purchasing, pricing, and updating data. These agents can reason about market dynamics, forecast future demand, and adapt their strategies accordingly. Unlike conventional model-based simulations, which are typically constrained to predefined rules, LLM-MAS supports broader and more adaptive behavior selection through natural language reasoning. We evaluated the framework via simulation experiments using three distribution-based metrics: (1) the number of purchases per dataset, (2) the number of purchases per buyer, and (3) the number of repeated purchases of the same dataset. The results demonstrate that LLM-MAS more faithfully reproduces trading patterns observed in real data marketplaces compared to traditional approaches, and further captures the emergence and evolution of market trends. Data have emerged as a tradable economic resource, and data marketplaces that mediate the purchase and exchange of datasets from third parties have rapidly expanded [1]. These marketplaces streamline data collection that previously required substantial cost and effort, while also providing organizations and researchers with access to diverse, high-quality datasets. As a result, they are increasingly recognized as critical infrastructures that accelerate innovation based on data that were closed within individual organizations [2]. Despite this progress, our understanding of how interactions among market participants, data, and regulations shape market dynamics remains limited. Smooth and efficient data transactions require well-designed and robust data marketplaces [3].
NGGAN: Noise Generation GAN Based on the Practical Measurement Dataset for Narrowband Powerline Communications
Chien, Ying-Ren, Chou, Po-Heng, Peng, You-Jie, Huang, Chun-Yuan, Tsao, Hen-Wai, Tsao, Yu
To effectively process impulse noise for narrowband powerline communications (NB-PLCs) transceivers, capturing comprehensive statistics of nonperiodic asynchronous impulsive noise (APIN) is a critical task. However, existing mathematical noise generative models only capture part of the characteristics of noise. In this study, we propose a novel generative adversarial network (GAN) called noise generation GAN (NGGAN) that learns the complicated characteristics of practically measured noise samples for data synthesis. To closely match the statistics of complicated noise over the NB-PLC systems, we measured the NB-PLC noise via the analog coupling and bandpass filtering circuits of a commercial NB-PLC modem to build a realistic dataset. To train NGGAN, we adhere to the following principles: 1) we design the length of input signals that the NGGAN model can fit to facilitate cyclostationary noise generation; 2) the Wasserstein distance is used as a loss function to enhance the similarity between the generated noise and training data; and 3) to measure the similarity performances of GAN-based models based on the mathematical and practically measured datasets, we conduct both quantitative and qualitative analyses. The training datasets include: 1) a piecewise spectral cyclostationary Gaussian model (PSCGM); 2) a frequency-shift (FRESH) filter; and 3) practical measurements from NB-PLC systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the generated noise samples from the proposed NGGAN are highly close to the real noise samples. The principal component analysis (PCA) scatter plots and Fréchet inception distance (FID) analysis have shown that NGGAN outperforms other GAN-based models by generating noise samples with superior fidelity and higher diversity.
Optimal starting point for time series forecasting
Zhong, Yiming, Ren, Yinuo, Cao, Guangyao, Li, Feng, Qi, Haobo
Recent advances on time series forecasting mainly focus on improving the forecasting models themselves. However, managing the length of the input data can also significantly enhance prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called Optimal Starting Point Time Series Forecast (OSP-TSP) to capture the intrinsic characteristics of time series data. By adjusting the sequence length via leveraging the XGBoost and LightGBM models, the proposed approach can determine optimal starting point (OSP) of the time series and thus enhance the prediction performances. The performances of the OSP-TSP approach are then evaluated across various frequencies on the M4 dataset and other real-world datasets. Empirical results indicate that predictions based on the OSP-TSP approach consistently outperform those using the complete dataset. Moreover, recognizing the necessity of sufficient data to effectively train models for OSP identification, we further propose targeted solutions to address the issue of data insufficiency.
Adjusting for Autocorrelated Errors in Neural Networks for Time Series Regression and Forecasting
Sun, Fan-Keng, Lang, Christopher I., Boning, Duane S.
In many cases, it is difficult to generate highly accurate models for time series data using a known parametric model structure. In response, an increasing body of research focuses on using neural networks to model time series approximately. A common assumption in training neural networks on time series is that the errors at different time steps are uncorrelated. However, due to the temporality of the data, errors are actually autocorrelated in many cases, which makes such maximum likelihood estimation inaccurate. In this paper, we propose to learn the autocorrelation coefficient jointly with the model parameters in order to adjust for autocorrelated errors. For time series regression, large-scale experiments indicate that our method outperforms the Prais-Winsten method, especially when the autocorrelation is strong. Furthermore, we broaden our method to time series forecasting and apply it with various state-of-the-art models. Results across a wide range of real-world datasets show that our method enhances performance in almost all cases.
Hierarchical Clustering for Smart Meter Electricity Loads based on Quantile Autocovariances
Alonso, Andrés M., Nogales, F. Javier, Ruiz, Carlos
In order to improve the efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems, most countries worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures, and in particular household smart meters, in the residential sector. This technology is able to record electricity load time series at a very high frequency rates, information that can be exploited to develop new clustering models to group individual households by similar consumptions patterns. To this end, in this work we propose three hierarchical clustering methodologies that allow capturing different characteristics of the time series. These are based on a set of "dissimilarity" measures computed over different features: quantile auto-covariances, and simple and partial autocorrelations. The main advantage is that they allow summarizing each time series in a few representative features so that they are computationally efficient, robust against outliers, easy to automatize, and scalable to hundreds of thousands of smart meters series. We evaluate the performance of each clustering model in a real-world smart meter dataset with thousands of half-hourly time series. The results show how the obtained clusters identify relevant consumption behaviors of households and capture part of their geo-demographic segmentation. Moreover, we apply a supervised classification procedure to explore which features are more relevant to define each cluster.
GRATIS: GeneRAting TIme Series with diverse and controllable characteristics
Kang, Yanfei, Hyndman, Rob J, Li, Feng
The explosion of time series data in recent years has brought a flourish of new time series analysis methods, for forecasting, clustering, classification and other tasks. The evaluation of these new methods requires a diverse collection of time series benchmarking data to enable reliable comparisons against alternative approaches. We propose GeneRAting TIme Series with diverse and controllable characteristics, named GRATIS, with the use of mixture autoregressive (MAR) models. We generate sets of time series using MAR models and investigate the diversity and coverage of the generated time series in a time series feature space. By tuning the parameters of the MAR models, GRATIS is also able to efficiently generate new time series with controllable features. In general, as a costless surrogate to the traditional data collection approach, GRATIS can be used as an evaluation tool for tasks such as time series forecasting and classification. We illustrate the usefulness of our time series generation process through a time series forecasting application.